[tt] Next Big Future - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Sat Jul 12 10:56:17 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 4 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 4 new articles
1. [3]Wasteful government spending, unfunded projects and prom dates
2. [4]Microbial energy solution prospects for biofuels and solar
power
3. [5]Continental Resources Bakken oil 600 to 1000 barrel a day per
well
4. [6]Nuclear Plant Builder Shaw Group's conference call highlights
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search Next Big Future
[9]Wasteful government spending, unfunded projects and prom dates
Many people who discuss energy and environmental issues often complain
that if only project X or funding for Technology AB was cut or reduced
and the billions not wasted on it then that money could go to the
energy technology that I like or the energy project that I think would
work.
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This is massively flawed reasoning for several reasons:
1. The assumption that the massive waste and inefficiency in
government spending would re-assign freed up tax dollars for "the good
project" does not make sense given the track record.
Think of dates for the High School Prom.
If the girls are funders of projects and the guys are projects to be
funded, then if all the football players are somehow banned from the
prom it does not follow that all of the chess club members would now
get dates.
2. Lack of available funds is not the reason that certain projects are
not getting funded.
There could be a highly worthy (based on science and engineering)
energy project like the Fuji Molten salt reactor whose design is
languishing for lack of a few hundred million or a billion dollars of
funding. There is a world economy of $60 trillion/year and $1-2
trillion per year is going to energy infrastructure for building it or
researching it. So it is like there is a population of 60,000 women.
20,000-40,000 of them have to work on the farm or in the offices to
keep the city running. There is potentially 20,000 who could go to the
prom if it was important enough. Like 20,000 of them went to the World
war 2 mobilization prom. Many will choose to stay home or do something
else and just are not interested in the prom. Meanwhile 1000-2000 are
already going to the energy infrastructure and research prom. The fact
that one guy could not convince one of the 1000-2000 to go with him
instead of one of the other guys is not the only reason he did not get
a date. He could have asked and tried to convince one of the
18000-19000 available and eligible women to go with him. Only 15-25%
of the women work for a government [tax money and the rest are private
money]
So the suggestion would be that the dateless guy/unfunded project
needs to look at dressing better, working out and re-inventing himself
so that he is successful in getting a date/funded. In the case of
project, creating better plans, finding ways to do more preliminary
research that justifies the project and considering if the project
really makes sense given the overall situation in different regions
and countries.
Also, certain kinds of funders/women will never fund certain projects.
The chess club guy/fuji molten salt reactor may need to reconsider
only asking large breasted, blond women/specific nation with a
specific department for money and try to go for other sources.
Governments waste, corruption of the system and inefficiency is a lot
bigger than a few billion here or there.
[16]Here is a Heritage foundation list from 2005 of top ten items of
US government waste.
Some of the items:
Overpaying for medicine in medicare ($25-30 billion) could be saved
with reform.
Defaulted student loans $25 billion (some of the students did not
exist)
Other fraud
[17]2007 report indicates that government waste is at an all time high
[18]Big science projects that are unlikely to achieve the goals that
someone would want (International Tokamak fusion project supposedly
trying to achieve abundant,cheap and clean energy) may get cut but the
funds will not go into a better fusion project or a good advanced
fission but instead will go to funding the wars and defence spending.
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[36]Microbial energy solution prospects for biofuels and solar power
[37]The microbial energy solution for biofuels and solar power The
Biodesign team, in their Nature Review Microbiology perspective
article, outlines the prospects for bioenergy. They believe the future
of microbial bioenergy is brightened by recent advancements in genome
technologies and other molecular-biology techniques. One species of
bacteria, the human gut bacterium E. coli, has become the workhorse of
the multi-trillion dollar global biotech industry.
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Microorganisms can produce renewable energy in large quantities and
without damaging the environment or disrupting food supply. The
microbial communities must be robust and self-stabilizing, and
their essential syntrophies must be managed. Pre-genomic, genomic
and post-genomic tools can provide crucial information about the
structure and function of these microbial communities. Applying
these tools will help accelerate the rate at which microbial
bioenergy processes move from intriguing science to real-world
practice.
[44]A recent International Herald Tribune article reviewed the status
of having algae produce biofuel. Large-scale commercial production is
at least five years away, according to most estimates, and it is still
too early to say which methods, if any, will be economically viable,
how much energy they may produce and what their effects on the
environment might be. The U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory is
focusing on the development of commercial co-products for algae, like
ethanol or animal feed, which could help to improve profitability.
LiveFuels uses open ponds to grow algae that are indigenous to the
local environment, hoping that this will avoid the invasion
problem. Since algae need nutrients to grow, including nitrogen and
phosphorous, the company plans to feed agricultural runoff water -
polluted with nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizers - into its
ponds, combining energy production with water treatment.
Another company, Bionavitas, of Redmond, Washington, also grows
native algae, but in deep, narrow canals, with a special optical
system to bring light to the algae beneath the surface. It too
hopes to harness nutrients from polluted wastewater; and because
intense carbon dioxide inputs can speed growth, it envisages
setting up sites next to a factory that could funnel smokestack
emissions directly into its canals. Michael Weaver, the chief
executive, said that Bionavitas aimed to use "the whole algae" to
produce biodiesel, ethanol, nutriceuticals and products currently
derived from petroleum.
Vertigro, a U.S. company based in Vancouver, Canada, is testing
single varieties of algae, grown in bioreactors that resemble
hanging plastic bags, to see which grows best in a closed
environment and produces the most oil. Its business plan is to sell
its system to companies that would use it for commercial biofuel
production, said Glen Kertz, chief executive of Valcent Products, a
partner in Vertigro with Global Green Solutions, a sustainable
energy development business.
In Seattle, Blue Marble Energy is putting algal biomass in
anaerobic digesters to produce industrial chemicals and methane.
The latter is combusted in a turbine to generate electricity and
could also be used in fuel cells, said the chief executive, Kelly
Ogilvie. Saleable byproducts include ammonia, anhydrous ammonia,
and other industrial chemicals currently made with petroleum.
[45]Livefuels is also on this Earth2tech lis of 15 algae to fuel
startups
[46]From Sciencedaily, to date, approximately 75 genomes are available
from microorganisms that have a role in bioenergy production. These
include 21 genomes from methane producing archaea, 24 genomes from
bacteria that can produce hydrogen or electricity, and 30 genomes from
cyanobacteria that are potential biodiesel producers. At least half of
the completed microbial genomes that are relevant to bioenergy were
released in the past 2 years, and more than 80 bioenergy-related
genomes are currently being sequenced.
Biodesign researchers outline paths where bacteria are the best hope
in producing renewable energy in large quantities without damaging the
environment or competing with our food supply.
Two distinct, but complementary approaches will be needed. The first
is to use microbes to convert biomass to useful energy. Different
microorganisms can grow without oxygen to take this abundant organic
matter and convert it to useful forms of energy such as methane,
hydrogen, or even electricity. The second uses bacteria or algae that
can capture sunlight to produce new biomass that can be turned into
liquid fuels, like biodiesel, or converted by other microorganisms to
useful energy. Both approaches currently are intensive areas of
biofuel research at the Biodesign Institute, which has a joint project
with petroleum giant BP to harvest photosynthetic bacteria to produce
renewable liquid fuels, such as biodiesel.
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[64]Continental Resources Bakken oil 600 to 1000 barrel a day per well
[65]Continental Resources first well flowed at an average rate of 693
barrels of crude oil equivalent per day in its initial week of
production in May.
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The second well, Mathistad 1-35H, began production on July 4 and
flowed at an average rate of 1,095 barrels of crude oil equivalent per
day, with 90 percent of production being crude oil and 10 percent
natural gas.
Natixis Bleichroeder analyst Curtis Trimble said the latest results
from the Three Forks/Sanish formation increased the productive profile
of the Bakken Shale area.
"Future wells will be closer to the 600 to 1000 barrel a day level
versus previous wells that were averaging about 450 barrels a day,"
Trimble said.
Continental is the largest leaseholder in the Bakken Shale play with
about 500,000 acres in North Dakota and Montana.
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[89]Nuclear Plant Builder Shaw Group's conference call highlights
[90]Shaw Group is a partner in the AP1000 nuclear reactors
(Westinghouse/Toshiba). Shaw Group gets part of the revenue per AP1000
reactor is between $2 billion and $2.5 billion per reactor on an EPC
basis. They get 20% of the profits on the sale of the reactor units.
The reactors are currently somewhere around $3,500 of KW, something in
that range plus or minus 20%. [91]The Shaw Group is the architect
engineers for the AP1000 reactor group consortium.
As of the May 31, 2008 conference call:
we've gotten four reactors so far. Last year about this time we
told you we'd have two to eight so we've got four reactors. We have
a Letter of Intent for two more reactors in the United States and
that's with Progress and that should go to--hopefully go to an EPC
contract in the next two, three, four months. In addition to that
in the United States we feel comfortable that we will again be
awarded two to eight reactors over the next calendar year in the US
in calendar of 2009. South Africa it's pretty publically known that
the project is between three and 18 reactors with our competition
being Areva and that's about the only comment I have on that.
The UK market continues to develop quicker then we thought and that
market should follow very closely with the US market. India we are
still hopeful that during the calendar year that the treaty with
the current Bush administration will be signed and I think that
there's some movement on India due to the political parties having
a--I think the government has come to some type of understanding
with the minority party that that may have promise for the rest of
the year as well. We continue to--those are the major markets with
the exception of China, the other markets throughout the world are
mostly smaller, a couple of reactors in different countries. But
the global market is developing and continues to develop faster and
faster with the search for long-term economical sources of energy.
Steel increase may be $100 million on a nuclear power plant, if you
start to look at the effect of the cost of electricity over 40 years
on a $7 billion to $10 billion plant, its inconsequential.
David Yuschak - SMH Capital asked : Let's just talk about the nuclear
build particularly--and the last nuclear build the biggest problem
people got into and companies got into was the cash flows going to
those projects, things kind of got out of whack but a lot of excess
expectations, particularly in some of the smaller companies back then
given the size and the skill for the projects, as you look at this
next cycle, what do you think the nuclear owner has learned today to
make sure that the issues that kind of put them under the last time,
and in addition to the cash flow expectations needed to support that
may have changed compared to our last nuclear build.
I think the overriding difference is that a combination operating
license is issued before there's work done, construction work done on
the site. This means that once the plant is complete in accordance
with the permit that it can go into operation. In the past you had a
construction license where you could begin to build the construction
of a nuclear power plant and then a new crew from the NRC came in when
it was substantially finished and said, you know I need you to change
this, that and the other thing and before you get a operating permit
which tended to delay two to three years. Excessive changes during the
construction process ended up being longer delivery of the operating
unit. And if you recall back then, it's been such a long time, the
construction techniques from CAD systems to Intergraph or interfaces
are automatically cleared today with, you didn't know until you
actually erected piping systems or structural components so a lot of
things have changed. But I think that far and away the biggest change
is that once you have a [inaudible] construction operating license
that you're able to go ahead and build the plant and get it to work
and so we're encouraged by that and I think that that we have a good
handle on what we're required to do.
Q: How much time do you think it will take then to do a conventional
nuclear project today given these technologies and the licensing from
start to finish?
A: I think that from a first concrete poured in the field I think that
48 months would be a reasonable expectation.
FURTHER READING
[92]McDermott International is also involved in building nuclear
plants and equipment
[93]General Electric makes nuclear plants and wind turbines
[94]Exelon operates 17 nuclear reactors in the United States
As gas, coal and capacity prices increase and reserved margins decline
the value of our nuclear fleet increases. We expect that value to
increase even further in a carbon constraint world. While we don't
know just when will all three presidential candidates pledge to carbon
legislation and even President Bush now advocating action. We believe
that legislation will be inactive in 2009 or 2010 with a likely
effective date sometime in 2012 or 2013.
[95]Dominion Resources is a utility that operates nuclear power plants
Our third unit at our North Anna nuclear station remains on track.
We mentioned to you on our last call that the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission had received and reviewed our combined operating license
application. The application was deemed to complete and a
scheduling order issued. We've already received approval for early
site permit and we stand first in line to receive our combined
operating license from the NRC in the latter part of 2011. This
approval would place us as the first company in the nation to begin
construction of a new nuclear unit in nearly three decades.
Additionally, we plan to apply this summer for federal loan
guarantees at the Department of Energy.
The approval process to construct a nuclear plant rests with the
NRC. Because we are a regulated utility in Virginia, our earned
return on the plant during construction and its service life is
determined by state law. Under Virginia law, we will be eligible to
file for a premium of 200 basis points on the allowed base return
on equity for this nuclear unit, which we plan to do later this
year.
There appears to be a continuing misunderstanding among some in the
financial community about the procedural requirements necessary to
construct a nuclear facility in the United States. This
misconception probably arises from the flurry of announcements by
companies, some regulated, some merchant, some who have early site
permits, and some who seek the site permits as part of a combined
operating license application. Every company, whether regulated or
unregulated, must have an NRC issued COL to begin safety related
construction of a new nuclear unit regardless of all other approval
requirements, including State Commission approvals. To help
understand the process, at least from our perspective, please refer
to Dominion's Investor Relations website under our supplemental
schedules for an outline of the application process to begin such
construction.
[96]Entergy Corp is another utility operating nuclear reactors in the
USA
[97]The Shaw group expanded operations and opened new offices in China
to support the increased nuclear business in China
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127. http://www.feedblitz.com/
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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