[tt] Next Big Future - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
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Wed Jul 9 08:06:37 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 4 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 4 new articles
1. [3]Per Peterson information on steel and concrete needed for
different energy
2. [4]Possible genetic cause of SIDS
3. [5]Anton, special purpose supercomputer for molecular simulations
4. [6]The next Bussard IEC fusion reactor could be 100MW size
producing net energy
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search Next Big Future
[9]Per Peterson information on steel and concrete needed for different
energy
[10]Per Peterson, Prof at Berkeley provides information on
construction material for energy. 95% of construction inputs are steel
and concrete.
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China is making 1250MW AP1000's now, 1400MW in the next batch and
1700MW for the ones after that
[17]Information is mostly from this Per Peterson powerpoint
presentation on nuclear energy
[2627641798_9dedf8cc9a.jpg?v=0]
Energy from coal, 7.3 million kg per day for a 1GW plant.
[2627670466_bf4bd33952.jpg?v=0]
Energy from nuclear fission, 3.2kg of fuel used per day for a 1GW
plant.
[2627670478_7531e7fcc5.jpg?v=0]
Energy from nuclear fusion. 0.6kg per day of fuel for a 1GW plant
[2627670586_4dd2f07c83.jpg?v=0]
Nuclear safety study from 2004
[2627670570_6abe01a2d7.jpg?v=0]
Nuclear workers compared to other industries
[2627670560_9667e8eca5.jpg?v=0]
CO2 comparison for different energy sources
FURTHER READING
[18]Nuclear Energy: 1996, 2006, 2016 by Per Peterson
[19]Nuclear Research by Per Peterson
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[37]Possible genetic cause of SIDS
[38]The Economist reports on a science paper, Sudden Infant death
Syndrome (SIDS) may have a genetic cause.
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Dr Audero's results suggest that some upset of the serotonin system
may be a necessary, but not always sufficient, part of the pattern
that leads to SIDS. It will be enough to kill some children, but
needs an environmental "boost" in other cases. If research can
establish that is true, then it may be possible to screen infants
and single out those at risk, so that parents can take suitable
precautions. That would be a very good thing indeed.
SUDDEN infant death syndrome (SIDS) is the biggest killer of babies
over one month old in the rich world.
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[62]Anton, special purpose supercomputer for molecular simulations
[63]A special purpose supercomputer, Anton, is being made to
accelerate the modelling of protein folding and provide a thousandfold
increase in performance for complex molecular simulations.
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The effort is being led by David E. Shaw, a billionaire computer
scientist. In the 1990s, Mr. Shaw was one of the most successful of
an elite group of technologists pursuing computer-based trading
strategies on Wall Street. Several years ago Mr. Shaw, who is also
a major investor in Schrdinger, a chemical simulation software
firm, stepped away from day-to-day management of his investment
firm, D. E. Shaw & Company. He is now chief scientist of D. E. Shaw
Research. It could be used to investigate problems of great
scientific interest, like the folding of protein molecules, and in
the design of drugs based on the simulated biological activity of
different molecules.
Note: This is what billionaires and near billionaires should be doing
funding grand technological and scientific research projects that
could create huge advances for civilizations capabilities. Fund high
leverage, high risk and high potential world changing projects.
[70]SENS still needs another billionaire or two and Robert Freitas and
Ralph Merkle need one to enable rapid develop of their [71]diamond
mechanosynthesis work.
[72]Anton is described in an ACM paper
The ability to perform long, accurate molecular dynamics (MD)
simulations involving proteins and other biological macro-molecules
could in principle provide answers to some of the most important
currently outstanding questions in the fields of biology, chemistry,
and medicine. A wide range of biologically interesting phenomena,
however, occur over timescales on the order of a millisecond---several
orders of magnitude beyond the duration of the longest current MD
simulations.
We describe a massively parallel machine called Anton, which should be
capable of executing millisecond-scale classical MD simulations of
such biomolecular systems. The machine, which is scheduled for
completion by the end of 2008, is based on 512 identical MD-specific
ASICs that interact in a tightly coupled manner using a specialized
highspeed communication network. Anton has been designed to use both
novel parallel algorithms and special-purpose logic to dramatically
accelerate those calculations that dominate the time required for a
typical MD simulation. The remainder of the simulation algorithm is
executed by a programmable portion of each chip that achieves a
substantial degree of parallelism while preserving the flexibility
necessary to accommodate anticipated advances in physical models and
simulation methods.
Simulations of processes like the folding of proteins into
three-dimensional structures or the interactions between proteins or
between a protein and a drug molecule hold out the promise of
advancing science and drug development. However, each simulation must
be validated by experimental scientists in a laboratory setting. Thus
one of the principal advantages of increased speed in simulations that
now take thousands of hours on the fastest supercomputers is to speed
the time to the laboratory.
Scientists said the real value of Anton might not be known until they
find out what the machine can do. "Only after Anton van Leeuwenhoek
used his microscope did he see protozoa in the pond water," said Roger
Brent, director of the Molecular Sciences Institute, an independent
research laboratory in Berkeley, Calif.
[73]In molecular dynamics (MD), you must divide time into discrete
1-femtosecond time steps.
If the time steps are too long, individual atoms run into each
other, get higher energy configurations, and everything becomes
unstable. For each individual step, you must compute the
interaction between all pairs of particles, determined by molecular
force fields. Then you must move each atom a tiny bit and repeat
the process a huge number of times.
Two approaches to protein-folding simulation include simulating
many short trajectories and simulating one very long MD trajectory.
While both approaches are complementary, Shaw's group practices the
second approach, which requires enormous amount of parallelism. To
reach their goal of simulating a full millisecond requires an
enormous increase in speed -- 10,000 times more speed than
single-processors, and 1000 times the speed of the best existing
parallel implementations. "We are several orders of magnitude from
where we need to be," said Shaw.
Shaw's lab has also created specialized software, dubbed Desmond,
for MD. It's developed to run on Anton but the algorithm can be
adapted to run on computational clusters
Shaw cautioned that we don't know enough about the accuracy of
molecular force fields, and that maybe after 100 or so
microseconds, a small inaccuracy in the force field calculation
"would lead to a very fast way of getting the wrong answer."
FURTHER READING
[74]From HPCwire review of the Newport conference
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[92]The next Bussard IEC fusion reactor could be 100MW size producing net
energy
[93]Dr Nebel is talking about is a 1.5 meter 100 MW net power fusion
reactor Dr Nebel has said he is getting good data from the WB7 test
device. He is under a publishing embargo and cannot discuss the data,
(neutron counts) but he has said the next device might as well be a
100MW version. This 100MW version may only cost $3 million to make.
The implication is that Dr Nebel and his team are getting very good
results. Hopefully this speculation is confirmed in August or
September of this year with results published and next stages funded.
Dr Nebel said: The one you have to worry about is the input power
scaling, because that one is related to the plasma losses (or
transport). This one answers the question of "How much power do I
need to supply to the device to maintain constant Beta".
Theoretical modeling of transport has a much poorer track record
than plasma equilibrium has. These scaling laws are where the major
risks for the larger device reside. The major saving grace is that
for the Polywell is that the projected average densities are ~ 2
orders of magnitude higher than they are in Tokamaks so the energy
confinement times don't have to be all that good. (It's the product
of the density and the confinement time that's important.) Our
contention is that since our projections for a power producing
device only require a machine [1.5 Meters in diameter would in
theory be able to produce something around 100MW of net power] we
might as well build the next one in that size range and accept the
risk. The machines just aren't all that expensive. Also, there are
a multitude of things that can be done to improve confinement (such
as pulse discharge cleaning, pellet injection, etc.) that have been
successful in the magnetic confinement program that can be
instituted if our projections fall short. This approach will
minimize the development time and lead to a lower costs for the
overall program.
The peak fields for the reactor designs (at least for our reactor
designs) are in the 5-10 T range. however, these are work in progress.
We have run Gauss meters all over the face of the cubes and through
the corners and we don't see any low field regions. The fields peak
near the conductors and fall off near the coil centers, as you would
expect.
Other Dr Nebel comments of interest:
1. The theory says that you can beat Bremstrahlung, but it's a
challenge. The key is to keep the Boron concentration low compared
the proton concentration so Z isn't too bad. You pay for it in
power density, but there is an optimum which works. You also gain
because the electron energies are low in the high density regions.
2. The size arguments apply for machines where confinement is
limited by cross-field diffusion like Tokamaks. They don't apply
for electrostatic machines.
3. The Polywell doesn't have any lines of zero field. Take a look
at the original papers on the configuration. See :
Bussard R.W., FusionTechnology, Vol. 19, 273, (1991) .
or
Krall N.A., Fusion Technology. Vol. 22, 42 (1992).
Furthermore, one expects adiabatic behavior along the field lines
external to the device. Thus, what goes out comes back in. Phase
space scattering is small because the density is small external to
the device.
4. The machine does not use a bi-modal velocity distribution. We
have looked at two-stream in detail, and it is not an issue for
this machine. The most definitive treatise on the ions is : L.
Chacon, G. H. Miley, D. C. Barnes, D. A. Knoll, Phys. Plasmas 7,
4547 (2000) which concluded partially relaxed ion distributions
work just fine. Furthermore, the Polywell doesn't even require ion
convergence to work (unlike most other electrostatic devices). It
helps, but it isn't a requirement.
5. The system doesn't have grids. It has magnetically insulated
coil cases to provide the electrostatic acceleration. That's what
keeps the losses tolerable.
6. The electrostatic potential well is an issue. Maintaining it
depends on the detailed particle balance. The "knobs" that affect
it are the electron confinement time, the ion confinement time, and
the electron injection current. There are methods of controlling
all of these knobs.
Bussard thought the truncated dodecahedron might be better than the
truncated cube of WB-6. Reason, the cusps are smaller, the triangular
corners of the "cube". The electrons would have a tougher time
escaping.
FURTHER READING
[94]Where Dr Nebel originally posted his comments about making a
reactor of "that size"
[95]More questions from Art Carlson, the critique who was having a
productive exchange with Dr Nebel
[96]M Simon notes some problems and challenges for a 100MW version of
an IEC fusion reactor.
The "first wall" problem is the hardest of the "we have very little
idea" problems. A B11 coating has been tried for ITER. That would
be ideal if it works. However, ITER is now looking into diamond
coating. No mention of Boron these days.
Cooling the coils from alpha impingement is hard. But we do know
where to start and we do have some tricks.
Some other lesser problems: design for compactness and energy
extraction. Power converter designs. Control of reactant flows.
Superconducting magnets. Integrated reactor controls. POPS
enhancement.
[97]Roger Fox has written a diary on Dr Nebel's work and Dr Nebels
comments and adds his own speculation
Currently the fuel is "puffed" in gaseous form, there is no
carburetor. The fuel ions are puffed in, the plasma lights up, some
fusion occurs, and the magnets get very hot. All this occurs in
under a second. It takes hours for the magnets to cool down for the
next run. Superconducting magnets would solve this problem, but at
a much higher cost.
Theory says if you scale up the 35 cm magnets to 2 meters, you will
have a 500 mw net power reactor. This scaling theory is unproven. A
carburetor also needs to be built and there is a possibility that
slightly different designs can be more efficient.
[98]An introduction to inertial confinement fusion
IEC fusion uses magnets to contain an electron cloud in the center. It
is a variation on the electron gun and vacuum tube in television
technology. Then they inject the fuel (deuterium or lithium, boron) as
positive ions. The positive ions get attracted to the high negative
charge at a speed sufficient for fusion. Speed and electron volt
charge can be converted over to temperature. The electrons hitting the
TV screen can be converted from electron volts to 200 million degrees.
The old problem was that if you had a physical grid in the center then
you could not get higher than 98% efficiency because ions would
collide with the grid. Bussard's innovation was to use magnets in a
configuration that the electrons and ions never hit and keep losses
100,000 times lower. 99.999+% efficiency.
[99]Previous update on the inertial confinement fusion demonstration
project
[100]A review of new funded approaches to nuclear fusion
[101]If IEC nuclear fusion works as well as hoped then not only does
it solve energy issues but also provides super space capabilities with
launch costs reduced 1000 times
[102]Even expensive net power generation means that one fusion reactor
can burn the fuel of ten regular fission reactors to make all nuclear
power cleaner.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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