[tt] [SALT] Paul Saffo tells all, FRIDAY Jan 11 (for forwarding)

[Eugen Leitl]

----- Forwarded message from Stewart Brand <sb at gbn.org> -----

From: Stewart Brand <sb at gbn.org>
Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2008 10:20:25 -0800
To: salt at list.longnow.org
Subject: [SALT] Paul Saffo tells all, FRIDAY Jan 11 (for forwarding)
Reply-To: services at longnow.org


   What a revelation it is when a consummate professional divulges the
   tricks of his trade.  What a surprise it is when a forecaster is
   mostly right instead of mostly wrong, and offers deep insight even
   when wrong.  No wonder journalists routinely call Paul Saffo to get
   the pithy quote that will jar their story to life.

   "Effective forecasting is not merely possible, but remarkably easy,"
   he says.  "All it takes is a simple shift in perspective and a few
   common-sense heuristics."

   Saffo draws on his study of the history of technology to give unusual
   perspective on the accelerating wavefront of current technology and
   what it means and will mean.  As a Long Now board member, he slots
   forecasting neatly into long-term thinking.

   "Embracing Uncertainty: the Secret to Effective Forecasting," Paul
   Saffo, Cowell Theater, Fort  Mason, San Francisco, 7pm, Friday,
   January 11.  The lecture starts promptly at 7:30pm.  Admission is free
   (a $10 donation is always welcome, not required).

   Note:  There will be a reception at The Long Now Museum and Store
   following the talk, just 70 yards from the Cowell Theater, in Building
   "A" at Fort Mason, right next to Greens Restaurant.

   Members note:  There's a bonus to Long Now membership that I hadn't
   really appreciated until now.  A book I'm writing is drawing on
   several of the talks in the SALT series.  With each of the
   member-viewable, high-quality videos of the talks FORA.tv provides a
   transcript divided into chapters (each cued to that point in the
   video), SEARCHABLE! (also cued), and downloadable as a pdf file.  Just
   what I needed.  Membership costs $8/month ($96/year) and helps support
   the series.  Joinable [1]here.

   Talks coming up:

   Feb. 4 (MONDAY)  - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Future Has Always Been
   Crazier Than We Thought"

   Feb. 25 (MONDAY) - Craig Venter, "Joining 3.5 Billion Years of
   Microbial Invention"

   Apr. 25 (Friday) - Niall Ferguson & Peter Schwartz, "Historian vs.
   Futurist on Human Progress"

   May 21 (WEDNESDAY) - Iqbal Quadir, "Technology Empowers the Poorest"

   Jul. 23 (WEDNESDAY) - Edward Burtynsky, "The 10,000-year Gallery"

   This is one of a monthly series of Seminars About Long-term Thinking
   (SALT) organized by The Long Now Foundation.  Free audios and my
   summaries of all previous talks are available for download [2]here (or
   stay up to date with the Podcast [3]here).  The summaries join other
   long-term thinking items on our [4]Blog ([5]RSS).  If you would like
   to be notified by email of forthcoming talks, go [6]here to sign up
   online.  Any questions, contact Danielle Engelman at Long Now---
   415-561-6582 x1, [7]danielle at longnow.org.

   You are welcome to forward this note to anyone you think might be
   interested.

                                           --Stewart Brand

--

   Stewart Brand -- sb at gbn.org

   The Long Now Foundation - http://www.longnow.org
   Seminars & downloads: http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/

References

   1. https://secure.longnow.org/members/
   2. http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/
   3. http://www.longnow.org/projects/seminars/podcast.php
   4. http://blog.longnow.org/
   5. http://feeds.feedburner.com/longnowblog
   6. http://list.longnow.org/mailman/listinfo/SALT
   7. mailto:danielle at longnow.org

----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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