[tt] [x-risk] Carbon in Atmosphere Rising Faster than Predicted
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Fri Sep 26 15:47:17 CEST 2008
----- Forwarded message from "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu> -----
From: "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu>
Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2008 08:52:00 -0400
To: For discussion of existential risks <existential at transhumanism.org>
Subject: [x-risk] Carbon in Atmosphere Rising Faster than Predicted
Reply-To: For discussion of existential risks <existential at transhumanism.org>
In addition to the methane burping - J.
[1]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/25/AR2
008092503989.html?hpid=moreheadlines
Carbon Is Building Up in Atmosphere Faster Than Predicted
James Connaughton of the White House Council on Environmental Quality
said the White House has moved the world closer to greenhouse gas
cuts. (By Rich Lipski -- The Washington Post)
By [2]Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 26, 2008; Page A02
The rise in global carbon dioxide emissions last year outpaced
international researchers' most dire projections, according to figures
being released today, as human-generated greenhouse gases continued to
build up in the atmosphere despite international agreements and
national policies aimed at curbing climate change.
In 2007, carbon released from burning fossil fuels and producing
cement increased 2.9 percent over that released in 2006, to a total of
8.47 gigatons, or billions of metric tons, according to the
Australia-based Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of
scientists that tracks emissions. This output is at the very high end
of scenarios outlined by the [3]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and could translate into a global temperature rise of
more than 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, according
to the panel's estimates.
"In a sense, it's a reality check," said Corinne Le Quéré, a professor
at the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East
Anglia and a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey. "This is an
extremely large number. The emissions are increasing at a rate that's
faster than what the IPCC has used."
The new statistics also underscore the growing contribution to the
world's "carbon budget" from rapidly industrializing countries such as
China, India and Brazil. Developing nations have roughly doubled their
carbon output in less than two decades and now account for slightly
more than half of total emissions, according to the new figures, up
from about a third in 1990. By contrast, total carbon emissions from
industrialized nations are only slightly higher than in 1990.
"What's happening is the major developed countries' plans are
converging for emissions growth that will stop and be able to come
down significantly," said [4]James L. Connaughton, who chairs the
[5]White House Council on Environmental Quality. "But that's being
completely overtaken now by the increasing greenhouse gas emissions in
developing counties. It underscores the need for a broader and more
aggressive effort by the major economies to come together."
It is unclear how much industrialized countries will be able to reduce
their carbon output in the years to come, regardless of whether
developing nations seek to restrain their greenhouse gas emissions.
The federal government predicts that U.S. fossil fuel consumption will
increase, not decrease. Japan, Canada and several other countries that
committed to reducing their carbon emissions under the 1997 [6]Kyoto
Protocol have fallen far behind in meeting their targets.
Moreover, new scientific research suggests Earth is already destined
for a greater worldwide temperature rise than previously predicted.
Last month, two scientists from the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography and the [7]University of California at San Diego
published research showing that even if humans stopped generating
greenhouse gases immediately, the world's average temperature would
"most likely" increase by 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this
century. Writing in the journal [8]Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, they based their calculations on the fact that new
air-quality measures worldwide are reducing the amount of fine
particles, or aerosols, in the atmosphere and diminishing their
cooling effect.
The IPCC has warned that an increase of between 3.2 and 9.7 degrees
Fahrenheit could trigger massive environmental changes, including
major melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the Himalayan-Tibetan
glaciers and summer sea ice in the Arctic. The prediction that current
emissions put the planet on track for a temperature rise of more than
11 degrees Fahrenheit, Le Quéré said, means the world could face a
dangerous rise in sea level as well as other drastic changes.
Richard Moss, vice president and managing director for climate change
at the [9]World Wildlife Fund, said the new carbon figures and
research show that "we're already locked into more warming than we
thought."
"We should be worried, really worried," Moss said. "This is happening
in the context of trying to reduce emissions."
The new data also show that forests and oceans, which naturally take
up much of the carbon dioxide humans emit, are having less impact.
These "natural sinks" have absorbed 54 percent of carbon dioxide
emissions since 2000, a drop of 3 percent compared with the period
between 1959 and 2000.
Connaughton argued that the Bush administration's "major economies"
meetings, a series of talks among both developed and rapidly
industrializing nations, have moved the world closer toward achieving
significant cuts in greenhouse gases because the group is developing a
common measurement system for emissions and is exploring how different
industrial sectors can commit to worldwide reductions.
"We are unquestionably moving toward each other," he said of the
industrialized and developing countries, "but there's a ways to go."
But Moss, who characterized the latest round of negotiations as "a lot
of talk but not much action," said the administration cannot expect
emerging economies to constrain their carbon emissions when the United
States has yet to adopt binding targets for cutting its greenhouse
gases. He noted that since 1990, the United States has released about
30 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere, compared with China's seven
gigatons and India's one.
"We really do have to start showing some leadership and start doing
some changes ourselves," he said. "If we did that, China and India,
which are developing rapidly, would be willing to come along."
______________________________________________________________________
Looking for simple solutions to your real-life financial challenges?
[10]Check out WalletPop for the latest news and information, tips and
calculators.
__._,_.___
[11]Messages in this topic (1) [12]Reply (via web post) | [13]Start a
new topic
[14]Messages | [15]Files | [16]Photos | [17]Links | [18]Database |
[19]Polls | [20]Members | [21]Calendar
-----The Democratic Left List-----
To post message: DemocraticLeft at yahoogroups.com
To subscribe: DemocraticLeft-subscribe at yahoogroups.com
To unsubscribe: DemocraticLeft-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com
To view messages on the web:
[22]http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/messages
[23]Yahoo! Groups
[24]Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: [25]Switch delivery to Daily Digest |
[26]Switch format to Traditional
[27]Visit Your Group | [28]Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use |
[29]Unsubscribe
[30]Visit Your Group
Yahoo! News
[31]Kevin Sites
Get coverage of
world crises.
Search Ads
[32]Get new customers.
List your web site
in Yahoo! Search.
Real Food Group
[33]Share recipes
and favorite meals
w/ Real Food lovers.
.
[nc3=5379224]
__,_._,___
References
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/25/AR2008092503989.html?hpid=moreheadlines
2. http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/juliet+eilperin/
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change?tid=informline
4. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/James+L.+Connaughton?tid=informline
5. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/White+House+Council+on+Environmental+Quality?tid=informline
6. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Kyoto+Protocol?tid=informline
7. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/University+of+California-San+Diego?tid=informline
8. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/National+Academy+of+Sciences?tid=informline
9. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/World+Wide+Fund+for+Nature?tid=informline
10. http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100000075x1209382257x1200540686/aol?redir=http://www.walletpop.com/?NCID=emlcntuswall00000001
11. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/message/31269;_ylc=X3oDMTM2aHRzbGF2BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BG1zZ0lkAzMxMjY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3Z0cGMEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQR0cGNJZAMzMTI2OQ--
12. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJxNnV1bTBhBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BG1zZ0lkAzMxMjY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3JwbHkEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--?act=reply&messageNum=31269
13. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMzI5MDBzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--
14. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJlNGwzZjhnBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA21zZ3MEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--
15. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/files;_ylc=X3oDMTJmdWNkZWg3BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2ZpbGVzBHN0aW1lAzEyMjI0MDQ2NjE-
16. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/photos;_ylc=X3oDMTJlZzh2dW5uBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3Bob3QEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--
17. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/links;_ylc=X3oDMTJmdWxsYjBvBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2xpbmtzBHN0aW1lAzEyMjI0MDQ2NjE-
18. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/database;_ylc=X3oDMTJjMHVhbDNtBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2RiBHN0aW1lAzEyMjI0MDQ2NjE-
19. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/polls;_ylc=X3oDMTJmZW1rcGliBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3BvbGxzBHN0aW1lAzEyMjI0MDQ2NjE-
20. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJlbzNqYW04BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA21icnMEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--
21. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/calendar;_ylc=X3oDMTJkcjZzMjI0BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2NhbARzdGltZQMxMjIyNDA0NjYx
22. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/messages
23. http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJkYjQ3b3RoBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2dmcARzdGltZQMxMjIyNDA0NjYx
24. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJmN3FoZnVjBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3N0bmdzBHN0aW1lAzEyMjI0MDQ2NjE-
25. mailto:DemocraticLeft-digest at yahoogroups.com?subject=Email%20Delivery:%20Digest
26. mailto:DemocraticLeft-traditional at yahoogroups.com?subject=Change%20Delivery%20Format:%20Traditional
27. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft;_ylc=X3oDMTJkb2R1N2lxBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2hwZgRzdGltZQMxMjIyNDA0NjYx
28. http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
29. mailto:DemocraticLeft-unsubscribe at yahoogroups.com?subject=
30. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DemocraticLeft;_ylc=X3oDMTJlOTgzcmRuBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzQ1OTY3NjUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1Njc2OTY0BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjQwNDY2MQ--
31. http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13oe6llk7/M=493064.12016309.12445701.8674578/D=groups/S=1705676964:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222411862/L=/B=K7HvDULaX94-/J=1222404662218826/A=3848607/R=0/SIG=10q7s9jm5/*http:/hotzone.yahoo.com
32. http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13o8ooe9v/M=493064.12016308.12445700.8674578/D=groups/S=1705676964:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222411862/L=/B=LLHvDULaX94-/J=1222404662218826/A=3848641/R=0/SIG=1312g85fq/*http:/searchmarketing.yahoo.com/arp/srchv2.php?o=US2003&cmp=Yahoo&ctv=Groups2&s=Y&s2=&s3=&b=50
33. http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13obbk90s/M=493064.12016243.13036160.8674578/D=groups/S=1705676964:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222411862/L=/B=LbHvDULaX94-/J=1222404662218826/A=5379224/R=0/SIG=11gatb1qb/*http:/advision.webevents.yahoo.com/hellmanns/
_______________________________________________
existential mailing list
existential at transhumanism.org
http://www.transhumanism.org/mailman/listinfo/existential
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
More information about the tt
mailing list