[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Mon Jun 23 09:40:38 UTC 2008
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Date: Sat, 21 Jun 2008 02:22:58 -0400
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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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Here are the latest updates for eugen at leitl.org
"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]Updated China economic projection
2. [4]Phoenix Mars Lander Finds Water Ice
3. [5]Carnival of Space Week 59
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]Updated China economic projection
China's GDP in 2007 was 24.66 trillion yuan ($3.38 trillion) and per
capita GDP was $2,556, official figures suggest.
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UPDATE of this May article:
China's [15]currency is now 6.88 yuan to 1 USD. China's GDP is now
$3.78 trillion.
[16]Hong Kong's GDP is $409 billion in 2008
Including Hong Kong and Macau China has $4.2 trillion GDP.
[17]The Economist magazine noted that China's national economic
figures have been inaccurate but that the provincial numbers which
show 10% higher growth have historically been shown to be more
correct.
Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, calculates that
in 2007 the combined output of the provinces was 10% more than that
reported by Beijing. Their average growth rate of 13.1% was also
still 1.2 percentage points higher than the revised national growth
rate, although the gap has narrowed from almost three points in
2005.
Updated projection for currency, US recession and China but not with
the 10% higher provincial growth numbers and the new 2007 GDP number.
If growth did average 1.2% faster and US growth was weaker then China
could pass the USA on an exchange rated basis in 2014. My updated
likely estimate is for 2015-2018 for China's economy to pass the USA
economy. The most likely years are 2016-2017. The latest exchange rate
is 6.94 [6.88 June 20, 2008] yuan to 1 USD. Key factors are the pace
of change in the exchange rate, the degree to which China can maintain
high growth and how fast the US economy grows. As previously noted at
nextbigfuture: China should maintain high growth until 2020 because of
the migration of 1-2% of the population each year from rural areas to
urban areas. Those people over a few years provide 4 times as much gdp
per capita. This provides a boost of 3-6% to the annual growth rate.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD China GDP China+HK/Ma US GDP
2007 24.66 11.9% 7.3 3.38 3.7 13.8
Jun08 26.0 6.88 3.78 4.2
Oct08 26.7 6.65 4.0 4.45
2008 27.3 10.2% 6.35 4.3 4.8 14.0 Pass Germany
2009 30.1 9.8% 5.62 5.4 5.9 14.2 Pass Japan
2010 33.7 9.5% 5.11 6.6 7.1 14.6
2011 37.0 9.5% 4.64 8.0 8.5 15.0
2012 40.6 9.5% 4.26 9.5 10.0 15.4
2013 44.2 9.0% 3.91 11.3 11.8 15.9
2014 48.2 9.0% 3.72 13.0 13.5 16.4
2015 52.0 8.0% 3.54 14.7 15.2 16.9
2016 56.2 8.0% 3.53 16.7 17.2 17.4 Passing USA
2017 60.4 7.5% 3.38 18.8 19.4 17.9 Past USA
2018 64.2 7.0% 3.20 20.9 21.5 18.4
2019 69.2 7.0% 3.09 23.0 23.6 19.0
2020 74.0 7.0% 3.0 25.2 25.8 19.6
2021 78.4 6.0% 2.9 27.2 27.8 20.2
2022 83.1 6.0% 2.9 29.4 30.0 20.8
2023 87.3 5.0% 2.8 31.5 32.2 21.4
2024 91.7 5.0% 2.8 33.7 34.4 22.0
2025 96.3 5.0% 2.7 36.1 36.8 22.7
2026 101.1 5.0% 2.6 38.7 39.4 23.4
2027 106.1 5.0% 2.6 41.4 42.1 24.1
2028 111.4 5.0% 2.5 44.4 45.1 24.8
2029 117.0 5.0% 2.5 47.5 48.2 25.5
2030 122.8 5.0% 2.4 50.9 51.6 26.3 Close to doub
le USA
FURTHER READING
[18]China's economy now third largest passing Germany.
Part of the reason for China's GDP growth, lower cost of
infrastructure
[19]China is planning to complete rebuilding from the recent
earthquake within 3 years. This compares to longer timeframes for US
rebuilding after the San Francisco earthquake (still working on the
Bay bridge) and from Katrina. [20]The replacement of the eastern span
of the Bay Bridge appears like it will cost $6.3 billion and be
completed in 2013. 24 years after the 1989 quake.
The rebuilding of damage from China's quake will cost a lot less than
repairs in the USA. $10 billion has been set aside for repairs in
China.
[21]The new Olympic stadium (the bird nest) only cost $500 million and
was completed in 52 months
[22]China has already started demolition of unsafe structures and
towns.
[23]Beijing's new airport (the world's largest and most advanced
airport building)is larger than all five London terminals and cost an
estimated $3.75 billion to construct, occupies 14 million square feet
and was finished in four years. London Heathrow's Terminal 5 took
nearly 20 years to build and cost at least twice as much as the one in
the Chinese capital.
[24]Chinese and Russian officials signed a $1 billion deal Friday to
have Moscow build a nuclear fuel enrichment plant in China and supply
uranium.
The deal calls for Russia to build a $500 million nuclear fuel
enrichment plant and supply semi-enriched uranium worth at least $500
million. Earlier this year, a Russian company completed work on two
1,000-megawatt light-water reactors for China's Tianwan nuclear power
plant south of Shanghai. China plans to build 40 plants by 2020,
tripling the nuclear share of its power generation to 6 percent.
Westinghouse secured a $5.3 billion order from China National Nuclear
in July to provide four AP1000 nuclear power reactors in Haiyang,
Shandong Province and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, both in eastern
China. Four AP1000 in the USA for Florida Power and Light are
contracted in 2008 for $13.7 billion, $2927/kw.
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[42]Phoenix Mars Lander Finds Water Ice
[43]Dice-size crumbs of bright material have vanished from inside a
trench where they were photographed by NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander four
days ago, convincing scientists that the material was frozen water
that vaporized after digging exposed it.
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[50]A link to a NASA video of the ice find
[51]Many images at the Phoenix NASA blog
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[69]Carnival of Space Week 59
[70]The 59th carnival of space is up at Green Gabbro on the Science
blogs
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[77]Centauri Dreams talks about the improved technology for the burst
of new exoplanet discoveries.
[78]Nasa is blogging about the GLAST (Gamma-ray Large Area Space
Telescope) mission.
[79]25 reasons to go the moon are discussed
Check out the Carnival for much more.
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76. http://www.feedblitz.com/adfaq.asp
77. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=1926
78. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://blogs.nasa.gov/cm/blog/GLAST/
79. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://www.outofthecradle.net/archives/2008/06/25-good-reasons-to-go-to-the-moon-2/
80. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~a/blogspot/advancednano?a=s1NFhv
81. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=uPsPiI
82. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=3LdxcI
83. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=5tXLTI
84. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=mh3pli
85. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=K1Kaei
86. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=iUSdGi
87. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=vQBlzI
88. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=orHgXi
89. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=XaoUUI
90. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=q5vIri
91. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=7828jI
92. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Fwd2FriendEdit=64651;297701;http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/315952841/carnival-of-space-week-59.html;Carnival%20of%20Space%20Week%2059;189995
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94. http://www.feedblitz.com/related.asp?http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/315952841/carnival-of-space-week-59.html
95. http://www.talkr.com/app/text_to_audio.app?feed_url=http%3a%2f%2ffeeds.feedburner.com%2fblogspot%2fadvancednano&permalink=http%3a%2f%2ffeeds.feedburner.com%2f~r%2fblogspot%2fadvancednano%2f~3%2f315952841%2fcarnival-of-space-week-59.html&src=5
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98. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/315441227/miniture-scanning-electron-microscopes.html
99. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/314648358/what-if-blacklight-power-works-in-2009.html
100. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/314630652/acoustic-shield-design-for-sonar.html
101. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/314198719/carbon-nanotube-production.html
102. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=78a7ac66-3f5a-11dd-b1cf-003005ce&group=64651
103. http://www.feedblitz.com/adfaq.asp
104. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8MTg5OTk1_
105. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Subscriptions=64651
106. http://www.feedblitz.com/f
107. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3x8ZXVnZW5AbGVpdGwub3JnfDE4OTk5NQ==_
108. http://www.feedblitz.com/
109. http://www.feedblitz.com/
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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