[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> on Tue Jul 22 09:11:17 UTC 2008

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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles

    1. [3]Offsetting Peak oil for one to two decades: Viable Electric
       cars for less than $5000 electric car credit
    2. [4]High Calibre Batman Villains
    3. [5]Sparse carbon nanotubes would be invisible but could support
       significant weight
    4. [6]More Recent Articles
    5. [7]Search Next Big Future

[8]Offsetting Peak oil for one to two decades: Viable Electric cars for less
than $5000 electric car credit

   Previously [9]this site looked at a technology that is almost in hand
   for solving excess manmade CO2 (possible global warming) and now a
   simple nearly in hand technology and plan for addressing peak oil.
   [10]They both need to be part of an overall energy and technology
   development plan, but a key point is technology and good planning can
   solve the issues that the world is concerned about. Some may say, hey
   if we can solve peak oil and climate change with those simple
   technologies and painless plans then we are done. No, we have to
   provide enough clean energy so that everyone living in China, India,
   Africa etc... can be rich. This will require a lot more energy per
   capita. Many of the negawatt plans are basically plans to make
   everyone poor with very little energy per person. Those negawatt are
   bad plans that ignore what people really want. Long term we will need
   to switch to clean electric power sources (nuclear fission, nuclear
   fusion, solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and others)
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   UPDATE: [17]H/T Instapundit. A description of why small cars are not
   unsafe on the road when hit by an SUV. Although we would be safer if
   there were fewer large vehicles on the road
   [18]John McCain has proposed a $5000 tax credit for electric cars.
   Inexpensive electric cars that cost less than $5000 could be purchased
   as extra commuter vehicles without the need to wait for people to get
   rid of their current cars which can take a decade or more. [19]A model
   of an inflatable electric car could be only $2500 in price and
   available starting in 2010-2011. Such an inexpensive vehicle would
   make economic sense to drivers who could have the cost recovered in
   fuel savings in one year or less instead of over ten years with
   current expensive hybrids.
   UPDATE: Addressing the possibility that the inflatable electric car
   does not deliver or [20]is a hoax. There are other cheap electric car
   possibilities listed here. An electric Tata Nano. The concepts for an
   inflatable electric car do not sound impossible and would seem to
   offer valid though radical concepts that would be worthwhile to
   research even if those behind XP Vehicles were not the ones to do it.
   This would be a solution to Peak Oil. Offsetting peak oil for one to
   two decades allows time for the transition build up of nuclear and
   other energy sources. Peak oil is the problem when oil production
   starts to decline and the price of oil increasing rapidly. Current
   price increases are peak lite, with demand exceeding supply and supply
   still increasing. If we are able to rapidly scale up to tens of
   millions and then hundreds of millions of electric cars below $5000
   with a driving range between charges over 200 miles and able to hold 4
   passengers then the electric commuter car should rapidly achieve
   50-80% adoption with some government support on prices and
   regulations. 30% of US and world fuel usage could then be displaced,
   which would be about 30 million barrels of oil per day. A straight
   line ten year deployment would be fuel savings that cumulatively
   increase at 3 million barrels of oil per day each year. If there was
   oil production decline then the 3 million barrels per day would offset
   the decline in production. This would free up any new algae biofuel
   production increases and other measures to address increased demand.
   [21]Inflatable electric cars could have 2500 mile range using a single
   hot-swap XPack Multi-CoreTM Battery/Fuel Cell power plant.
   40% of US oil is used for cars. There are 850 million cars in the
   world and 2 million of them are hybrid electric.
   [22]There are over 60,000 electric cars in the United States
   [23]There are many electric cars that are starting or will be starting
   production listed at wikipedia.
   [24]India's Tata Motors is rumored to produce a compressed air car
   that would cost around Rs. 350,000 [US$8200] in India with a range of
   300 km [180 miles] and would only need US$2 for the electricity to
   compress the air for refueling. None of the materials for the vehicle
   would have supply issues for replacing 850 million cars unlike Lithium
   for high performance batteries. [25]The range of the compressed air
   only car drops when it is driven at highway speeds to less than half
   the distance.
   Some analysts believe the need to build an infrastructure of
   compressor stations and the need to comply with strict safety
   standards would prevent the compressed air car from being any more
   than city based commuter option niche vehicle.
   "In North America, it's basically a nonstarter," says Rinek, admitting
   that there are limited niche markets. "The only potential, if any,
   would be for an inner-city, short-commute vehicle with an
   ultra-greenie owner."
   In the dual-mode version [hybrid], with assistance from fuel, speeds
   can reach 100 miles per hour, and range expands to 900 miles on less
   than a gallon of fuel (although the faster one goes, the shorter the
   range). [26]ZPM wants to produce a 6-seater, 75-hp model with a 1000
   mile range at 96 mph, all for just $17,800.
   [27]A compressed air car would have no expensive batteries to replace
   FURTHER READING
   [28]The cheapest cars in the world in March 2008 part One #10 to #6
   [29]The cheapest cars in the world in March 2008 part two #5 to #1
   #1. Tata Nano: 4-door hatchback. India. $2,497. Weighs about 700kg.
   #2. Chery QQ: 4-door hatchback. China. $4,781.
   #3. Suzuki Maruti 800: 5-door hatchback. $4,994.
   #4. Geely MR: 5-door. China. $5,500
   #5. Geely HQ SRV: 5-door "tall" estate. China $5,780
   [30]Light cars are the best for converting into electric cars
   [31]Twelve cheapest cars in the USA
   [32]A 2007 Business week look at the race to make cheap at less than
   or near $3000
   [33]The Speculist had noted that there appears to be a short bridge
   and transition in cars through hybrid cars to electric cars Very light
   electric cars (700 kg or less) would use one third or less the number
   of batteries which are the most expensive part of an electric car that
   is targeting the low end market. Using fewer batteries to move less
   material note only makes the car cheaper (which increases unit sales)
   but also allows for an easier ramp up of the battery industry to
   support more electric vehicles. Use one third the batteries and the
   same amount of batteries makes three cars instead of one. A projection
   of one million electric cars in one year becomes three million
   electric cars.
   Currently there are 25 million electric bikes and scooters being made
   each year. The bikes and scooters weight 25-200 pounds and move one
   person at up to 70mph with ranges up to 100 miles. A light electric
   car (including one or two passengers) might only move three times the
   weight of a loaded electric scooter 400-500 pounds). Three times the
   batteries would be 8 million electric cars to equal the batteries fo
   25 million more power electric scooters.
   Lighter cars with lower power requirements can also make better use of
   integrated solar panels. [34]The Prius is using 2-5 KW solar panels to
   power the air conditioning in a Toyota Prius
   5KW is 6.7 Horsepower. The Tata Nano has a 33 HP engine. An electric
   Tata Nano car with 5 KW solar panels could provide 1 hour of driving
   time for every 5 hours of charging time.
   [35]The model T had 20 HP (15KW) engine and a top speed of 40 mph
   [36]The Model T weighed 540 Kg
   Improve the solar cells to slightly over double the power generation
   would allow unlimited urban driving for an electric car.

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   cars for less than $5000 electric car credit'

[54]High Calibre Batman Villains

   [55]Who are the Batman villains that would be good enough or capable
   of being adapted into villains suitable for Batman [56]movies with the
   high quality of Dark Knight ?
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   [63]I agree with the Speculalist review that Dark Knight is a
   Godfather calibre movie
   Batman from the comics has a large collection of high quality
   villains. The best villains for the Christian Bale Batman would be
   ones with action and those who would create emotional, moral and
   psychological challenges. The villains also need to be adapted to be
   believable, which is more a writing challenge and how they are
   approached rather than something exclusively in the concept of the
   villain characters.
   [64]Catwoman : One of the primary love interests for Batman in the
   comics. An action character who is emotionally and romantically
   tempting.
   [65]Talia al Ghul and the remainders of the League of Assassins:
   Daughter of Ra's al Ghul (Batman Begins). There would be interesting
   plot dynamics here, but they would seem to be repeating Batman Begins.
   So there would need to be 2-4 movies done with other villains before
   going back to this well.
   Hugo Strange: Strange is an insane psychologist who knows Bruce
   Wayne's secret identity and lusts to take the identity for himself. He
   is also a chemical genius who can turn people into lumbering, brutal
   giants.
   A plot would get to delve deeply into the motivations of Batman and a
   very close pretender to Batman.
   Clayface : Cinematic face changing look. Could be just adjusted to be
   just a master of disguise. Probably a better secondary villain whose
   abilities makes it more difficult for Batman to defeat a primary
   villain.
   Hush: A childhood friend of Bruce Wayne's, Thomas "Tommy" Elliot
   targets both Batman and Bruce Wayne. Hush uses manipulation and guile
   instead of noisy "signatures".
   The Riddler : Already being tipped as the primary villain in the next
   movie. A good movie would focus on the mind games.
   Joker: He is used again and again in the comic books and can be
   brought back in the movies as well.
   Bane: Would need to be made more psychological interesting for a good
   movie. King Snake is a martial artist who becomes a mercenary, who was
   Bane's father in the comics.

     An escaped convict from an island prison in South America, Bane has
     abnormal strength as a result of having had experiments with a
     derivative of the drug Venom performed on him. He became known as
     "The Man Who Broke the Bat" when he broke Batman's spinal cord,
     forcing Bruce Wayne to give up the Batman persona while he
     recuperated.

   Deacon Blackfire: A religious fanatic who forms an army in the sewers
   beneath Gotham, largely composed of the homeless. A movie with this
   villain could make interesting comments upon religion. There could be
   personality cult followers of Batman used as a counter point.
   FURTHER READING
   [66]Upcoming comic based movies surveyed at Wired
   [67]the Speculist site noted the problem of maintaining the quality
   level in Batman sequels which boils down to quality villains who allow
   for a quality story.

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[85]Sparse carbon nanotubes would be invisible but could support significant
weight

   [86]Macroscopic invisible cables.
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   [93]This is not just theoretical because DARPA/MIT has already
   produced one foot long carbon nanotubes and should have one meter long
   carbon nanotubes by the end of this year or early in 2009.

     Spiders suggest to us that producing high strength over density
     ratio invisible cables could be of great importance. In this paper
     we show that such invisible cables could in principle be built,
     thanks to carbon nanotube bundles. Theoretical strength of ~10 MPa,
     Young's modulus of ~0.1 GPa and density of ~0.1 Kg/m3 are
     estimated. The theoretical strength over density ratio is huge,
     i.e. that of a single carbon nanotube; the strength of a real, thus
     defective, invisible cable is estimated to be ~1 MPa. Finally, we
     demonstrate that such cables can be easily transported in their
     visible state (with bunched nanotubes) and that an efficient
     anti-bunching controllable mechanism, involving pressure of ~1 Pa,
     can control the visible-invisible transition, and vice versa.

   [94]New Scientist indicates being narrower than the wavelength of
   light, carbno nanotubes are normally invisible - as long as they are
   separated by more than one wavelength

     Nicola Pugno of the Polytechnic of Turin in Italy has calculated
     how many nanotubes would be needed to support a person, taking into
     account small defects that develop in the tubes during manufacture.
     When held 5 micrometres apart, to keep them invisible, they would
     form a cable only 1 centimetre in diameter weighing a mere 10
     milligrams per kilometre.

   Applications: better live magic shows. More effective garrots and
   decapitation traps. Live shows with Matrix movie like wire work.
   These and keeping the carbon nanotubes invisible while very
   interesting and havnig uses will ultimately be cool yet trivial
   applications. The big applications are increasing production and
   lowering costs to increase the strength to weight ratio of materials
   used to build car, planes, buildings and other applications.
   Performance and efficiency can be radically increased and transform
   society.

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----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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