[tt] New Scientist: Internet to run out of addresses 'within 3 years'

[Torsten Nahm]

Eugen Leitl wrote:
>> If however, you feel Julian Simon, Bjørn Lomborg and all those 
>> transhumanists are just hopeless optimists, here is a doomsday generator 
>> for your personal pleasure:
>>
>> #! /bin/bash
>> for X in oil water food "ip addresses"; do
> 
> Do you think the peak oil assumption is untrue? I've seen a few
> quite suggestive graphs lately.

Actually, the point made by Julian Simon is more subtle. The argument is
that doomsters live in a static world. They do not leave room for human
flexibility and believe that if IPv4 adresses or oil run out, then we
will hit a brick wall. What has happened instead, time after time, is
the following:
A resource starts to become sparse. This raises the incentive to develop
alternatives (NAT, renewable energies, etc.). Thus, while the resource
in question does run out, this does not lead to shortage in any
meaningful way, because alternatives will be found, and doomsday
postponed yet again (I agree that sometimes the alternatives will be
more of a hassle, but certainly not doom!). Simon puts this idea in a
very catchy way: For him, there is only one resource which matters in
the end, human ingenuity. And he is confindent that this "ultimate
resource" (the title of his book) will never run out.

Torsten