[tt] NewSpace Review for 2007
Bryan Bishop
<kanzure at gmail.com> on
Wed Jan 2 16:30:19 UTC 2008
The HTML version has lots of links to news articles:
http://www.hobbyspace.com/AAdmin/archive/SpecialTopics/Events/2007/Review-2007.html
HobbySpace.com Special Report
NewSpace in 2007
Ups and Downs in entrepreneurial spaceflight
December 31, 2007
Genesis II went into orbit on June 28, 2007.
I present here a compilation of major news and events in NewSpace during
the year 2007. Most of the list came from postings on my Space
Transport News blog, which had over 2000 entries in 2007. It's a
subjective list, of course, and I surely left out some items that
others might think should be included.
There were many positive developments during 2007 but also a number of
disappointments and setbacks. Overall there was a net positive step
upwards and the year sets the stage for even bigger steps to be made in
the next couple of years.
The primary goals of NewSpace are to bring about significantly lower
cost access to space and to involve a much larger segment of society in
space activities. These goals came a bit closer in 2007 but are still
not quite within reach. This posting - Slow revolutions ... - Space
Transport News - June.23.07 - summarizes how I view the process that is
happening with entrepreneurial spaceflight.
To make some sense of the great number of entries, I've partitioned the
review into the following categories.
Access to space
NewSpace in Orbit
New entrepreneurial spaceflight businesses
Space tourism
Space prizes
Finances for NewSpace ventures
Infrastructure (propulsion, space suits, etc.)
Spaceports
For each category, I split the entries into Ups and Downs according to
whether the events represented positive or negative steps towards
NewSpace goals.
Access to Space
Armadillo Aerospace's Mod vehicle comes in for a landing on the first
leg of its first attempt at
the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge prize at the X PRIZE Cup on
Oct.27, 2007.
See X PRIZE Cup 2007 review.
Downs:
By far, the worst event for NewSpace in 2007 was the tragedy in Mojave
on July 26th when the Scaled Composites engine test stand exploded and
killed Glen May, Eric Blackwell, and Todd Ivens. The exact cause of the
accident was not immediately known (there was no engine firing at the
time). For details, see the many Space Transport News postings in July
about the accident. A safety panel report is expected to be released in
early 2008. The accident will delay the SpaceShipTwo program by up to a
year.
Fuel sloshing in the second stage prevented the SpaceX Falcon 1 from
putting a dummy payload into orbit on its second test flight.
Armadillo Aerospace failed to win either level 1 or 2 of the Lunar
Lander Challenge (LLC) due to ignition problems with their engines.
None of the other 9 teams that signed up for the LLC made it to the
competition.
Rocketplane Kistler (RpK) failed to attract sufficient investment to
meet its COTS milestones and its agreement with NASA was terminated.
Congress cut funding for the COTS ISS resupply program for 2008 and
placed restrictions on the the second round competition that would use
money made available by the RpK agreement cancellation.
Delays for most of the "land, refuel and fly" types of suborbital
spaceflight projects and only Blue Origin and Armadillo had untethered
rocket-powered test flights (as far as we know).
Bigelow Aerospace has not yet been able to arrange transportation to the
Sundancer for crew visits after it launches in 2010.
Falcon 9 first stage firing tests began in the autumn in Texas.
Ups:
Before its second test flight, the Falcon 1 had an amazingly fast one
hour turnaround after a hot fire abort. This is exactly the sort of
operational robustness that must be achieved with rocket
technologyAccess to Space
Armadillo Aerospace's Mod vehicle comes in for a landing on the first
leg of its first attempt at
the Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge prize at the X PRIZE Cup on
Oct.27, 2007.
See X PRIZE Cup 2007 review.
Downs:
By far, the worst event for NewSpace in 2007 was the tragedy in Mojave
on July 26th when the Scaled Composites engine test stand exploded and
killed Glen May, Eric Blackwell, and Todd Ivens. The exact cause of the
accident was not immediately known (there was no engine firing at the
time). For details, see the many Space Transport News postings in July
about the accident. A safety panel report is expected to be released in
early 2008. The accident will delay the SpaceShipTwo program by up to a
year.
Fuel sloshing in the second stage prevented the SpaceX Falcon 1 from
putting a dummy payload into orbit on its second test flight.
Armadillo Aerospace failed to win either level 1 or 2 of the Lunar
Lander Challenge (LLC) due to ignition problems with their engines.
None of the other 9 teams that signed up for the LLC made it to the
competition.
Rocketplane Kistler (RpK) failed to attract sufficient investment to
meet its COTS milestones and its agreement with NASA was terminated.
Congress cut funding for the COTS ISS resupply program for 2008 and
placed restrictions on the the second round competition that would use
money made available by the RpK agreement cancellation.
Delays for most of the "land, refuel and fly" types of suborbital
spaceflight projects and only Blue Origin and Armadillo had untethered
rocket-powered test flights (as far as we know).
Bigelow Aerospace has not yet been able to arrange transportation to the
Sundancer for crew visits after it launches in 2010.
Falcon 9 first stage firing tests began in the autumn in Texas.
Ups:
Before its second test flight, the Falcon 1 had an amazingly fast one
hour turnaround after a hot fire abort. This is exactly the sort of
operational robustness that must be achieved with rocket technology
before we can obtain low cost access to space.
Falcon 9 passed a major design review and the first stage firing tests
began. A new Merlin engine was developed. Dragon capsule also passed a
design review.
Armadillo Aerospace carried out dozens of tethered and untethered flight
tests at the Oklahoma spaceport, including a full LLC Level 2 flight
sequence.
Armadillo announced the development of the modular vehicle concept.
Modules can be combined to achieve high altitudes. Armadillo built and
flew Mod within a couple of months.
Armadillo got an Air Force SBIR grant for vehicle development.
Several of the LLC teams made good progress even though they weren't
ready for the X Prize Cup in October. Some of them should begin test
flights in early 2008.
Blue Origin flew Goddard twice untethered in 2007. Unknown if they did
tethered flights.
Blue Origin began construction of a second vehicle that should go to
high altitudes.
New COTS round attracted several impressive proposals for ISS resupply
systems. Some of the teams included collaborations of new and old space
firms. Assuming funding cutbacks and restrictions are worked out, the
program should initiate at least one new low cost space access project.
AirLaunch LLC continued to progress under its DARPA grants towards an
orbital test.
XCOR received Air Force money to develop a high altitude (200k ft)
vehicle.
XCOR began flying the first Rocket Racer, which uses an engine with a
piston pump. XCOR will use similar engines for their high altitude
vehicles.
ARCA Space began flight tests of its balloon launched suborbital
spaceflight system.
A Japanese suborbital RLV project was announced that would continue the
work started with the RVT reusable test vehicle. See also this posting
from the ISPS.
Several small companies such as Masten Space, TGV Rockets, etc.,
continued to make progress with their vehicle projects during 2007.
Giant EADS Astrium unveiled the design of a rocketplane for the space
tourism market. It is seeking over 1 billion Euros of investment to
initiate development of the vehicle.
Bigelow announced a study with Lockheed-Martin to investigate use of the
Atlas V 401 to send crew and cargo to their habitats. (Lockheed-Martin
had presented studies at a conference that dealt with manned flights
with the Atlas V.)
NewSpace in Orbit
Genesis II was launched into orbit on June 28, 2007 by a Russian Dnepr
rocket.
Ups:
Bigelow Aerospace's Genesis II made it to orbit and it and Genesis I
continue to work well.
Bigelow announced they would skip the launch of the intermediate Galaxy
module and instead move directly to a launch the crew capable Sundancer
in 2010. See the ambitious plan that he laid out at the Space
Foundation symposium in April. See also this announcement in August and
this plan to support capsule development.
Several university and other small organizations around the world
launched a number of low cost nanosats (e.g. Cubesat based) into orbit
in 2007.
Downs:
No other entrepreneurial NewSpace style company has gotten a major
payload to orbit yet.
Entrepreneurial Space/Rocket Related Businesses
Image: Aerospace Services Group
UP Aerospace launched a Spaceloft XL vehicle on April 28, 2007 with a
flight manifest
that included a diversity of items from commercial and educational
organizations.
Ups:
UP Aerospace had a successful public suborbital space flight with
commercial payloads. These included products intended for retail, such
as space related collectables, that would use the cachet of having
actually gone to space and back as a selling point. An innovative
marketing idea came from Microgravity Enterprises, Inc., which launched
ingredients to its Space2O water and Antimatter energy drinks.
UP Aerospace also had a successful low altitude rocket flight to test
equipment for an unnamed client. They believe this sort of component
testing service will provide a significant market for them. (Armadillo
also had companies talking to it about a similar service.)
Celestis/Space Services space burial company flew cremated remains on
the UP Aerospace flight and has payloads ready for future orbital and
suborbital flights. They see a large market for this service and need
more frequent access to space on low cost vehicles within the US
(friends and relatives of the deceased want to observe the launches).
ZERO-G seems to be doing well. They now fly from both KSC and Las Vegas.
A flight with Stephen Hawking attracted lots of publicity.
Northrop-Grumman continued sponsoring flights with science teachers.
The Rocket Racing League announced it now has a full compliment of
teams, First X-Racer began test flights, and exhibition events should
start in 2008. First actual race in late 2008 or early 2009.
Downs:
Only one UP Aerospace flight to space.
Rocket Racing didn't start exhibition events in 2007.
No big breakout new space business emerged that could prove to investors
that this is a good area to put their money.
Space Tourism
Charles Simonyi enters the ISS.
Ups:
Space Adventures sent Charles Simonyi to the ISS and announced that
Richard Garriott will go next year. Space Adventures says they have a
queue for ISS flights for the next several years.
Virgin Galactic has over 200 people who have paid deposits or full
ticket prices for SS2 flights. Virgin Galactic detected no effect from
the Scaled accident on sign up rates for SS2 flights.
Virginia passed legislation to protect space tourist firms from lawsuits
for accidents.
Downs:
Russian space agency says that after 2009 it will not have enough
flights for space tourists due to the need to deliver the ISS crews
(which will grow to 6).
The Scaled accident delayed SS2 development from 2009 to 2010.
Other suborbital space tourism firms indicated delays, which means there
will probably be no test flights to 100km in 2008.
Space Prizes
Ups:
Space glove Centennial Challenge was won by Peter Homer (he was later
hired by Orbital Outfitters).
Centennial Challenge competition events were held for space glove, lunar
regolith excavation, lunar landers, power beaming, and tether strength.
$30M Google Lunar Prize announced.
So far, one team, Odyssey Moon, has officially signed up so far.
Another credible team led by Red Whittaker, who led the winning team for
the DARPA robot urban driving contest, will sign up soon and promises
to fly by July 2009.
A push began in Virginia to organized the V-prize for a point-to-point
suborbital flight demonstration from Virginia to a European site.
Downs:
Besides the space glove, no other Centennial Challenge space competition
was won. (The Personal Air Vehicle CC did award out prize money.)
Congress has refused to allocate additional money for Centennial
Challenge so that competitions for additional technologies can be
opened.
Finance
Ups:
Several meetings dedicated to the subject of investment for
entrepreneurial space were held during 2007. These included not just
NewSpace people but were also attended by financial people from outside
the NewSpace community. See this posting on the Space Investment Summit
held in New York City in April. See also spaceinvestmentsummit.com.
Most of the general meetings (e.g. ISDC, Space Frontier, Space
Access'07, ISPS, etc.) included many space investment sessions and
panels. (Also, insurance and regulatory issues were high on the
agenda.)
An angel investment group put money into XCOR.
Bigelow announced that he will offer a $765M contract to any company
that can provide 8 launches to his manned habitats.
Bigelow and Space Florida discuss the creation of a COTS like investment
fund to promote lower cost space transport.
Some of the mainstream companies began collaborating with NewSpace style
companies, e.g.
Lockheed-Martin with Bigelow
ATK with XCOR
LM, ATK with several COTS competitors.
SpaceDev, Ecliptic Enterprises, and several other NewSpace style
companies continued to make money and grow their businesses.
Downs:
RpK could not raise $500M for its COTS project.
No new major angel investor like Bigelow or Bezos entered the field (as
far as we know).
No major movement of venture capital or institutional money into
NewSpace.
Infrastructure
Orbital Outfitters introduces their first spacesuit at the X PRIZE Cup
2007.
Ups:
Orbital Outfitters unveiled its first flight suit intended for
commercial suborbital spaceflight operators.
Commercial spaceflight training is developing into a real business for
companies like the National Aerospace Training & Research (NASTAR)
Center. Virgin Galactic's passengers have started experiencing 6Gs in
their centrifuge, which is the level they would experience during
reentry on the SS2.
XCOR annnounced development of new engines, including a LOX/Methane
engine with ATK, and the success of its piston pump program.
Orion Propulsion and C&Space (South Korea) made progress with their
LOX/Methane engines. (Aerojet and Northrop-Grumman also announced
methane engine projects.)
TGV Rockets announced development of a new engine and a testing program
at NASA Stennis.
SpaceX completed development of its upgraded Merlin 1C engine.
Two tether tests in 2007 - YES2 and MAST - both were partial successes.
Downs:
Still no sign that a NewSpace rocket vehicle company could build a
vehicle using engines, structures, etc. obtained from low cost NewSpace
suppliers. Most of the entrepreneurial launcher companies are still
doing in house development to obtain most of their major components,
especially engines.
Spaceports
Winning design for Spaceport America near Las Cruces, New Mexico
Ups:
The voters of Donña Ana County, New Mexico passed the spaceport tax
referendum.
An elegant design from Foster/URS selected for the NM Spaceport was
selected.
Virginia spaceflight liability and immunity legislation was enacted.
Armadillo carried out frequent test flights at the Oklahoma spaceport.
SpaceX took over SLC 40 at KSC.
Development of Spaceport Sweden near Kiruna was announced. Virgin
Galactic expects to start flying the SS2 there in 2012.
The Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport had a successful launch of an
Orbital Sciences Minotaur I.
Downs:
The New Mexico spaceport authority first executive director died and
then his replacement resigned a few months later.
Appears that the ground breaking for the NM spaceport at end of 2008 at
earliest.
Mojave spaceport had a safety dispute with FAA, though this was settled
late in December. before we can obtain low cost access to space.
Falcon 9 passed a major design review and the first stage firing tests
began. A new Merlin engine was developed. Dragon capsule also passed a
design review.
Armadillo Aerospace carried out dozens of tethered and untethered flight
tests at the Oklahoma spaceport, including a full LLC Level 2 flight
sequence.
Armadillo announced the development of the modular vehicle concept.
Modules can be combined to achieve high altitudes. Armadillo built and
flew Mod within a couple of months.
Armadillo got an Air Force SBIR grant for vehicle development.
Several of the LLC teams made good progress even though they weren't
ready for the X Prize Cup in October. Some of them should begin test
flights in early 2008.
Blue Origin flew Goddard twice untethered in 2007. Unknown if they did
tethered flights.
Blue Origin began construction of a second vehicle that should go to
high altitudes.
New COTS round attracted several impressive proposals for ISS resupply
systems. Some of the teams included collaborations of new and old space
firms. Assuming funding cutbacks and restrictions are worked out, the
program should initiate at least one new low cost space access project.
AirLaunch LLC continued to progress under its DARPA grants towards an
orbital test.
XCOR received Air Force money to develop a high altitude (200k ft)
vehicle.
XCOR began flying the first Rocket Racer, which uses an engine with a
piston pump. XCOR will use similar engines for their high altitude
vehicles.
ARCA Space began flight tests of its balloon launched suborbital
spaceflight system.
A Japanese suborbital RLV project was announced that would continue the
work started with the RVT reusable test vehicle. See also this posting
from the ISPS.
Several small companies such as Masten Space, TGV Rockets, etc.,
continued to make progress with their vehicle projects during 2007.
Giant EADS Astrium unveiled the design of a rocketplane for the space
tourism market. It is seeking over 1 billion Euros of investment to
initiate development of the vehicle.
Bigelow announced a study with Lockheed-Martin to investigate use of the
Atlas V 401 to send crew and cargo to their habitats. (Lockheed-Martin
had presented studies at a conference that dealt with manned flights
with the Atlas V.)
NewSpace in Orbit
Genesis II was launched into orbit on June 28, 2007 by a Russian Dnepr
rocket.
Ups:
Bigelow Aerospace's Genesis II made it to orbit and it and Genesis I
continue to work well.
Bigelow announced they would skip the launch of the intermediate Galaxy
module and instead move directly to a launch the crew capable Sundancer
in 2010. See the ambitious plan that he laid out at the Space
Foundation symposium in April. See also this announcement in August and
this plan to support capsule development.
Several university and other small organizations around the world
launched a number of low cost nanosats (e.g. Cubesat based) into orbit
in 2007.
Downs:
No other entrepreneurial NewSpace style company has gotten a major
payload to orbit yet.
Entrepreneurial Space/Rocket Related Businesses
Image: Aerospace Services Group
UP Aerospace launched a Spaceloft XL vehicle on April 28, 2007 with a
flight manifest
that included a diversity of items from commercial and educational
organizations.
Ups:
UP Aerospace had a successful public suborbital space flight with
commercial payloads. These included products intended for retail, such
as space related collectables, that would use the cachet of having
actually gone to space and back as a selling point. An innovative
marketing idea came from Microgravity Enterprises, Inc., which launched
ingredients to its Space2O water and Antimatter energy drinks.
UP Aerospace also had a successful low altitude rocket flight to test
equipment for an unnamed client. They believe this sort of component
testing service will provide a significant market for them. (Armadillo
also had companies talking to it about a similar service.)
Celestis/Space Services space burial company flew cremated remains on
the UP Aerospace flight and has payloads ready for future orbital and
suborbital flights. They see a large market for this service and need
more frequent access to space on low cost vehicles within the US
(friends and relatives of the deceased want to observe the launches).
ZERO-G seems to be doing well. They now fly from both KSC and Las Vegas.
A flight with Stephen Hawking attracted lots of publicity.
Northrop-Grumman continued sponsoring flights with science teachers.
The Rocket Racing League announced it now has a full compliment of
teams, First X-Racer began test flights, and exhibition events should
start in 2008. First actual race in late 2008 or early 2009.
Downs:
Only one UP Aerospace flight to space.
Rocket Racing didn't start exhibition events in 2007.
No big breakout new space business emerged that could prove to investors
that this is a good area to put their money.
Space Tourism
Charles Simonyi enters the ISS.
Ups:
Space Adventures sent Charles Simonyi to the ISS and announced that
Richard Garriott will go next year. Space Adventures says they have a
queue for ISS flights for the next several years.
Virgin Galactic has over 200 people who have paid deposits or full
ticket prices for SS2 flights. Virgin Galactic detected no effect from
the Scaled accident on sign up rates for SS2 flights.
Virginia passed legislation to protect space tourist firms from lawsuits
for accidents.
Downs:
Russian space agency says that after 2009 it will not have enough
flights for space tourists due to the need to deliver the ISS crews
(which will grow to 6).
The Scaled accident delayed SS2 development from 2009 to 2010.
Other suborbital space tourism firms indicated delays, which means there
will probably be no test flights to 100km in 2008.
Space Prizes
Ups:
Space glove Centennial Challenge was won by Peter Homer (he was later
hired by Orbital Outfitters).
Centennial Challenge competition events were held for space glove, lunar
regolith excavation, lunar landers, power beaming, and tether strength.
$30M Google Lunar Prize announced.
So far, one team, Odyssey Moon, has officially signed up so far.
Another credible team led by Red Whittaker, who led the winning team for
the DARPA robot urban driving contest, will sign up soon and promises
to fly by July 2009.
A push began in Virginia to organized the V-prize for a point-to-point
suborbital flight demonstration from Virginia to a European site.
Downs:
Besides the space glove, no other Centennial Challenge space competition
was won. (The Personal Air Vehicle CC did award out prize money.)
Congress has refused to allocate additional money for Centennial
Challenge so that competitions for additional technologies can be
opened.
Finance
Ups:
Several meetings dedicated to the subject of investment for
entrepreneurial space were held during 2007. These included not just
NewSpace people but were also attended by financial people from outside
the NewSpace community. See this posting on the Space Investment Summit
held in New York City in April. See also spaceinvestmentsummit.com.
Most of the general meetings (e.g. ISDC, Space Frontier, Space
Access'07, ISPS, etc.) included many space investment sessions and
panels. (Also, insurance and regulatory issues were high on the
agenda.)
An angel investment group put money into XCOR.
Bigelow announced that he will offer a $765M contract to any company
that can provide 8 launches to his manned habitats.
Bigelow and Space Florida discuss the creation of a COTS like investment
fund to promote lower cost space transport.
Some of the mainstream companies began collaborating with NewSpace style
companies, e.g.
Lockheed-Martin with Bigelow
ATK with XCOR
LM, ATK with several COTS competitors.
SpaceDev, Ecliptic Enterprises, and several other NewSpace style
companies continued to make money and grow their businesses.
Downs:
RpK could not raise $500M for its COTS project.
No new major angel investor like Bigelow or Bezos entered the field (as
far as we know).
No major movement of venture capital or institutional money into
NewSpace.
Infrastructure
Orbital Outfitters introduces their first spacesuit at the X PRIZE Cup
2007.
Ups:
Orbital Outfitters unveiled its first flight suit intended for
commercial suborbital spaceflight operators.
Commercial spaceflight training is developing into a real business for
companies like the National Aerospace Training & Research (NASTAR)
Center. Virgin Galactic's passengers have started experiencing 6Gs in
their centrifuge, which is the level they would experience during
reentry on the SS2.
XCOR annnounced development of new engines, including a LOX/Methane
engine with ATK, and the success of its piston pump program.
Orion Propulsion and C&Space (South Korea) made progress with their
LOX/Methane engines. (Aerojet and Northrop-Grumman also announced
methane engine projects.)
TGV Rockets announced development of a new engine and a testing program
at NASA Stennis.
SpaceX completed development of its upgraded Merlin 1C engine.
Two tether tests in 2007 - YES2 and MAST - both were partial successes.
Downs:
Still no sign that a NewSpace rocket vehicle company could build a
vehicle using engines, structures, etc. obtained from low cost NewSpace
suppliers. Most of the entrepreneurial launcher companies are still
doing in house development to obtain most of their major components,
especially engines.
Spaceports
Winning design for Spaceport America near Las Cruces, New Mexico
Ups:
The voters of Donña Ana County, New Mexico passed the spaceport tax
referendum.
An elegant design from Foster/URS selected for the NM Spaceport was
selected.
Virginia spaceflight liability and immunity legislation was enacted.
Armadillo carried out frequent test flights at the Oklahoma spaceport.
SpaceX took over SLC 40 at KSC.
Development of Spaceport Sweden near Kiruna was announced. Virgin
Galactic expects to start flying the SS2 there in 2012.
The Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport had a successful launch of an
Orbital Sciences Minotaur I.
Downs:
The New Mexico spaceport authority first executive director died and
then his replacement resigned a few months later.
Appears that the ground breaking for the NM spaceport at end of 2008 at
earliest.
Mojave spaceport had a safety dispute with FAA, though this was settled
late in December.
- Bryan
________________________________________
Bryan Bishop
http://heybryan.org/
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