[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Jul 22 16:18:08 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]Responding to Al Gore's Clean Energy Challenge
2. [4]195K superconductor at dry ice temperatures
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]Responding to Al Gore's Clean Energy Challenge
[8]Al Gore has put forward an energy challenge, which has very few
details. The challenge is for the United States to get to zero carbon
electricity generation within 10 years. [9]Al Gore also spoke with
Katie Couric of CBS News about his challenge
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His primary policy recommendation related to this goal is to cut the
payroll tax and replace it with carbon taxes to motivate the change.
[16]Federal payroll tax $713 billion in 2003. 71% was Social security.
21% was Medicare
[17]The United States generates 6 billion tons of CO2 each year So a
CO2 tax would generate whatever dollars per ton times 6 billion. A
$60/ton of CO2 tax would generate $360 billion/year. A complete
replacement of all federal payroll tax would be about $120/ton of CO2.
Note: it is not clear if the carbon tax proposed would be against all
CO2 which would effect transportation and industry and not just
electric generation. Also, if the de-carbonization of electricity was
starting to be successful then payroll taxes would have to be
re-raised to replace any reduced carbon taxes because you still have
to pay for Social security and medicare.
First the choice of the goal
The goal of complete de-carbonizing of United States electrical
generation seems like an excessive focus on electrical generation.
This is separate from the carbon tax proposal which would make sense.
Looking at CO2 sources for the USA. From 2001 DOE sources.
It would seem that a more balanced overall approach which addressed
the other segments of transportation, industrial, residential and
commercial sources would make more economic sense. The Gore challenge
also mostly sidesteps the most pressing issue for Americans which is
the price of oil and foreign oil dependence. He also does not address
air pollution which this site feels is the most important issue. The
proposal would address air pollution as a byproduct of achieving the
first goal. Air pollution kills 60,000 americans per year and (indoor
and outdoor) air pollution kills 5 million people per year worldwide.
(World Health Organization statistics)
[2053359927_6de9adaec6.jpg?v=0]
Very little oil is used for electicity (313,000 barrels/day) and only
some is used for heating which could be displaced with electricity.
However, displacing oil with electricity for heating would be raising
the bar on the amount of clean electricity that is needed. However,
this site believes it is the better strategy.
This site is all for eliminating coal power for electricity as this
would also help reduce pollution from transportation to move over 1
billion tons of coal per year.
[1445104578_bc1a5571fc_o.jpg]
The overall sources of US energy which includes all uses
transportation, industrial, electricity.
Carbon tax effect
An EIA analysis of the McCain Lieberman climate change bill indicated
the effect of a growing cost per ton of carbon from $14-58/ton. The
$58 high end would be about half of a complete federal payroll tax
replacing carbon tax. Which would still increase natural gas and not
eliminate coal by 2030 based on the EIA projection of similar carbon
cost increases with a Cap and trade as opposed to carbon tax method.
So the de-carbonizing goal would not be achieved although the
situation would be improved.
[1252859644_da56cae74f_o.jpg]
It shows that with no allowance for letting international offsetting
of the climate rules, that the economics would drive by 2020 about a
33% reduction in coal usage but an increase in natural gas. There
would be substantially more nuclear power and renewable power but even
in 2030 there would not be complete elimination of coal and natural
gas usage would continue to grow.
So Gore would have to be pushing a far larger carbon tax to generate
his desired effect.
Energy Technology Plan
This site has proposed [18]an energy plan with a greater focus on
applying better energy technology. The plan is not solely focused on
CO2 emissions.
Short term
Efficiency and drilling for regular and enhanced recovery, policy that
discourages coal and fossil fuel and encourages nuclear and
renewables. Try to reduce fuel usage 2-4% per year and try to increase
oil from drilling and biofuels by 3-6% per year.
Accelerate the development and deployment of inflatable electric cars
and adapting cars like the $2500 Tata nano to be plug in electric
vehicles.
Encourage the adoption of electric bikes and scooters. China has 80
million and is building 21 million per year. Electric scooters can
reach highway speeds and folding e-bikes can be rolled onto public
transit.
Build the factory mass produceable meltdown proof high temperature
nuclear reactors. Accelerate the factory mass produceable Hyperion
power [19]Uranium hydride reactor. [currently targeting 2012
deployment]
[20]Build the Fuji Molten salt reactor which can use thorium and can
burn 99% of the thorium, uranium and plutonium which only leaves 30
year half life material.
Mid Term
Big nuclear buildup and thermoelectric and transmission efficiency
Triple nuclear power by 2020 by using new ([21]MIT annular nuclear
fuel can increase power by 50% for existing reactors) uprate
technology and advanced thermoelectrics and some new plants. (25% of
all energy from nuclear instead of 8.2% and 17% less fossil fuel.
First reduce coal first - 30,000 deaths from coal air pollution,
60,000 deaths from combined coal and fossil fuel air pollution in the
USA. Plus moving 1.2 billion tons of coal is 40% of freight rail
traffic and 10% of diesel fuel usage.) Can get up to six times more
nuclear by 2030. Displace all coal and a lot of oil.
Mid-Long Term
Very advanced nuclear fission and nuclear fusion and better renewables
(geothermal, wind [kitegen, superconducting wind turbines], solar
[concentrated solar in municipal or rural power configurations. My
favorite is CoolEarth's solar balloons], genetically modified
organisms for biofuel)
Also part of the near term steps, but which would not likely have
impact until the mid-term is to fully fund the best nuclear fusion
power generation possibilities. Create policies to accelerate research
and deployment.
Time to Small Cost to Achieve Large scale chance
Concept Description Scale net energy Net Energy after small success Fun
ded?
Plasma Focus 6 years $1M+ Sales X-scan 80% Y, $1
.9m
[22]Focus fusion website
[23]Focus fusion US patent application
[24]Working on a funded experiment with Chile 2006-2010
.
Bussard IEC Fusion 3-5 years $200 million 90% Y,
$2m
[25]My intro to Bussard fusion and update on prototype work
.
Tri-alpha Energy aka 8 years $75 million 60% Y,
$50m
Colliding Beam fusion aka
Field Reversed Configuration
[26]My review of the academic research before the funded stealth project
.
General Fusion aka 3-6 years $10-30 million 60% Y,
$2m
Magnetized target fusion
[27]Steam generated shock wave into spinning liquid metal
.
Multi-pole Ion beam
version of Bussard IEC 3-5 years $200 million 90% N
[28]FP generation MIX IEC fusion
.
Koloc Spherical Plasma 10 years $25 million 80% N
(self)
[29]Attempt to create stable ball lightning plasma balls
[30]In 2004, trying to generate 30-40cm plasma spheres
There should be a Darpa of energy created to fund high risk and high
return energy technology.
FURTHER
Gore spoke with Katie Couric and expanded upon his plan. In the
interview, he discusses the value or lack thereof of clean coal,
nuclear power, and natural gas. For nuclear, Al states that the
keeping the current nuclear is OK but that more nuclear power is too
expensive and that there are no small reactors. There are small
nuclear reactors that are being developed now. High Temperature
reactors are in the 200MW range. [31]China is starting production in
2009 and after the first success will step up to mass production.
[32]The United States and other countries have micro and small nuclear
reactors designs and pilot projects but have not stepped up to
production
[33]The Fuji Molten salt reactor is an excellent small reactor design
Mass production of small reactors allows for cost reductions similar
to those from scaling to large sizes. Plus one can place say eight 200
MW modules in one place and use one control center and generate the
same power as a 1.6 GW reactor. This is one of the Chinese plans.
China also plans to order 100 large [34]AP1000 reactors [1.25-1.7GW]
to have built or being built by 2020.
[35]In the comment section of a discussion at Newtalk.org the question
of is nuclear power needed to address climate change is addressed by
this site.
The question of is nuclear essential is based on some energy decisions
and policy going forward. It is only a question of whether more
nuclear will be added along with other power additions. Energy policy
does not change that fast. so this would only be a meaningful question
for projects starting or in early progress in 2010. It is also not
much of a meaningful question for China and several other countries
they are already committed to nuclear power for other reasons.
Other countries who will be building more power will use nuclear
The EIA forecast is 86 Quad BTU being added to the world
2010-2020.[reference case 2008]
Currently about 480 Quad BTU in use in the world.
The US uses 100 Quad BTU.
China is forecast to add 33.3 Quad BTU. 110GW of hydroelectric being
added by China 2010-2020. 50+GW of nuclear power is being added. So
about 6 Quad from hydro and 4+ quad from nuclear.
As noted, China is talking about 100 AP1000 (1.25 GW-1.7GW) instead of
40 built or being built by 2020. And the mass production of high
temperature reactors.
Russia adding 40GW of nuclear and India and other countries have firm
nuclear power plans. So it looks like 10+ quads based on current plans
from nuclear.
At the end of 2006 the US had 11.6GW of wind. This had generated 0.258
quads of energy in 2006. So almost one hundred times that amount to
displace coal usage. 1TW of wind power. Also, coal used for industrial
processes probably could not be displaced by wind. High temperature
nuclear reactors could supply the right thermal energy for those
industrial processes.
So how much will some OECD countries adjust their mix of 25% of the
world new power build ? Will there be an actual programs to shift the
already installed power mix in the OECD ?
No Opportunity cost for Nuclear Power
Greenpeace claims that there is an opportunity cost of nuclear power.
The choice to develop nuclear power is being made by business and
government interests in many countries. Some of those companies such
as GE also are major developers of wind power. If wind power would
make GE more money then GE would develop more wind power. Many of
utilities and companies involved develop a range of power generation
sources.
The nuclear industries track record is not as bad as projects cherry
picked for high prices and overruns would indicate. Many of recent
nuclear construction in China, Japan and south Korea have been on time
and budget and the budgets have been far lower than the Florida quote.
The Florida quote is also a budget that includes everything including
extra grid and not just the power plant. Wind power costs:
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Energy-boss-foretells-future-scarr
ed.4108662.jp 1.5 billion euro for 500MW. Which generates the
equivalent of 150MW of nuclear. So 15 billion euro to make equivalent
of a 1.5GW nuclear reactor.
Cost: The analysis made by the countries and companies investing in
nuclear indicates that they believe costs for nuclear are low enough.
With accelerating orders and build.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
Safety: Externe (swiss) analysis of [36]deaths per TWH for nuclear
compare very favorably to other power sources. Expecially good
compared to coal and oil which remain the dominant energy sources now
and in every forecast of actual energy development. So if wind and
solar cannot replace all of the coal and oil by X years then nuclear
should be developed along side to displace the far more deadly coal
and oil. Air pollution (indoor and outdoor) kills 5 million worldwide
(World Health Organization)
Security: No meaningful security breaches have been made. On
proliferation : are we going in time to stop Pakistan's Khan from
giving Iran and North Korea nuclear secrets?) In terms of terrorist
action, there are plenty of targets (hydro dams, water supplies, oil
refineries etc...) Security layers of nuclear plants is sufficient and
pro-actively eliminating or reducing terrorism at the source is the
more cost effective option (and more effective in general)
Waste: What about the billions of tons of air pollution particulates ?
What is the halflife of mercury or arsenic ? How about the twenty
thousand tons of uranium and thorium going into the air from burning
coal. Did a Greenpeace plan address that in 7 years ? Nuclear can be
kept in barrels or pools onsite. Better reactors like molten salt
reactors (Japan, Fuji molten salt)or accelerator driven reactors (EU)
or high temperature reactors that can burn the waste from current
reactors can be developed. Waste which is mostly unburned nuclear
fuel. Molten salt reactors were built in the sixties and seventies by
the USA so they are not fairy tale reactors. Warren Buffet did not
invest in Google or Microsoft either. Warren makes his money where he
is comfortable, if he does not invest it does not automatically mean
that investment is bad.
Scaling up clean energy faster
The Greenpeace and RMI claims that renewables like solar and wind can
be scaled up faster. This has been stated for decades and not been
proven to be true. Many billions per year have been spent in Germany,
Spain and other places to subsidize wind and solar but in spite of
many years of subsidized build up wind is at 194 TWh globally and 50
Twh in Germany. The Global wind energy council forecasts that if
Germany has optimal wind friendly policies then Germany could have 55
GW of wind by 2020 generating 150 Twh. Yes France in the 1980s built
its 60GW of nuclear power which generate 420 Twh. So the wind and
solar build up faster line is bunch of BS. Greenpeace quote RMI and
Lovins. Lovins has claimed that nuclear power is a dieing industry
since his Foreign Affair article in 1976. Since then global nuclear
power has increased by over 400% and is now over 2600 Twh. A lot of
the increase was from operational improvements and uprating existing
plants (increasing power from existing plants).
Further uprates are possible. MIT has piloted annular fuel which could
increase power generation by 50% for existing PWR and there is other
work for increasing BWR by 30+%. Westinghouse is working on
commercialization. There is still room for standard uprates as well.
Applying 50% power uprates would increase nuclear power from 20% now
to 30% power generation even if no new plants were built.
China is increasing its nuclear power build. Official target for 2020
now 60GW and discussing have 100 AP1000 reactors built or being built
by 2020. (1.25GW-1.7GW sizes). China starting in 2009 the construction
of a 200MW high temperature nuclear reactor which would have 40%
thermal efficiency and would be meltdown proof. Meltdown was shown in
10MW pilot reactor when cooling systems were turned off. The high
temperature reactors are designed for factory mass production.
Nuclear proliferation: to which countries ? Most countries already
have actual weapons or the means to produce them. Canada and many
other countries choose not to produce nuclear weapons. Countries have
historically gotten nuclear weapons first and then commercial nuclear
power. North Korea, nuclear weapons but no commercial nuclear power.
Plus the nuclear build will primarily be in places that already have
nuclear weapons and nuclear power.
Business as usual nuclear power is on track to increase 200GW and 1400
Twh by 2020. With an accelerated build effort and with 50% uprating
this can go to an increase of 600GW and 5200Twh. Wind, solar,
geothermal power should be built up as well but there is no reason to
not build up the nuclear power. Plus a lot of the build action will be
in China and Asia where Greenpeace sentiment is meaningless.
Supply Chain bottlenecks being removed
Not all nuclear reactors need the big containment dome forgings. Candu
reactors don't. Areva (france nuclear) is designing reactors that
would use a more easily built 300 ton forging. Russia also makes their
own forgings. South Korea's large forging capacity is coming online
and is already taking orders. Britain and China are also building up
large forging capacity. China is willing to weld two half size
forgings together (this was a procedure done earlier in the nuclear
industry).
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/05/united-states-and-russia-moving-forwa
rd.html Japan steel can turn out four of the steel forgings that
contain the radioactivity in a nuclear reactor. They will double
capacity in the next two years. Japan Steel caters to all nuclear
reactor makers except in Russia, which makes its own heavy forgings.
Plus Canada's CANDU reactor do not need these forgings. Areva, the
world's biggest reactor builder, is considering modifying its newest
design to be able to make the central reactor-vessel part from a
350-ton ingot instead of more than 500 tons as required today. Another
alternative is to turn back the technological clock and weld together
two smaller forgings, said John Fees, CEO of McDermott International
Inc.'s Babcock & Wilcox Co., which built the Three Mile Island
reactor. That technique was used over the past 40 years in the U.S.
and France and is still applied in China. China High temp reactors do
not need large forgings either. Neither would Hyperion Power
Generations Uranium hydride reactors.
Proliferation
Proliferate to which country or group? North Korea already has the
tech. Iran has all the know-how and is working on getting the
material. Pakistan has the bomb. What is the differential risk?
Countries get the bomb first then they get nuclear power. If China has
11 reactors and 300 nuclear bombs or if China has 500 nuclear reactors
and 300 nuclear bombs then what is the differential risk?
Proliferation already has happened slowly over the last 6 decades.
Proliferation has killed no one. No new country that has gotten
nuclear weapons has killed anyone with nuclear weapons. Meanwhile over
200 million people have died from air pollution and over 300,000 have
died from coal mining. Conventional weapons have killed over 150
million since the end of WW2. Why not concentrate on things that are
actually killing people every year in very large numbers instead of
theories of greater risk which are not correct. Should not more
dangerous or deadly actually kill more people?
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[54]195K superconductor at dry ice temperatures
[55]The formula for the 195K superconductor is
(Sn1.0Pb0.5In0.5)Ba4Tm6Cu8O22+. Its 1256/1212 structure is shown.
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A new method of production was developed. This new method of
synthesis, layers of 12x(x+1) and 1212 precursors are alternated in
a "layer cake" arrangement before sintering. Each layer was
initially pressed at 200 psi. Then, once all the layers were set,
the entire pellet was pressed at 70,000 psi and sintered in the
UPRIGHT position. When sintered in the "sideways" position, very
little of the desired phase forms. This suggests gravity
facilitates migration of the heavy thulium atoms. This technique
results in the desired phase forming along interference boundaries.
Ten times more 185K superconducting material was made and
detectable amounts of 195K material.
The 195K material is being patented. But the new method of
synthesis is being released into the public domain without patent
protection. It may be used freely without limitations. When
combined with the Tao Electrostatic Separation Technique, this
method should be able to produce a near homogenous 195K bulk
superconductor
.
NOTE: this was a highly systematic process to modify the makeup of the
material to find a higher criticial temperature structure.
The number of families of superconducting material is providing more
points of data for creating [62]unified theories for all
superconductors. Successful unified theories would be able to guide
the experimentalists even better on optimal doping strategies and
changes to the structures to tune the various properties of the
superconductors. This could allow rapid progress to the creation of
room temperature superconductors and material for moving higher energy
density and optimizing many other useful properties.
[63]There is also a low energy model and [64]electron pockets hole
model
This year has seen excellent experimental progress being made to room
temperature (300K) superconductors as well as [65]theoretical
progress. There has also been the [66]whole new class of higher
temperature iron based superconductors.
Getting up to dry ice temperatures will lower the cost of using the
superconductors because the cooling problems will be greatly
simplified. It gets us closer to the goals of room temperature
superconductors and some of the applications could be possible with
dry ice. Even the superconductors that need a lot more cooling are
being used for more efficient engines and generators that are three
times smaller than conventional. There has also been a commercial
pilot of superconducting cable for electric utility distribution.
Superconductors can also make better [67]magnets for nuclear fusion
reactors.
It appears that dry ice cooling temperatures are two to seven times
cheaper than liquid nitrogen temperatures.
WHAT WOULD COMMERCIALLY USABLE ROOM TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS MEAN ?
[68]BBC News talked about that anticipated but delayed vision from the
hoped for results from the 1987 "warmer" superconducting
breakthroughs.
Levitating high-speed trains, super-efficient power generators and
ultra-powerful supercomputers would become commonplace thanks to a
new breed of materials known as high temperature superconductors
(HTSC).
[69]Those difficult to manipulate superconductors have been on track
to make smaller and more efficient motors with commercial impact in
2010 [70]South Korea was making significant advances with 1300hp
superconducting generators.
[71]They were also being tested in 36.5 MW motors for navy ships.
Electric car motors would shrink to be one third the size for the same
power by using superconducting wire. Similar to the previously
mentioned improvement for the large superconducting motors of navy
ships. It is more difficult to make a cost efficient superconducting
small motor.
If room temperature superconductors were cheap to make they could
replace batteries and also the need for a car engine by storing the
power to run the car. Currently this is cost prohibitive.
[72]Wikipedia has an article on superconducting magnetic energy
storage
[73]Here was a more recent list of predictions of what "warm"
superconductors that we had before the most recent two announcements
could provide. 100Tbps routers, faster communications, faster
computers, better sensors and more. Room temperature versions would
make all of these things cheaper, more widespread and more powerful.
If the new room temperature superconductors have or can be made to
have a very high current density relative to their weight, then
[74]there is the possibility of a ground launched magnetic sail or
high performance magnetic sails for space propulsion.
[75]31 page pdf of the 1999 Zubrin study for Nasa on magnetic sails
[76]Getting up to 100 billion to 1 trillion or more amperes per cubic
meter is the current density for high performing magnetic sails.
D.G. Andrews and R.M. Zubrin, "Magnetic Sails and Interstellar
Travel." Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, 1990. The
first paper published, concerned primarily with the cost savings to
other propulsion systems from the use of the magsail as an
interstellar brake.
R.M. Zubrin and D.G. Andrews, "Magnetic Sails and Interplanetary
Travel." Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, April 1991. The
technical description and very thorough analysis of the magsail for
interplanetary travel. Excellent.
R.M. Zubrin, "The Magnetic Sail." Analog Science Fiction & Fact,
May 1992. A version of the above paper edited for a non-technical
audience. Useful for general concepts, inadequate for a full
understanding.
FURTHER READING
[77]Electrostatic Separation Technique for Superconductors is
described here. This technique will work to separate superconductors
from metallic as well as non-metallic materials.
In the electrostatic separation technique, a vertical capacitor
cell with dimensions 18mm X 15mm X 15mm was fashioned from a
U-shaped teflon spacer. 2 brass plates were attached to the open
sides of the spacer to create a cavity and provide electrodes for
the capacitor. The cavity was filled with liquid nitrogen and
particles of roughly 25-38um size were placed in the pool. High
voltage (1100 dcv/mm) was applied to the two metal electrodes for
at least two minutes. The electric field was then reduced (to 333
dcv/mm) for one minute. After collecting the respective particles,
they were found to be essentially pure BSCCO and pure Sb.
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