[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Sep 2 14:05:13 UTC 2008
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Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:07:21 -0400
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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]Repeatable 100 Tesla Magnet under Construction
2. [4]Singapore heart stem cell transplant could replace heart bypass
surgery
3. [5]Various forecasts of China's Economic Growth
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]Repeatable 100 Tesla Magnet under Construction
[9]a 100 Tesla magnet is needed to test the properties of new
high-temperature superconductors like iron oxyarsenide, which may
improve the performance of MRI machines and high-voltage power lines
while lowering their cost. A 100-T magnet would also let you conduct
certain zero-gravity experiments without traveling into space and let
you develop magnetic propulsion systems that could eventually replace
those that burn rocket fuel.
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The Magnet Lab is close to reaching the material tensile strength
needed to repeatedly break the 100-T barrier. It will have to resist
enormous Lorentz forces--the electromagnetic push on electrons that
attempts to force them in a direction perpendicular to the flow of
current. In a 100-T magnet hese forces are "equivalent to the
explosive force of 200 sticks of dynamite packed into a volume of
space the size of a marble."
The electromagnet will be made of two pieces--a thick, hollow
cylinder, called an outsert, that's 1.5 meters in diameter by 1.5
meters tall, and an insert just big enough to fit inside the
outsert's 225-millimeter bore. The outsert will be powered by a
1.4-gigawatt generator and produce fields between 40 T and 44 T,
while the insert will draw enough current from a 2-megajoule
capacitor bank to generate fields up to 60 T. The outsert is never
powered up for more than 2 seconds at a time, during which the
insert can deliver multiple 20-millisecond bursts. Enough energy is
transferred during those 2 seconds to raise the magnet's
temperature from the cryogenic cold of liquid nitrogen to nearly
200 °C. It takes an hour to cool the magnet enough to start another
round of pulses. Boebinger says the design and composition will
allow researchers to get roughly 10 000 pulses out of the $8
million outsert magnet and about 100 pulses before a $20 000 insert
magnet is destroyed.
[16]Strong magnets at he National High Magnetic Field Lab witnessed
new electronic states of matter what physicists call a "collective
state".
If you can imagine, it's as if we were looking at passengers
scrambling through Grand Central Station in New York, watching them
run in different directions. All of a sudden, the whistle blows and
we see them run to the same train. This is a simple example of a
sudden transition to collective behavior," Ong said.
[17]Lab info on the 100-Tesla multishot magnet project
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[35]Singapore heart stem cell transplant could replace heart bypass surgery
[36]Singapore's National Heart Centre should start human clinical
trials for stem cells for treating heart disease in one or two years.
Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death worldwide.
[37]This follows recent news of using stem cells to create an
unlimited disease free blood supply and the possibility of using stem
cells for regeneration, rejuvenation and life extension.
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If successful the new stem cell (heart cell) transplant method
pioneered by the National Heart Centre (NHC), will help patients
avoid the high-risk heart transplant and even eliminate the need
for bypass procedures.
The method involves taking stem cells from the patient's heart,
cultivating them in a special solution to differentiate them into
heart muscle stem cells and then transplanting these differentiated
cells back into the patient's heart.
While there is now a race to use stem cell therapy in the treatment
of heart failure patients, most of the programmes are in their
early phases.
The NHC, with its pre-clinical study results that it claims are
"better than any other in the world" and proprietary technology to
manipulate the cells, thinks it has a good chance at early success.
The NHC study has shown that heart pump action is significant in
mice which have received the heart stem cells. A total of 43
patients undergoing heart bypass surgeries donated their heart stem
cells for the project.
"These cells tend to be clever and can move by themselves by
migration, and tend to move into areas that require them most,"
said Dr Wong.
In the study, some 30 per cent of stem cells were converted into
heart muscle cells under a patented method used by the NHC. This
compares well against the few out of "millions" of whole stem cells
poured into the heart used in conventional methods, the NHC said.
Another potential benefit of the NHC's research is that a heart
failure patient can harvest his own stem cells to be used for his
own treatment -- doing away with the need for immunosuppressants,
or drugs that help a transplant patient cope with rejection of
donor tissue.
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[61]Various forecasts of China's Economic Growth
[62]Several economists have projected future economic growth for China
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Albert Keidel at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in
Washington says that when Japan was at China's current level of GDP of
just over $2,000 per capita, and headed for $10,000, it sustained
growth rates of 8-10 percent. So did South Korea and Taiwan. Keidel
expects China to grow more swiftly than its three neighbors did at the
same stage of development. The result, he says, is that China will
match America for economic size by 2035 and be twice as big by
mid-century.
Japan in the late 1960s "one of the most polluted countries in the
world". Japan, however, started to tackle its pollution, giving its
environmental agency de facto cabinet status in 1971. China, now
following suit, did the same earlier this year.By some measures, China
is even ahead of the game, Keidel argues. By 2004 in Beijing, ambient
sulfur dioxide had already fallen far below Japan's peak levels in the
mid-1960s.
China encouraged early improvements in the business climate for
foreign investment that Japan and South Korea never allowed.
Aging Population Pessimists still project 7.5% growth
Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation, draws a much gloomier
lesson from Japan's experience. The number of Chinese in the
industrious 15-24 age cohort grew by 20 million between 2000-2005, but
the increase in 2010 will be just 1 million on U.N. projections. It
will then drop sharply, as a consequence of China's one-child policy,
and the country's overall working population will shrink after 2015.
Dong Tao of Credit Suisse also cites Chinese demographic trends as a
key reason why Chinese GDP growth is likely to head down to 7.5
percent in 2011-2020 from around 10 percent now.
Urbanization and Producivity
Arthur Kroeber, head of the Dragonomics consultancy in Beijing, is
convinced that urbanization, productivity gains and fast-rising
incomes bode well for continued growth in China. [This [69]site is
also optimistic about urbanization and productivity gains] "Put all
that together and you can certainly get 8 or 9 percent GDP growth in
China for the next few years," he said.
The pessimistic 7.5% 2011-2020 case would only delay the following
projection by 1 or two years.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 24.66 11.9% 7.3 3.38 3.7 13.8
Jul08 26.3 6.85 3.83 4.2 Past Germany
Oct08 26.7 6.65 4.0 4.45
2008 27.3 10.2% 6.35 4.3 4.8 14.0
2009 30.1 9.8% 5.62 5.4 5.9 14.2 Pass Japan
2010 33.7 9.5% 5.11 6.6 7.1 14.6
2011 37.0 9.5% 4.64 8.0 8.5 15.0
2012 40.6 9.5% 4.26 9.5 10.0 15.4
2013 44.2 9.0% 3.91 11.3 11.8 15.9
2014 48.2 9.0% 3.72 13.0 13.5 16.4
2015 52.0 8.0% 3.54 14.7 15.2 16.9
2016 56.2 8.0% 3.53 16.7 17.2 17.4 Passing USA
2017 60.4 7.5% 3.38 18.8 19.4 17.9 Past USA
2018 64.2 7.0% 3.20 20.9 21.5 18.4
2019 69.2 7.0% 3.09 23.0 23.6 19.0
2020 74.0 7.0% 3.0 25.2 25.8 19.6
2021 78.4 6.0% 2.9 27.2 27.8 20.2
2022 83.1 6.0% 2.9 29.4 30.0 20.8
2023 87.3 5.0% 2.8 31.5 32.2 21.4
2024 91.7 5.0% 2.8 33.7 34.4 22.0
2025 96.3 5.0% 2.7 36.1 36.8 22.7
2026 101.1 5.0% 2.6 38.7 39.4 23.4
2027 106.1 5.0% 2.6 41.4 42.1 24.1
2028 111.4 5.0% 2.5 44.4 45.1 24.8
2029 117.0 5.0% 2.5 47.5 48.2 25.5
2030 122.8 5.0% 2.4 50.9 51.6 26.3 Close to doub
le USA
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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