[tt] Next Big Future - 4 new articles

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> on Thu Jun 26 08:45:32 UTC 2008

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"[2]Next Big Future" - 4 new articles

    1. [3]Amory Lovins distorts nuclear energy and promotes air pollution
    2. [4]Approximate visible light cloak simulated and practical device
       within reach
    3. [5]Space elevator games and Lunar lander contest 2008 preview
    4. [6]Fuzzwich and Techshop at Demo party
    5. [7]More Recent Articles
    6. [8]Search Next Big Future

[9]Amory Lovins distorts nuclear energy and promotes air pollution

   Amory Lovins wrote the [10]nuclear illusion which looks at the data
   from 2000 forward or 1990 forward but he claims a decades long (plural
   so at least two decades and Lovins has been claiming nuclear collapse
   since the 1970s) collapse of nuclear energy.
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   Since 1980, nuclear power TWH has increased by over 400%. So Amory
   Lovins is wrong about nuclear energy being a collapsing industry.
   [neprod.gif]
   The charts that Lovins uses are only looking at 2000 forward or look
   at "new additions" when the bulk of nuclear power generation increases
   was from operating improvement and uprates to existing reactors.
   The "micropower" is mostly diesel, biomass and natural gas of small
   and big sizes. Natural gas has 4 deaths per TWH ([17]Externe source).
   So 2500 Twh (to displace nuclear power) would be 10,000 deaths per
   year. The diesel (oil) portion is 35 deaths per TWH. The biomass about
   10 deaths per TWH (35,000 deaths per year if diesel was the main
   source). The blended rate of deaths per TWH from micropower is over 12
   deaths per TWH. Far higher than the 0.65 deaths per TWH calculated by
   Externe for nuclear power. Even if the micropower deaths per TWH was
   cut in half for lower distribution losses the number is still far
   higher. Diesel and natural gas are not renewable. Over 75% of the
   power that Lovins is talking about is diesel, natural gas and biomass.
   [18]Deaths per TWH for all energy sources
   Natural gas is not renewable. So is Lovins advocating an increase of
   more than double the US military deaths of the 5+ years of the Iraq
   war every year from more natural gas air pollution and other causes ?
   All energy build [19]costs went up with the increase in commodity
   prices (steel, concrete, oil)
   There are wind turbine shortages and backorders for several years for
   the large efficient turbines.
   Nuclear operating costs and efficiency are on continuing to the
   improvements that they have made for decades.
   Laser uranium enrichment [20]3-10 times cheaper and more efficient.
   Existing nuclear power plants are getting 20 year extensions and power
   uprates.
   MIT/Westinghouse commercializing new [21]50% power uprates for annular
   fuel.
   FURTHER READING
   [22]Further analysis of deaths per TWH
   [23]Nuclear power build in China and the rest of the world
   [24]Feed in tariffs subsidies for renewables
   [25]Energy costs with externalities
   [26]Staffing an expanding nuclear industry
   [27]constructing a lot of nuclear power is not supply constrained
   [28]Nuclear forging bottleneck is being addressed
   [29]Idaho national lab plan to extend nuclear plants to 80 years of
   operation and increase build in the USA to over 10 reactors per year
   [30]New smaller and mass produced reactors will address the larger
   finance issues
   [31]Mass producable uranium hydride reactors
   [32]The Fuji molten salt reactor
   THE DEBATES ON NUCLEAR ILLUSION
   [33]David Bradish critique part 1 vs Nuclear illusion
   [34]David Bradish critique part 2 vs Nuclear illusion
   [35]David Bradish critique part 3 vs Nuclear illusion
   [36]David Bradish critique part 4 vs Nuclear illusion
   [37]Gristmill rebuttal part one
   [38]Gristmill/Lovins rebuttal part 2
   [39]Amory Lovins supports "clean coal"
   [40]Amory Lovins fossil fuel apologist

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[58]Approximate visible light cloak simulated and practical device within
reach

   Silicon [59]photonic crystal has holes of the right sizes and
   waveguides
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   [66]In computer simulations, the researchers have demonstrated an
   approximate cloaking effect created by concentric rings of silicon
   photonic crystals. The mathematical proof brings scientists a step
   closer to a practical solution for optical cloaking.
   [67]"This is much more than a theoretical exercise," said Harley
   Johnson, a Cannon Faculty Scholar and professor of mechanical science
   and engineering at Illinois. "An optical cloaking device is almost
   within reach."

     Axisymmetric photonic crystal structures may be designed to possess
     interesting optical properties, particularly when the photonic band
     structure of the material is highly anisotropic. We use finite
     element calculations to demonstrate an approximate electromagnetic
     cloaking effect imparted by a structure consisting of concentric
     silicon photonic crystal layers. The results show that it is
     possible to bend light around an object by simply using anisotropy.
     The calculations show that the cloaking mechanism is fundamentally
     different from Pendry's approach. This design may work as a
     practical solution for optical cloaking.

   D. Xiao and H. T. Johnson, "Approximate cloaking effect in an
   axisymmetric silicon photonic crystal structure," [68]Optics Letters,
   33, [69]860-862 (2008).

     In October 2006, an invisibility cloak operating in the microwave
     region of the electromagnetic spectrum was reported by researchers
     at Duke University, Imperial College in London, and Sensor Metrix
     in San Diego. In their experimental demonstration, microwave
     cloaking was achieved through a thin coating containing an array of
     tiny metallic structures called ring resonators.
     To perform the same feat at much smaller wavelengths in the visible
     portion of the spectrum, however, would require ring resonators
     smaller than can be made with current technology, Johnson said. In
     addition, because metallic particles would absorb some of the
     incident light, the cloaking effect would be incomplete. Faintly
     outlined in the shape of the container, some of the background
     objects would appear dimmer than the rest.
     To avoid these problems, postdoctoral research associate Dong Xiao
     came up with the idea of using a coating of concentric rings of
     silicon photonic crystals. The width and spacing of the rings can
     be tailored for specific wavelengths of light.
     "When light of the correct wavelength strikes the coating, the
     light bends around the container and continues on its way, like
     water flowing around a rock," Xiao said. "An observer sees what is
     behind the container, as though it isn't there. Both the container
     and its contents are invisible."
     Currently simulated in two dimensions, the cloaking concept could
     be extended to three dimensions, Xiao said, by replacing the
     concentric rings with spherical shells of silicon, separated by air
     or some other dielectric.
     The researchers' optical cloaking technique is not perfect,
     however. "The wave fronts are slightly perturbed as they pass
     around the container," said Johnson, who also is affiliated with
     the university's Beckman Institute and the Frederick Seitz
     Materials Research Laboratory. "Because the wave fronts don't match
     exactly, we refer to the technique as 'approximate' cloaking."

   FURTHER READING
   [70]Invisibility to sound for acoustic shields (hide nuclear deterrent
   submarines from sonar detection) and shaping sound and other waves
   (like earthquakes) is also coming soon
   [71]Researchers at the University of Illinois are the first to achieve
   optical waveguiding of near-infrared light through features embedded
   in self-assembled, three-dimensional photonic crystals. Applications
   for the optically active crystals include low-loss waveguides,
   low-threshold lasers and on-chip optical circuitry.
   [72]Harley Johnson site
   [73]Photonic crystal tutorial
   [74]Silicon photonic crystal
   Scanning electron micrograph of a porous silicon photonic crystal

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   device within reach'

[92]Space elevator games and Lunar lander contest 2008 preview

   [93]The Space elevator power beaming (climber) competition is on Sept
   27, 2008
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   Vertical Distance: 1 kilometer (ten times the 2007 distance)
   Speed for prizes: 2 m/s for $900,000 and 5 m/s for $2 million
   [100]11 teams have entered the 2008 power beaming / climbing contest
   [101]The University of Saskatchewan space design team
   [102]The University of Saskatchwan team almost won in 2007
   [103]University of Alberta racing team
   [104]Queen's space elevator team
   [105]McGill Space elevator team
   [106]Kansas City Space Pirates
   [107]MClimber from Michigan
   [108]NSS Space elevator team
   [109]Laser Motive
   [110]TXL group
   [111]Team Nippon
   [112]Earth track controllers
   Proving Space Elevator components by 2010
   The Space Elevator requires two major achievements: a tether which is
   at least 30 GPa-cc/g strong (see below), and a long-range power
   beaming system in the Mega-Watt range.
   [113]The Spaceward foundation plan to demonstrate by the year 2010, a
   10 GPa-cc/g CNT tether, and a multi-kWatt km-scale power beaming
   demonstration.

     With these benchmarks demonstrated, the Spaceward Foundation plans
     to pursue a 5-year development phase (phase 1) of full-performance
     components, followed by a 5-year system development effort (phase
     2). This puts the beginning of construction (phase 3) around the
     year 2020.

   Tether strength to weight ratio seems to be on track to reach the
   necessary levels by 2013.
   In 2007, 9 GPa g/cc strenth material for millimeter lengths
   "High-Performance Carbon Nanotube Fiber", Krzysztof Koziolet al,
   Science Magazine, 2007 - Measurement of the strongest of a sample of
   mm-long pure aggregated carbon nanotube fibers.
   In 2008, 40 GPa g/cc
   from Sparse (Carbon nanotubes) CNT Composite
   [114]"The extraordinary reinforcing efficiency of single-walled carbon
   nanotubes in oriented poly(vinyl alcohol) tapes", Wang et al. IOP
   Nanotechnology vol. 18 -
   inferred strength of SWNTs from a 1% CNT reinforced plastic tape.

     Abstract. This paper reports on oriented poly(vinyl
     alcohol)/single-walled carbon nanotube (PVA/SWNT) tapes that were
     prepared by a mild processing route, involving the use of dimethyl
     sulfoxide (DMSO) as a solvent. Composite films with homogeneously
     dispersed SWNTs were cast from solution and drawn into oriented
     tapes using solid-state drawing. The obtained tapes showed the
     extraordinary reinforcing effects of the SWNTs, as the addition of
     1.0 wt% SWNTs tripled the tensile strength of the PVA tapes.
     Micromechanical analysis showed that the nanotube contribution to
     the composite strength was as high as 88 GPa, which is very high
     when compared to other data reported in the literature, and for the
     first time begins to exploit the theoretical strength of nanotubes.

   Goal 2010, 35 GPa g/cc for 1000 km x mm
   Minimal value for Space Elevator ribbon, Taper Ratio=6.3 with 33%
   safety factor.
   Comparative Ribbon Mass = 4.6 - May require more efficient power
   system.
   Goal 2011, 50 GPa g/cc for 1000 km x mm
   Basic value for Space Elevator ribbon, Taper Ratio=3.5 with 33% safety
   factor.
   Comparative Ribbon Mass = 2.0
   Goal 2012, 80 GPa g/cc for 1000 km x mm
   Desirable value for Space Elevator ribbon, Taper Ratio=2.5 with 50%
   safety factor.
   Comparative Ribbon Mass = 1.0
   [115]The 2008 work by Z Wang is getting a follow up navy study for
   increased percentages of carbon nanotubes in plastic

     This STTR requests proposals that develop a clear scientific
     understanding of the main obstacles to ultrahigh CNT loading in
     nanocomposites and that proposes new methods or approaches to
     increasing the loading of well dispersed CNTs in structural resins
     beyond 10% weight fraction.

   [116]The Lunar Lander contest is October 24-25, 2008
   There was almost a winner in 2007 and 2006. There should be a winner
   in 2008.
   FURTHER READING
   [117]Space Elevator conference Friday, July 18 thru Sunday, July 20 in
   Redmond Washington
   [118]2nd European climber workshop - Luxembourg - October 18 thru
   October 19. 2008
   [119]1st Japanese space elevator conference Nov 2008
   [120]Wikipedia on the space elevator

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[138]Fuzzwich and Techshop at Demo party

   [139]Went to a Demo networking event last week
   In 1991, Stewart Alsop changed the technology conference circuit by
   instituting a new event with new rules: DEMO would be about the
   products; would require timed, live demonstrations; and would not
   allow PowerPoint presentations. These rules still stand. Startups
   communicate the power and value of emerging technologies on stage in a
   short 360 second.
   Two of companies at that event:
   [140]Fuzzwich.com who make animation simpler. An example that I
   created in a few mintues is below.
   [EMBED]
   TECHSHOP
   [141]Techshop is an open access public workshop with rapid prototyping
   machines and many other tools Techshop membership costs
   $100-125/month. They have classes where you can learn how to use the
   equipment to start making inventions.
   [142]TechShop Menlo Park / HQ is located at 120 Independence Dr, Menlo
   Park, California, just to the east of 101 near Marsh Road on the San
   Francisco peninsula.
   FURTHER READING
   [143]Every demo 2007 startup ranked by thedeal.com

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----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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