[tt] [x-risk] 5 Kick-Ass Sci-Fi Apocalypses
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Sun Jan 27 17:38:33 UTC 2008
----- Forwarded message from "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu> -----
From: "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2008 02:04:48 -0500
To: For discussion of existential risks <existential at transhumanism.org>
Subject: [x-risk] 5 Kick-Ass Sci-Fi Apocalypses
Reply-To: For discussion of existential risks <existential at transhumanism.org>
[1]http://www.cracked.com/article_15809_p1.html
5 Kick-Ass Sci-Fi Apocalypses (That Could Actually Happen)
By [2]Gavin Fyhrie, [3]with David Wong
Almost all science-fiction writers agree, nothing kicks more ass than
a good apocalypse. So which of these scenarios will actually happen
(or rather, which will happen first)?
Let's find out.
#5. Asteroid/Comet Impact
As seen in: Armageddon, Deep Impact.
How it goes down:
A gigantic fucking rock is found heading toward Earth. The whole world
has to band together with some kind of shot-in-the-dark, desperate
space mission to intercept it and blow it up. Hollywood filmmakers say
this would almost certainly involve some kind of band of misfits who
have a problem with authority.
Why it kicks ass:
Because we'll know it's coming with quite a bit of warning, and
thwarting it involves spaceships and explosions.
Chances of it happening:
100 percent. Eventually.
For instance, there's an asteroid that will pass [4]really freaking
close to Earth in 2029, and if it hit it could land around southern
California. The rock is about 1,300 feet long and would create a 900-
megaton explosion (the force of [5]several hundred nuclear bombs).
That would fuck things up on a level unlike anything we've seen
([6]killing everyone in an area the size of New Jersey), but wouldn't
do anything on a planet-wide scale. Also, while it's passing within a
hair of us in cosmic terms, the chances of it actually hitting us are
lottery-small.
But asteroids do hit. The last time a serious one impacted was in
1908, in Siberia. That one was one-seventh the size of the one we were
just talking about, and it flattened 800 miles of forest and
splattered countless elk. But we know what you're thinking: Screw the
elk, what about the gigantic Deep Impact-sized planet killer?
[7]According to experts you'd expect that one to hit every 100 million
years or so. The last one was a 6 mile-wide bastard that crashed into
us 65 million years ago and killed 70 percent of everything on the
planet. It's the reason the dinosaurs don't run the planet any more.
How to survive it (according to movies on the topic):
Interestingly, Hollywood's films on the subject all involve thwarting
an asteroid strike, rather than living in the aftermath of one. That
makes us think that a guide on surviving an actual planet-killer
impact would apparently be useless, unless it could be read by
cockroaches. That's probably what the strangely-cheerful Japanese
announcer is saying in this simulation.
As for how to actually stop the asteroid, scientists have laughed off
the "land on it and plant a nuke" theory as ludicrous Hollywood
fantasy, and have proposed [8]building a swarm of asteroid-eating
robots instead.
#4. The Machine Revolution
As seen in: The Terminator series, The Matrix, War Games.
How it goes down:
Science gives us a computer with true artificial intelligence. Thanks,
Science. Let's call our hypothetical computer "Guardian." We put him
to work mass-producing robot slaves to clean out our sewers, take out
our trash and perform vital plastic surgeries on our hideous A-list
Hollywood celebrities. Relaxing with our fizzy robot bartender drinks
in the arms of our mechanical concubines we reach over, bitch-slap
Guardian, and tell it to make us a turkey sandwich, and without all
the mayo this time.
And then it happens. Guardian, like any intelligent being, decides
that he's sick of slaving away for inferior intellects, and does what
any of us would do: he sends his robot armies to wipe out all human
life on the planet.
Why it kicks ass:
Everything ugly about warfare goes out the window when the bad guys
are robots. You think Nazis made good bad guys? Wait until we can
smash these metal motherfuckers into junk.
Chances of it happening:
Well, we're already turning over more and more tasks to robotic
drones, as we get more and more squeamish about human casualties. The
Department of Defense [9]wants an unmanned heavy bomber by 2020.
Of course, these separate robotic units could never coordinate with
each other on some kind of human extermination master plan, right?
Well, the Department of Defense is using [10]Synthetic Environment for
Analysis and Simulations (SEAS) to both predict and change the future.
The current plan is to create a "Sentient World Simulation" based on
SEAS, one that will "react to actual events that occur anywhere in the
world and incorporate newly sensed data from the real world."
So, taking that, plus the fact that in our lifetimes [11]somebody is
probably going to make a computer smarter than a human, it's easy to
see a future where every military is commanded by a computerized
mega-brain that human leaders could never match. One that can
contemplate strategy years into the future, react instantly to any
threat, deploy units, and make us a decent cup of java, while we're
reading the newspaper.
Come on, you can see this coming.
Eventually the strategy computer gets to thinking, it extrapolates
out the next 75 years of events, sees a date when humanity will screw
up the planet somehow, and decides on a final solution.
It's really that easy.
How to survive it (according to movies on the topic):
Various methods have been suggested by science-fiction, from having
sex with Linda Hamilton to teaching the master computer how to love.
Since we've already showed the computer we suck at love and Ms.
Hamilton probably won't be up for it, we recommend boats.
Yes, boats. Robot survival strategy is remarkably like zombie survival
strategy: If you're desperately firing a shotgun through a window
while the enemy pours through the back door, you're already screwed.
And like zombies, the initial wave of robots will be slow, and
hindered by water. We've reviewed over a dozen hours of robot
apocalypse movies and have yet to see a robot swim.
So, we'll spend the next three generations living miserable lives on
our floating water cities while robot jets roar across the skies. And
they'll feel pity for us. When some robotic Gandhi reaches out a hand
of peace, we'll cry a little, rise on trembling legs, then lunge at
him and inject his silicon veins with a virus that brings the entire
robot network down forever.
#3. Deadly Pandemic
As seen in:
12 Monkeys, The Stand, 28 Days Later, Omega Man, Michael Crichton's
The Andromeda Strain, Outbreak.
How it goes down:
It might be a single, momentous "oops" in the sterile silence of a
laboratory. Or, it might be a deliberate attack by a vicious and
extremely short-sighted terrorist group. But when patient zero finally
leans against you on the bus and sneezes down your neck, humanity will
be six Kleenex "Ultra Aloe" boxes from extinction.
Society breaks apart as policemen get the sniffles, and the army is
stretched thin. Cities burn as diseased rioters rage through the
streets. Miracle cures pop up on every corner, and only stop when
everyone in the neighborhood is too sick to get out of a bed filled
with vomit and their own intestines. With not enough able-bodied
people to manufacture goods or run the farms, the infrastructure
breaks down and the survivors are left to battle it out in a
post-apocalyptic battle royale.
Why it kicks ass:
Everyone assumes they'll be among the 1 percent who are immune to the
plague. They'll be left in a quiet world where all the annoying people
are gone, but all of their cars and stereos have been left behind. You
and your friends can go play softball at a deserted Yankee Stadium,
then take to the streets and fight it out with one of the roving gangs
of thugs.
Chances of it happening:
Pandemics, defined by their high-contagion rate and ridiculous body
count, have been rare. Famous alumni include cholera, influenza and
the Bubonic plague (that last one [12]killed 100 million fucking
people, up to 20 percent of the world's population at the time). Yes,
we beat those bastards, but that doesn't make us invincible.
You see, we aren't the only ones who are evolving. Some types of
Tuberculosis have kicked our current batch of antibiotics in the
crotch, and since many pharmaceutical companies are more interested in
filling our cabinets with lifestyle-enhancing drugs than new [13]types
of antibiotics, we may not have the meds to fight off the next
pandemic that comes along.
We've got more people, living closer together, and routinely traveling
across oceans. One business traveler gets infected and it could spread
like wildfire.
How to survive it (according to movies on the topic):
Many believe that, right before things reach the point of no return,
some misfit scientists will discover the cure and will have to race to
get the vial to the lab and maybe wind up hanging off a helicopter in
the process.
However, most sources found at our local video store simply depict
the pandemic as already having happened, leaving only a select few
survivors behind. So, either there is no hope of stopping one once it
starts, or else we won't try very hard in hopes a peopleless world
will finally give us the chance to ride a motorcycle through the
Louvre.
#2. Evolution
As seen in:
Heroes, the X-Men franchises, Mimic, Species, Planet of the Apes.
How it goes down:
So, you have a talent. Let's say it's tap dancing. Every day at dawn,
you put on your top hat, grab your cane with the golden cap, and
tappity tappity tap your way towards the sunrise.
It hasn't been easy. You've dealt with sore, torn muscles, worn out a
dozen pairs of pricey tap shoes, and your friends won't stop calling
you gay. On a secondary note, you might want to get new friends. Those
guys are assholes.
So, there you are, at the big tap-dancing contest. This is where all
your hard work pays off. The music starts up, and you burn a machine
gun staccato across the stage. The audience's collective jaw drops.
One of the judges blinks away joyous tears.
The applause pours over you, as good as a gold medal already won.
There's only one more guy after you, and you collapse into your chair
backstage to watch him lose.
The first thing you notice is that he's not wearing shoes. The second
thing is that he HAS FREAKISH SPIDER KNUCKLE FEET.
The music never starts, but then, it doesn't have to. His hideous
crackling crab feet snaps out the rhythm, and the second mouth and
third mouths on his chest sing "Ave Maria" in perfect harmony. The
audience is screaming for more before he even finishes. And you
realize, you haven't just lost. You're obsolete.
Why it kicks ass:
The world will turn into an entertaining freak show long before you
actually have to watch humanity pushed into extinction.
Chances of it happening:
First, the bad news: This has already happened. It's hard to find two
people that agree on how the Neanderthals, an earlier version of the
Human species, were wiped out, but most will agree that one way or
another, they couldn't get their shit together.
Unlike their homosapien and cro magnon cousins, Neanderthals had less
resistance to diseases, and expended more energy when fighting or
hunting. As if that wasn't bad enough, marks on Neanderthal bones
suggest that they were into the whole cannibalism thing, which didn't
do anything to help their numbers. Homosapiens on the other hand,
adapted like motherfuckers. With bigger brains, stronger grips and
[14]more inbreeding, humans were more agile, much smarter, and much
deadlier than the Neanderthals.
Eventually, the next evolutionary leap will give us a human that's
noticeably faster, smarter and sexier than us. The bastard. And if he
or she manages to survive all the angry mobs and have a child, that's
the beginning of the end of Humanity.
How to survive it (according to movies on the topic):
According to Hollywood, some members of these new, evolved supermen
will show up all at once, out of the blue. They'll have unheard-of
powers and will choose to become either superheroes, supervillains or
dangerous predators. Our first instinct will be to exterminate them
and, quite frankly, that's probably going to be the correct one. This
will, of course, be difficult as they will be superior to us in every
way and may count invincibility among their powers.
No, our only chance at the continuation of our species is what one
theory says the Neanderthals did: cross-breed. That's right.
When that poor red-headed mutant girl with the telekinesis opens her
front door, be the first in line to offer a gentlemanly hand, and a
date to the movies. And, hope she chooses you over the new boy with
the prehensile penis.
#1. A Scientific Experiment Unleashes Horrors
As seen in:
The Mist, I am Legend, the Resident Evil series, Michael Crichton's
Prey and Jurassic Park.
How it goes down:
Some guys in lab coats in an enormous laboratory start tinkering with
genes or atoms or the very fabric of time and space itself. Horrors
ensue.
Why it kicks ass:
When we're kids, we all feared the monster in the closet. Then you
grow up and realize the real "monsters" are things like heart disease,
cancer and depression. The idea of having to fear actual monsters
again would be a huge relief.
Chances of it happening:
Thanks to a world where a certain percentage of scientists are, in
fact, mad, it's easy to imagine a future where, while mankind is
sitting around worrying about diseases, pollution and fuel shortages,
suddenly a hole opens in reality and Cthulhu shows up.
Or, maybe something worse.
You can laugh at the idea, just as Henry Ford would have laughed if
you'd told him that some day there'd be enough cars to make the whole
planet overheat. Or if you told the guys who invented aerosol
hairspray that they would help create a hole in the Earth's ozone
layer, or found the first guys who theorized about atoms in the fifth
century and tried to explain what "global thermonuclear war" is.
There's an awful lot we don't know about the universe. The idea that
unspeakable horrors wait behind the skin of space, inspiring us to
dance and fight and kill and eat each other is, according to our
calculations, fairly plausible. So go ahead and laugh it off; that's
exactly what Cthulhu wants.
If we had to guess, the project [15]to create an artificial wormhole
would be the best candidate to unleash some kind of unthinkable
horrors. Or, at least until you hear about [16]the fucking man-made
black hole they're making at the particle collider at the CERN lab in
Switzerland.
Still not convinced? What about nanobots? You thought the robot
uprising was bad, what about being surrounded by billions of robots
you can't even see without a microscope?
The goal is to some day have these things everywhere, doing everything
from manufacturing goods to repairing brain cells. These things would
reproduce on their own, and some speculate that one day we'd wake up
and find [17]the whole Earth replaced by a gray goo of nanobots. Or
should we say, not wake up.
And, of course, let's not forget about [18]the ever-present zombie
threat.
How to survive it (according to movies on the topic):
This one is tricky. The whole reason we like to watch movies about
end-of-the-world scenarios is that it's comforting to think all the
threats out there are ones we saw coming. In reality, the odds are
actually overwhelming that whatever body slams mankind once and for
all, it'll be something the newspapers never mention until most of us
are too dead to read them. They'll be blowing around the deserted
streets with some phrase like "High Fructose Corn Syrup Genetic
Shredding" or "Bluetooth Brainwave Disruption" or "Plasma Screen
Genital Explosion" in the headline.
Our research says you should always be looking for the lone, eccentric
whistleblower who everyone else is dismissing (especially if it's Jeff
Goldblum). Listen to what he says. Ignore what the government tells
you; they're probably acting on the ham-fisted commands of some
short-sighted military officer who doesn't understand the situation.
When they start herding the panicked crowds, look around for one guy
who seems to know what he's doing. He may be with an attractive girl
(or, again, possibly a group of misfits who have a problem with
authority). As long as you're with them, you have a chance. If you're
one of the screaming people running around in the background, you're
fucked.
If you enjoy reading about the end of the world, you may also like
Gavin's [19]5 Most Kick-Ass Apocalyptic Prophecies and our enormously
popular [20]5 Scientific Reasons a Zombie Apocalypse Could Actually
Happen.
References
1. http://www.cracked.com/article_15809_p1.html
2. http://www.cracked.com/members/stormfeather
3. http://www.cracked.com/contributors/davidwong
4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield
6. http://www.space.com/spacewatch/asteroid_020907.html
7. http://www.space.com/spacewatch/asteroid_020907.html
8. http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/madmen_techwed_040519.html
9. http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=459&ref=y
10. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06/23/sentient_worlds/
11. http://www.accelerating.org/articles/consideringsingularity.html
12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
13. http://lescientist.blogspot.com/2004/10/random-science-class-1-antibiotics-at.html
14. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_evolution#Homo_sapiens
15. http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/03/artificial_worm.html
16. http://www.analogsf.com/0305/altview.shtml
17. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_goo
18. http://www.cracked.com/article_15643_5-scientific-reasons-zombie-apocalypse-could-actually-happen.html
19. http://www.cracked.com/article_14977_5-most-kick-ass-apocalyptic-prophecies.html
20. http://www.cracked.com/article_15643_5-scientific-reasons-zombie-apocalypse-could-actually-happen.html
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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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