[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Mon Jun 9 20:51:25 UTC 2008
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Date: Tue, 03 Jun 2008 02:22:22 -0400
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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]You are probably in a Singularity when
2. [4]Better Robots and AI are not the only ways your job could
disappear in the future
3. [5]Permanent nanoscale bubbles created
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]You are probably in a Singularity when
[9]Vernor Vinge wrote about "Signs of the Singularity" However, some
of the signs will be more obvious when they are actually occuring.
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[16]Robin Hanson talks about the economics of the Singularity where
economic growth rates accelerate 60-250 times. This site has talked
about [17]Singularity Lite where the 2-3 times increase in economic
growth rate from the early (1730) to late (1900s) part of the
industrial revolution is repeated.
If the economic impacts of a Singularity are correct then a clear sign
of a Singularity would be if world economic growth rates goes to
current China levels of growth or higher. The difference between
Singularity lite and a full blown Singularity would be if the majority
of the world economy is more than doubling every year.
If 1996-2000 rates of change for the Internet industry speed hits and
radically transforms education and healthcare, then you are probably
in a Singularity.
If you have a device that guides you through the first day of your new
job like Morpheus telling Neo which turns to make in the first Matrix
movie then you are probably in a world undergoing a technological
Singularity. If the device is providing those instructions via a
direct brain-machine interface then you are definitely in a
technological Singularity.
[18]Note: Emotiv already is selling inexpensive brain computer
interfaces for use with video games.
Emotiv graphic. The device on the woman's head is a real brain
computer interface. The projected image is not an actual current
interaction.
If over 90% of the businesses and industries this year did not exist
last year then you are probably in a technological Singularity.
Vernor Vinge indicated :
The consequences of creating human-level artificial intelligence
would be profound, but it would still be explainable to present-day
humans like you and me. But what happens a year or two after that?
The best answer to the question, "Will computers ever be as smart
as humans?" is probably "Yes, but only briefly."
If the world's energy and transportation infrastructure is being
replaced multiple times per year with radically improved technology
then you are deep into a technological Singularity or experiencing a
hard takeoff.
If every quarter or week, you have to change out your mind machine
interface device for one that is over ten times faster in order to
"stay competitive" you are in a technological Singularity.
Add your less subtle signs of a Singularity in the comments.
FURTHER READING
[19]Contact lens displays
[2200015869_37d5990e6c.jpg?v=0]
Displays in glasses exist now.
[20]Cheap brain wave sensors
[newtoysreadb.jpg]
[21]Somewhat related: A robot performed brain surgery for the first
time.
[22]Microsoft captcha's broken. Captcha's are the letter graphics that
are designed to be human but not machine readable. Advancing machine
progress can be measured by the frequency with which the "test for
humanness" must be changed.
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[40]Better Robots and AI are not the only ways your job could disappear in
the future
[41]When people talk about the Technological Singularity and advanced
robots and artificial (general) intelligence, it seems a large part of
the denial of that future is the idea that "a machine cannot do what I
do" or "a machine cannot replace my job".
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It does not necessarily take more "intelligence".
People have known about vending machines for decades.
But was it smarter computers and robots that enabled fully automated
convenience stores in the US and [48]Japan ?
The picture is not the japanese version but a Kroger automated
convenience store in the USA.
There are more than 5.5 million vending machines operating in
Japan--that's one for every 20 people--and last year they raked in a
total of $56 billion in sales, according to the Japan Vending Machine
Manufacturers Association (JVMA). You deposit your coins and make your
choice: dried squid or hair tonic, batteries or green tea, boxers or
beer. Sanyo's Auto Shop Vendor isn't just bigger than the
Coke-and-coffee machines of the past; advanced mechanical engineering
allows it to handle what was until recently an unthinkable variety of
necessities and impulse purchases. "This is four vending machines in
one," exults Sanyo deputy general manager Misao Awane. "It holds 200
different products, at three different temperatures."
The question is not can a machine do exactly what I do the way I do it
?
The question: Is there a successful business model where what you do
is no longer necessary ? The good news is that people will be freed up
to be involved in new businesses that grow the economy.
There have been more mundane job displacement:
[49]There is self checkout at Walmart, Home Depot and other stores
[50]Self service gas stations
[51]Ecommerce where shopping and business transactions are mostly
removed from bricks and mortar
Wikipedia killing encyclopedia companies.
Collaboration systems eliminating repeating the same research work
many times over.
Open source software eliminating jobs where the same work is repeated
at many companies.
[52]Automated teller machines or websites like [53]Paypal can reduce
the people involved in financial businesses. So can new investment
products like [54]Exchange Traded Funds
[55]Going down the list of jobs and looking at how many people have
different jobs which are the jobs that are safe from displacement ?
Even if a class of jobs is not completely eliminated could demand be
severely reduced ?
23.3 million jobs in the USA for office administration and support.
(New business systems that require fewer people. Web 2.0 companies
only need a handful of people or one person to do what took hundreds
only a few years ago).
14.3 million jobs in the USA for sales and related work. (Automation
and new sales processes)
11.3 million jobs in food preparation and serving. (Improved frozen
meals)
10.1 million jobs in production. (Automation and process
re-engineering)
9.6 million jobs in transportation and material moving. (more local
production : high rise farming, rapid prototyping and manufacturing
systems)
8.3 million jobs in education, training and library. (online learning,
MIT recordings of the best professors.)
6.9 million healthcare practitioners and technical. (Biomarker
tracking with cheap devices to catch and treat diseases early or in
the developing stages. Keep people healthier and avoiding the need for
more costly and people intensive intervention).
6.7 million jobs in construction and extraction (pre-fab buildings and
panels).
6.0 million Management. Re-engineering to flatten organizations and
take out layers of management. Web 2.0'ing a business. Reinvent it
where a lot fewer people are needed.
5.4 million Installation, Maintenance, and Repair. Redesign things
where the quality is better and it does not break or does not need
service or is simple to install.
etc...
It is good to [56]increase productivity because it is the process by
which an economy becomes more wealthy.
FURTHER READING
[57]Smart stores: re-inventing stores around RFID
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[75]Permanent nanoscale bubbles created
[76]Engineers at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
(SEAS) have whipped up, for the first time, permanent nanoscale
bubbles---bubbles that endure for more than a year---from batches of
foam made from a mixture of glucose syrup, sucrose stearate, and
water. Future applications of these microbubbles could significantly
extend the lifetimes of common gas-liquid products that experience
rapid disintegration, such as aerated personal-care products and
contrast agents for ultrasound imaging
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Stone, Vicky Joseph Professor of Engineering and Applied
Mathematics and associate dean for applied physical sciences and
engineering, was in the audience when Bee projected an image of a
micrometer-size bubble with a distinctive polygonal geometry. The
bubble surface appeared to be faceted with regular pentagonal,
hexagonal, and heptagonal domains that intersected to form a soccer
ball-like structure. None of the faces spanned more than 50
nanometers.
"Small bubbles on that scale never last because of surface
tension---they instantly disappear. What Rodney showed on that
screen was extraordinary," said Stone. "It was impossible; we all
thought it was impossible."
Smaller bubbles have a greater surface tension and a higher gas
pressure than larger ones. As a result, larger bubbles usually grow
at the expense of smaller ones, which have very short lifetimes.
The experimental study, conducted by SEAS graduate student Emilie
Dressaire in collaboration with Unilever colleagues, revealed that
when the bubbles were covered with the chosen surfactant mixture,
the surfactant molecules crystallized to form nearly impermeable
shells over the bubble surfaces.
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More Recent Articles
* [100]IEEE Spectrum : The Singularity a Special Report
* [101]Focus Fusion and X-scan and the Company behind them
* [102]New Iron based superconductors might resist magnetic fields
over 100 Tesla
* [103]Focus Fusion Follow Up
* [104]Carnival of Space Week 56
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102. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/301558874/new-iron-based-superconductors-might.html
103. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/301266262/focus-fusion-follow-up.html
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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