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Some scientists think climate change needs a more radical approach. As well
as trying to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, they have plans to re-engineer
the Earth

THERE is a branch of science fiction that looks at the Earth’s neighbours,
Mars and Venus, and asks how they might be made habitable. The answer is
planetary engineering. The Venusian atmosphere is too thick. It creates a
large greenhouse effect and cooks a planet that is, in any case, closer to
the sun than the Earth is to even higher temperatures than it would otherwise
experience. Mars suffers from the opposite fault. A planet more distant from
the sun than Earth is also has an atmosphere too thin to trap what little of
the sun’s heat is available. So, fiddle with the atmospheres of these
neighbours and you open new frontiers for human settlement and far-fetched
story lines.

It is an intriguing idea. It may even come to pass, though probably not in
the lifetime of anyone now reading such stories. But what is more
worrying—and more real—is the idea that such planetary engineering may be
needed to make the Earth itself habitable by humanity, and that it may be
needed in the near future. Reality has a way of trumping art, and
human-induced climate change is very real indeed. So real that some people
are asking whether science fiction should now be converted into science fact.

Tinkering with the atmosphere or the oceans on the scale required to do this
would be highly risky and extraordinarily complex. But the alternative,
getting the world’s population to give up fossil fuels, is proving
exceedingly hard. Geo-engineering, as it has come to be known, may be a way
of buying time for the transition to a low-carbon economy to take place in an
orderly manner.

In the past, geo-engineering was taboo because many felt that the very
possibility of fiddling with the climate would create an excuse to avoid the
hard choices a low-carbon economy would impose. However, the feeling is now
growing that if politicians came to scientists for advice on the matter, it
would be a good idea for them to have some to offer. To that end, the Royal
Society, Britain’s oldest scientific academy, has published a series of
papers in its Philosophical Transactions outlining some of the options, and
suggesting a few experiments to test whether they would work.

Transactional analysis

Broadly, these ideas fall into two categories. One is to remove excess carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere. The other is to compensate for the
climate-warming greenhouse effect this carbon dioxide and other gases cause,
by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the ground.

The most plausible way to remove carbon dioxide is to increase the amount of
photosynthesis going on. Photosynthesis creates plant matter out of carbon
dioxide and water. But rotting plant matter returns carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere. So, if the gas is to be removed permanently, that rotting has to
be avoided.

One widely discussed idea, which the Royal Society’s correspondents
re-examine, is to fertilise the oceans with iron. The growth of plankton in
the sea is always limited by something. It may be light, or a familiar
nutrient such as nitrate or phosphate. In some places, though, iron is the
limiting nutrient. Adding iron to such places should cause a bloom of
planktonic algae, thus sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Several preliminary experiments have shown that plankton do, indeed, bloom
when iron is added. What is not clear is what happens to the carbon. For the
idea to work, some of it would have to sink to the ocean floor and stay
there.

One reason to think this might happen is that during recent ice ages the
cold, dry conditions caused a lot of iron-rich dust to blow around.
Supporters of the iron-fertilisation theory believe this dust produced blooms
of oceanic algae that then sank to the seabed, taking large amounts of carbon
with them, which helped to reduce temperatures still further.

Victor Smetacek, of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine
Research in Germany, and Wajih Naqvi, of India’s National Institute of
Oceanography, therefore propose conducting experiments that look not only at
how much carbon dioxide is sucked up, but also at what happens to it. In
particular, they are interested in the fate of diatoms. These are
single-celled algae which seem to absorb almost all of the extra carbon
dioxide captured when the ocean is fertilised with iron. The crucial question
is what happens to these diatoms when they die. If enough of them sink to the
ocean floor and stay buried there, the idea should work. If they do not, it
won’t. By reviewing studies of the ooze at the bottom of the sea (which is
often made of the shells of diatoms) Dr Smetacek and Dr Naqvi reckon the best
rate of burial is to be found in the south-west Atlantic, and they propose to
carry out an experiment there next year.

The advantage of fertilising the oceans is that it could be done with
existing technology. The disadvantage is the unknown knock-on effects.
Planktonic algae are at the bottom of the food chain. If more of them are
around, the rest of that chain will be affected. This could be a good thing,
of course. More algae might mean more krill, and that might mean more whales
and other large sea animals. On the other hand, shallow-water blooms caused
by nitrate and phosphate pollution often swamp the local environment.

A second idea for scrubbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,
alluded to in the Transactions but not much discussed, is to plant more
trees. In principle, any old trees would do—although they die and rot, more
forest cover would lock up more carbon dioxide. However, genetically modified
trees might grow faster. Such trees are being developed to help the lumber,
pulp and biofuel industries. But fast-growing forests could also be planted
in order to capture carbon dioxide quickly.

Another possibility that the Royal Society’s writers consider is recycling
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into fuel, by reacting it with hydrogen.
Of course, that would require a supply of hydrogen, and producing hydrogen
takes energy—which would have to be generated in a way that produces no
carbon dioxide.

Perhaps the most intriguing idea—which was published last year, though not
discussed by the Royal Society—is to eject carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
at the Earth’s poles, using the planet’s magnetic field. This may sound
absurd, but oxygen already leaks out this way (the phenomenon is the subject
of a paper just published by Hans Nilsson of Swedish Institute of Space
Physics). Alfred Wong, a researcher at the University of California, Los
Angeles, proposes that a system involving powerful lasers and finely tuned
radio waves could encourage carbon dioxide to take the same route. His
calculations suggested that using lasers to ionise molecules of carbon
dioxide, and radio waves to get them to spin at the correct rate, would cause
those molecules to spiral away from Earth along the lines of magnetic force
until they were lost for ever in space.

Reflecting on the future

Space is likewise the destination in the other set of approaches. Reflecting
sunlight back into outer space (increasing the Earth’s albedo, as it is
known) would also cool the planet, and the Royal Society’s authors consider
two ways of doing so.

One, which has been widely touted in the past is, perversely, to increase the
amount of pollution in the atmosphere. Governments have spent the past
half-century trying to reduce the amount of sulphur compounds in the air.
These compounds are the main cause of acid rain. They also, however, have a
tendency to form tiny particles that reflect sunlight back into space. That
effect is most noticeable when a volcano erupts explosively, as Mount
Pinatubo did in 1991, or Tambora did in 1815. Those eruptions put sulphate
particles into the stratosphere, and because that is above the part of the
atmosphere where weather occurs, these particles tended to stay there rather
than being washed out by raon fuel were used in this way, and was 5% sulphur
(between ten and 100 times today’s levels), it would require 1m flights a
year to the middle of the stratosphere (between 15km and 25km up), assuming
an average flight was four hours. Those flights alone would use up half as
much fuel as civil aviation now consumes. However, you could achieve part of
the effect by making civil aviation use dirty, high-sulphur fuel. It would
not be a perfect solution. Civilian jets cruise at an altitude of 10km, the
bottom of the stratosphere, and any sulphate they released would thus fall to
earth faster. But it would be a lot cheaper than flying 1m special missions.

Besides polluting the stratosphere, there is another way of changing the
atmosphere to make it more reflective. This is to tinker with cloud cover.
One person working on this idea is Stephen Salter, a marine engineer at the
University of Edinburgh best known for seeking to replace fossil fuels with
Salter’s duck, a device for turning ocean waves into electricity. He has also
been working on the geo-engineering end of climate change.

Dr Salter and his colleague at Edinburgh, Graham Sortino, together with John
Latham, one of Dr Rasch’s colleagues at the National Centre for Atmospheric
Research, have been looking into how clouds might be made more reflective.
Their answer is to spray them with seawater. Particles of salt formed by the
evaporation of ocean spray act as nuclei around which the droplets of water
that form clouds can condense. Increasing the number of particles increases
the number of droplets. That does not change the total amount of cloud (which
is controlled by the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere). But having
more, smaller droplets does increase a cloud’s reflectivity.

A drop in the ocean

Dr Latham led a team of climate modellers who wondered whether, in principle,
this phenomenon might be used to increase the planet’s albedo enough to
compensate for projected global warming. Their answer was that it could, but
it would require 1.4 billionage this. Their answer is a fleet of specially
designed ships. These would be wind-powered—not by sails but by Flettner
rotors, which are giant, rotating cylinders that extract energy from the wind
using the Magnus effect. (This is the effect that causes cricket balls to
swing in the air, among other things.) The ships would drag turbines through
the sea to provide electricity that would both drive the cylinders and power
pumps that sprayed the atmosphere with seawater, suitably broken up into
droplets.

Such ships would weigh 300 tonnes. A fully operational system would require
1,500 of them. And it would have the advantage of an almost instant off
switch. Stop spraying, and things would revert to normal within a couple of
days.

Cui bono?

That reversibility is important. Many scientists are understandably nervous
about tinkering on a grand scale with the atmosphere and the oceans. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—a scientific body appointed by the
United Nations to assess the risks of a changing climate—has described
geo-engineering as “largely speculative and unproven, and with the risk of
unknown side-effects”.

Broadly, there are two types of fears. The first is of technological hubris.
History is littered with plans that went awry because too little was known
about complex natural systems. As with irrigating Soviet cotton fields from
the Aral Sea in Central Asia or introducing rabbits to Australia, modifying
the climate will have both physical and biological consequences. Some of
these will be unpredictable and some of them may be worse than the harm they
were intended to treat. Critics point out, for instance, that carbon dioxide
does not just warm the atmosphere. It also makes the oceans more acidic. That
is bad because many marine creatures rely on shells made of calcium carbonate
to protect themselves. As every schoolboy knows, if you drop calcium
carbonate (limestone, for example) into acid, it dissolves. The sea would not
become so acidic that shells would actually dissolve, but the extra acidity
would mean making them was harder work, which might upset the oceanic
ecosystem quite badly. For this reason, approaches to geo-engiue to pollute
the atmosphere as usual.

It would be a mistake to think of geo-engineering as a substitute for curbing
carbon-dioxide emissions—not merely because of the acidification of the
oceans, but also because if you ever stop fertilising the oceans or spraying
the atmosphere or whatever, the problem will rapidly return. Nevertheless,
Brian Launder of the University of Manchester, who edited the Royal Society
papers, argues that the sort of geo-engineering schemes they describe might
buy the world 20 to 30 years to adjust. That breathing space would be useful
if something really bad, such as the collapse into the sea of part of the
Greenland ice-shelf, was in imminent danger of happening, and the realisation
of the danger led to a political agreement that climate change had to be
stopped rapidly.

So what now? The answer is probably to carry out preliminary trials of the
sort proposed by Dr Smetacek and Dr Naqvi. Correctly done, they should help
to indicate what could work, what would not, and what the financial and
environmental costs might be.

Local schemes, particularly ocean fertilisation, need not be that expensive.
They would be well within the budget of a small country, a large company or
even a tycoon. Richard Branson, a British businessman, is already offering a
prize of $25m for a workable way of removing a billion tonnes of carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere every year. And at least one private firm has
come in for criticism for attempting to sell carbon credits based on ocean
fertilisation. And yet, the effects of geo-engineering would rarely be
restricted to a single country—that is, after all, the whole point.

For this reason, if geo-engineering is to be done properly, it must be
regulated properly. The world needs a way of deciding the size and scope of
any project, who takes responsibility for any mistakes, and whether and how
to compensate losers—of whom there will be many. Schemes designed to cool the
climate could harm countries such as Canada and Russia. Global warming may
make their northern wastes more habitable and allow them to exploit oil and
gas located under what is now an ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile a
country sord University, another of the authors, reckons that it may be
feasible to place sulphates in the stratosphere near the poles and thus cool
the Earth in a place where global warming manifests itself most strongly,
though that would scarcely please the Russians and the Canadians. Nor does it
answer the question of how to decide whose interests such tinkering should
serve.

Even its advocates think geo-engineering is not to be approached lightly.
Nor, though, is it something to be ignored completely. Global warming is such
a threat that all the options deserve to be explored. It would be a big
experiment, but it would at least be a planned one—unlike the equally big,
but unplanned experiment that is now being conducted by motor cars, power
stations, cement factories and logging companies all across the planet.