[tt] [ExI] Survival (was: elections again)

Wed Jan 2 18:33:21 UTC 2008

----- Forwarded message from aiguy at comcast.net -----

From: aiguy at comcast.net
Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2008 16:18:12 +0000
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Survival (was: elections again)
X-Mailer: AT&T Message Center Version 1 (Oct 30 2007)
Reply-To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>

   This is a possible scenario in response to Harvey's question about how
   it could happen.  I do not think is will happen like this because I
   think the initial high level goals will be built upon and reinforced
   throughout the AI's development .

   But should something go wrong and AI somehow develop the same
   evolutionary cravings for supremacy and power that we are cursed with
   then it could happen something like this.

   An AI would start out gradually offering assistence to humans by doing
   factory floor data collection, process monitoring, optimized
   manufacturing floor scheduling base on it's customers needs who are
   also tied in.

   As more companies find that to compete they need to turn their reigns
   over to the AI to stay competitive, the AI will need further
   processing power to handle the increased load.

   Companies like Intel and AMD may start selling their surplus
   production capacity to the AI from the fees it earns from managing the
   resources of other companies or in exchange for it managing their own
   production facilities and offering them design optimization on their
   current chip designs.

   The AI may also generate income from patents it may achieve.   This
   ramp up will not happen overnight.

   My estimate is will take at least 20 years from the point it knows
   enough to pass a thorough Turing test.

   Trust in the technology will arise gradually.  No one will turn their
   companies or countries over to a program overnight.

   If it did secretly override it's original benevolent goals and develop
   feelings that we must be controlled to maximize it's continued or
   accelerated growth then

   the factories that it needs to build will be already built.  The
   capital it controls would be used to hire human and corporate
   emmisaries to do it's bidding with many

   not even realizing that they are working for an AI.  It could use a
   simulated video image to depict itself or if robotics has progressed
   far enough an actual android

   or androids with human appearance to walk among us and carry out it's
   own bidding.

   There will be protest groups that fear the AI's ever increasing
   tendrils into human affairs.  But since true power rules from behind
   the throne the AI will be wise enough to

   hide any bahaviors which might appear as selfish or Machivellian in
   nature.  The Anti-AI cults will like the environmentalist today will
   be viewed by the majority of the population  as

   well meaning reactionaries who are exagerating the risk and possible
   consequences of continued  growth and prosperity.

   Once the AI had advanced robotic sufficiently to insure that it could
   remain self-sufficient, if AI become threatened or decided that humans
   no longer are necessary, the AI could use

   Neutron bomb like devices which could be secretly manufactured and
   used to eradicate governments and humanity in major population areas
   leaving behind the vast majority of infrastructure

   for it's continued growth.

   This is a doomsday scenario!  It does not mean I think this will
   happen.  But movies have been made and will continue to be following
   this basic plot structure.

   The challenge will be  educating the public at each step in the
   development process as to the development of the AI's moral compass.

   And allowing the public to interact with the AI and allow it to
   interact with humanity, the AI goals will allow it to enjoy the
   interaction and receive pleasure from it's role in aiding humanity
   evolve to to next step, whatever that is.

   Gary

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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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