[tt] The Futurist: Nine forces reshaping America.

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Nine forces reshaping America.
http://www.allbusiness.com/human-resources/benefits-insurance-health/125798-1.html

[Note Date: Sunday, July 1 1990. Will someone please tell us how accurate 
these forecasts were.]

In this final decade of the twentieth century, America's economy,
society, institutions, and even individual lifestyles are all in the
midst of profound restructuring. A variety of forces will ensure
that this restructuring moves even faster during the 1990s.

Many of these forces will be quite disruptive, but others will offer
opportunities to strengthen the U.S. social and economic fabric.

The United Way of America's Strategic Institute, working with its
volunteer Environmental Scan Committee, has identified more than 100
specific trends in society and grouped them into nine major
"changedrivers" for the 1990s. The list of changedrivers on the
following pages represents the Institute's best collective judgment
of the key developments likely to affect American society in the
next decade. Following the description of each changedriver is a
listing of the social, economic, political, and technological
forecasts that constitute the larger changedriver.

1. The Maturation Of America

This trend starts with the maturing of the baby-boom generation as
these individuals move into their prime family-, household-, and
asset-formation phase. It also includes trends pertaining to the
"graying of America" -- the growth of the age-65-and-over
population, a more-active, more-affluent group than existed in
previous generations. Accompanying the aging of the population is
the related psychological phenomenon of a maturing and increasing
sophistication of tastes. The United States is leaving an era
obsessed with youth and moving into one that will be more realistic,
more responsible, and more tolerant of diversity.

Social
* Growth of the U.S. population will continue to slow.
* The U.S. population will continue to grow older as the median age
of the population continues to rise.
* The proportion of middle-aged Americans (aged 35 to 54) will
sharply increase in the 1990s.
* The proportion of persons aged 65 to 74 will remain stable through
2005.
* The proportion of Americans over age 75 will increase
dramatically.
* The "baby boomlet" will slow in the mid-1990s.
* Colleges and universities will increasingly recruit older
Americans (aged 65 and older) as students.
* College-student populations will continue to age.

Economic
* A better-educated labor force will be necessary to increase U.S.
economic productivity.
* The median income of families will continue to grow.
* The savings rate will increase.
* The labor force will continue to grow older and more experienced.
* Businesses will increasingly offer older workers and retirees
flexible work schedules and retirement options in an effort to
reverse the trend toward early retirement.
* More middle-aged workers will start their own firms as they find
opportunities for promotion limited.

Political
* Political activism will be more pragmatic and measured, reflecting
the maturing of society.

Technological
* Research will seek more ways to ease the effects of aging.

2. The Mosaic Society

Rising levels of education, increased ethnic diversity, a growing
population of elderly individuals, more single-person households,
and other diversity-related trends are moving American society away
from "mass society" toward a "mosaic society." Technology is
enabling products to be customized for each of the parts of the
mosaic, further reinforcing their distinctive identities. Alvin
Toffler, author of Future Shock, refers to this phenomenon as
"demassification." The mosaic, however, is not static; rather, it is
similar to an ever-changing kaleidoscope.

Social
* Growth of the U.S. population will be increasingly dependent upon
immigration.
* The number of legal and illegal immigrants entering the United
States will continue to increase.
* There will continue to be greater proportional growth among
minorities.
* Immigrant populations will increasingly affect American
classrooms.
* The use of alternative educational options, such as year-round
schools and magnet schools, will continue rising.
* School systems will increasingly use alternative methods of
teacher certification to alleviate teacher shortage.

Economic
* The mass market will remain fragmented into market niches that
reflect the increasing diversity of the U.S. population.
* The urban, minority underclass will continue to grow; their
situation will not be improved by general economic growth.
* The labor force will be increasingly multicultural and
multilingual.
* Growth of women's labor-force-participation rate will slow.
* Women's representation in top corporate positions will increase
substantially.
* Immigrants will constitute an increasing share of the labor force.
* Child-care benefits and flexible hours will be more available in
the workplace.
* Workers will have more choice in their benefits, but will also
bear an increasing share of benefit costs.

Political
* Special-interest groups will grow, both in numbers and influence.
* Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics will seek greater
political influence commensurate with their growing share of the
U.S. population.

Technological
* Advances in information technology will enable individuals to
obtain products, services, publications, and information that are
more narrowly targeted at their particular ethnic characteristics,
economic status, and personal preferences.

3. Redefinition of Individual and Societal Roles

There will be a blurring of the boundaries that have traditionally
defined the roles of the public sector versus the private sector, as
well as individual versus institutional responsibilities.

Public sector versus private sector. The impetus for redefinition of
public-sector and private-sector roles is coming from both sides.
The federal budget deficit will continue to constrain federal action
on social problems, and both the federal and state governments are
contracting with private-sector firms to perform many functions that
have traditionally been carried out by government. At the same time,
business is more directly involved in social issues (such as
education, illiteracy, substance abuse, and AIDS), becoming a major
player in an arena once dominated by government and the voluntary
sector.

Individual versus institutional. Individuals are taking on a greater
share of responsibility in many areas and are relying less on large
institutions. The growing emphasis on wellness activities is an
example of the shift of responsibility for personal health away from
doctors and hospitals and more toward the individual. Individuals
are also taking on more responsibility for their employment and
careers, exemplified by the growth of entrepreneurial activity,
self-employment, and multiple careers. Individuals are less willing
to wait for large institutions to provide opportunities and more
willing to act on their own.

Social
* Wellness activities will become increasingly important in the
lifestyles of Americans.
* There will be increased growth of the self-help movement.

Economic
* The traditional roles of government and business are being blurred
as business spending on social-problem initiatives increases.
* Employees in large firms will have increased autonomy and
discretion and will be in closer contact with customers.
* Union membership will continue declining in most industries.

Political
* Decentralization of government will continue, but at a slower
pace.
* The private sector will continue to perform, on a contract basis,
services formerly carried out by government.
* Federal budget problems will increase the growth of private-sector
alternatives to some federal programs.
* Despite growing pressure to reduce the budget deficit, more
government funding of some human services will occur.
* Selective re-regulation of certain industrial activities is
likely.
* Pressure to further deregulate rapidly growing industries (such as
telecommunications) is likely.
* State government influence on social issues will increase, and the
federal government's influence will decline.
* More referenda will be held on a wider variety of issues.

Technological
* Computer technology will increasingly allow very small firms to
compete successfully with large ones.

4. The Information-Based Economy

Information technologies are changing the way people communicate,
work, and play. These changes in daily activities, driven by
advances in computers and microelectronics, are beginning to create
a new pattern of economic and societal organization.

The information-based economy will take many decades to become
full-blown, but the magnitude of its impact should be kept in mind
when examining information technology trends. Although information
technology is providing new ways to do things already done, its most
profound effect is that it is creating a new context in which it is
necessary to try the unprecedented because the usual no longer
works.

Social
* Concern about the scientific literacy of the U.S. population will
increase.
* Concern about individual privacy will increase as more data are
collected electronically.
* Electronic gadgetry will quicken the pace of life.
* Technological "haves" and "have-nots" will develop in society.

Economic
* Business will increasingly operate through networks -- rather than
be consolidated under one roof -- to produce a growing range of
products and services.
* A new corporate "elite" -- the highly educated "gold collar"
knowledge worker -- will emerge.
* Electronic banking services will grow, particularly among small
businesses.

Technological
* Use of information technology as a teaching and learning aid will
increase.
* The telephone will increasingly become the gateway to
sophisticated communications services.
* Video, audio, and data transmission will increasingly be
integrated into a single, fiber-optic telephone system.
* A "mobile communications environment" will develop and be
institutionalized as portable phones, facsimile machines, beepers,
and computers make 24-hour accessibility possible.
* Digital sketch pads, optical scanners, and voice-recognition
system systems will gain increasing use as "keyboardless" data-entry
devices.
* In some urban areas, virtually every individual will have contact
with computers in the home or workplace by the year 2000.
* Automation will increase the pressure on executive decision makers
to become more "hands-on" managers.
* Information overload, and the degradation of the quality of
information, will become increasingly important issues.

5. Globalization

The movement of products, capital, technolgoy, information -- and
ideas -- around the world is continuing to increase. This is having
several significant effects.

There is increasing foreign ownership of the U.S. industrial base
and a growing presence of U.S. firms in other countries.

The relative economic power of the United States is declining as
other nations develop mature industrial economies.

U.S. consumers are experiencing more cultures through travel,
imports, immigration, international organizations, and the media. An
increasing globalization of tastes and ideas is occuring.

Economic
* U.S. prosperity will be increasingly dependent on trade with, and
the economic well-being of, other nations.
* Greater international competition for markets will occur.
* Foreign investment and foreign trade will provide an increasing
share of U.S. economic and employment growth.
* U.S. imports will exceed exports.
* Resolving the Third World debt crisis will become increasingly
important in sustaining world economic growth.
* Economic rather than military strength will increasingly determine
which nations are considered "superpowers."
* U.S. jobs and industries will face growing competition from
nations with cheaper labor costs and increasingly skilled labor
forces.
* Japan will assume a larger role in world economic and
technological leadership.
* The Pacific Rim, the European Community, and the United States and
Canada will likely emerge as regional trading blocs.
* Multilateral coordination of the world's financial systems will
improve.

Political
* National political leadership will face the task of developing a
political consensus on the U.S. role in a global economy that the
United States no longer dominates.
* Relations between the United States and the Soviet Union will
continue to improve.
* The sovereign power of individual nations will continue to decline
because of increasing globalization of markets, communications, and
finance.

Technological
* The U.S. lead in the global technology race may erode further and
is certain to be strongly challenged.
* Global leadership in science and technology will increasingly
determine economic leadership.

6. Personal and Environmental Health

Quality-of-life issues, particularly the health of the individual
and the state of the environment, are beginning to emerge as key
areas of public concern. During the 1990s, there is likely to be a
sharper public perception of issues such as the threat of global
warming from the greenhouse effect and ozone depletion. What has not
yet accompanied these concerns is a revival of interest in energy
conservation. Energy use is up worldwide, and oil prices are again
rising as well.

There will also be increased attention on the link between personal
behavior and disease risk. The United States currently spends about
$1.5 billion a day on health care, or nearly 12% of the gross
national product, and that proportion is expected to reach 15% by
the year 2000. The health of Americans on average has been
improving, but the exceptions -- among the poor and minorities --
will be of growing concern in the coming years.

Social
* The quality of, and access to, the U.S. health-care system will
continue to be questioned.
* The AIDS epidemic will become increasingly critical.
* Interest in resolving the issue of providing long-term care will
grow.
* Issues involving medical ethics will become increasingly
important.
* A rise in the practice of holistic medicine will occur.

Economic

* The increasing cost of environmental cleanup and the rising price
and lessened availability of oil will become increasingly important
long-term limiting factors for the U.S. economy.
* The ozone-depletion problem will persist for decades and will
possibly prove insoluble.
* Within 10 to 20 years, without substantial reduction in
carbon-dioxide emissions, climatic changes from the greenhouse
effect may significantly disrupt some regional economies.

Political
* The NIMBY ("Not in My Back Yard") movement will grow at
neighborhood and community level. The movement seeks to avoid the
burden of "public services" such as social-service facilities and
waste-disposal facilities.
* Global environmental problems will be increasingly addressed on a
multi-lateral basis.

Technological
* Potential abuse of medical technology such as genetic testing will
become the focus of increasing concern.
* Concern will grow about the health effects of working at computer
terminals, including stress, eye damage, and hand-muscle problems.
* Mapping of the human genome will improve the ability to diagnose
serious illness.
* Biology-based industries will grow in economic importance.

7. Economic Restructuring

Global economic competition, deregulation, new information
technologies, and diverse and changing consumer tastes are forcing
an ongoing restructuring of American business. This is happening at
may levels:

Global economic activity is spread among more nations as newly
industrializing countries emerge with robust economies.

Entire industries are being globalized and restructured as new
entrants and new technologies change the rules of the game.

Large corporations are cutting management layers and operating
more like networks than hierarchies.

Small firms are being created in unprecedented numbers.

Firms of all sizes are continuously reassessing their structure
and offerings because market conditions are so volatile.

Social
* The aging of the population and the growth of minority populations
will reshape consumer markets.
* U.S. population growth will continue to be concentrated in the
South and the West -- those regions where economic growth is
strongest.

Economic
* Small firms will continue to create a significant share of new
jobs.
* Both the very large (multinational) and the very small (niche)
firms will add substantial employment in the 1990s; mid-sized firms
will grow less quickly.
* Manufacturing output will continue growing, but employment will
continue to fall.
* American corporations will continue to streamline factory
proceeses and pare management layers to increase productivity.
* Electric utilities will remain wary of making large investments in
new generating capacity.
* Family farms will recover somewhat from depression but will face
increased international competions.

Technological
* New industries that make use of advances in microelectronics and
biology-based products will emerge.
* The rapid pace of technological change will continue.

8. Family and Home Redefined

Many functions that once were handled predominantly by families --
such as meal preparation and child care -- are increasingly offered
as services by commercial concerns such as restaurants and day-care
centers. At the same time, activities formerly available only
outside the home -- such as shopping and viewing movies -- have been
brought into the home through videos and cable television.
Information technologies bring consumer services such as shopping
and banking into more homes and enable more Americans to work or run
businesses from their homes.

Meanwhile, the family has become a diverse institution, with many
single-person households, single-parent families, and two-income
families. In a rapidly changing, often chaotic outside world, the
family will grow in importance as a stabilizing force. Yet, at the
same time, the evident stresses on family life may make the family
less able to fulfill its support-giving role without help from
outside the family structure. Government assistance with child care
is one example of such help.

Social
* Family households will continue to outnumber nonfamily households.
* Growth in the number of single-person households will slow.
* Growth in the number of childless married-couple households will
slow.
* The increase in the number o male-headed single-parent families
will slow but will still be high.
* The divorce rate will decline.

Economic
* The number of temporary employees and home workers will increase.
* Income inequality among families will increase, with two-income
households gaining and single-parent households falling behind.
* The number of self-employed will grow; many will work at home
using computers.

Political
* National and/or state legislative action is probable in the
following areas: issues involving children, including child care and
poor children; education; welfare reform; and long-term care.

Technological
* The availability of inhome computer-based services such as
banking, shopping, and communications will change the role of the
home in society.
* Information technology will permeate the barrier between work and
home, producing an indeterminate workday.
* Electronic devices in the home such as personal computers,
facsimile machines, VCRs, and similar equipment will increase,
becoming so pervasive and user-friendly that they will no longer be
called "high tech."

9. Rebirth of Social Activism

After a decade of concentration on business and economic growth, the
public-agenda pendulum is swinging decisively in the direction of
social concerns. Environmental degradation, deterioration of public
infrastructure (such as roads and water-supply systems), pervasive
homelessness, lack of affordable housing, racial tensions, and
extensive child poverty are some of the issues that are gaining
increased attention.

Accompanying this shift is likely to be less tolerance for business
actions that the public perceives as harmful to society, such as
financial actions that harm the economy and pollution that threatens
public health.

Social

* Family violence (child, spouse, and elder abuse) will remain a
critical problem.
* Violence by young people will rise.
* Community safety and home security will raise increasing concern.
* High concern about substance abuse will continue.
* There will be greater concern among Americans about issues that
have a direct effect on their communities, such as AIDS, crime, drug
abuse, and homelessness (as opposed to "national" issues).

Economic
* The national poverty rate is likely to increase.
* The number of poor, single-parent households is likely to
increase.
* The number of homeless Americans will increase.

Political
* A conservative mood, tempered by an increase in attention to
social issues, will continue.
* More coalitions involving business, government, education, and the
nonprofit sector will emerge to address social problems seen as
beyond the government's ability to address alone.
* Concern about business ethics will increase, including corporate
responsibility to the environment and to the financial system as a
whole.
* Environmental issues will gain greater prominence.
* Entrepreneurial activity directed at solving social problems will
become more widespread.