[tt] NYT: Internet-Era Magazine Is Revived to Look at the Future

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Internet-Era Magazine Is Revived to Look at the Future
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/technology/04standard.html

By BRAD STONE

SAN FRANCISCO -- One of the signature publications of the first
dot-com boom is being reincarnated.

On Monday, International Data Group, the trade magazine publisher
based in Framingham, Mass., will restart The Industry Standard as
an online-only technology news site with a twist: readers will be
asked to wager virtual money on whether various anticipated news
developments and business deals in high-tech are likely to
happen.

So-called prediction markets are seen as a way to use the wisdom
of crowds to forecast future events, such as who will win the
presidential election or the Super Bowl. On sites like the
Hollywood Stock Exchange (www.hsx.com), NewsFutures
(www.newsfutures.com) and TradeSports (www.tradesports.com),
people can bet on the outcomes of films, news and sporting
events. The new Industry Standard will extend that model to news
about the Internet at www.thestandard.com.

The Industry Standard is a familiar brand to most people in
high-tech. Ten years ago, I.D.G. began it as a weekly magazine
based in San Francisco.

It became known as much for embodying the initial wave of dot-com
hyperbole as for reporting on it: the magazine grew thick with
ads from Internet companies and held industry conferences and
rooftop networking parties before ad pages and subscriptions
withered in the Internet bust.

Its parent company, Standard Media International, sought
bankruptcy protection from creditors in August 2001. I.D.G., a
major investor in the company, acquired many of its remaining
assets, including the Web site and brand name.

Then for six years, I.D.G. did nothing with it.

"It was pretty dormant for the most part," said Derek Butcher,
vice president and general manager of the new Industry Standard.
"But recently, we started thinking that there seemed to be a lot
of equity left in the brand. People seemed to have a lot of love
and respect for it," he said.

The site, which goes live on Monday, will feature short
contributions on a variety of high-tech topics from freelance
writers, who will be paid around $300 a post.

But the centerpiece of the new site is the predictive market.
When people register for the site, they will receive 100,000
"Standard Dollars," which they can use to wager on such
propositions as "another company will emerge as a suitor for
Yahoo" or "TiVo will be bought by the end of the year."

The listings, which can be suggested by readers but must be
approved by The Standard's editors, will each have associated
odds. If the chances are 50 percent that "Google and Dell will
team up to make a mobile phone" and it actually happens, a reader
would double his money.

Standard Dollars can be exchanged for prizes but will probably be
used on the site as a symbol of a person's reputation for
success, Mr. Butcher said.

Prediction markets have been evangelized in the writings of
Thomas W. Malone, a professor at the Sloan School of Management
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who is advising
I.D.G.

Professor Malone says prediction markets can tap into the hidden
wisdom of crowds, drawing out expertise and insider knowledge.

Google and Microsoft use prediction markets to bet not only on
industry events but also on whether a certain product might be
shipped on time, Professor Malone said. The results of the
betting, he said, often reveal internal problems that managers
may not know about.

"Prediction markets provide a way of integrating information from
many different people very quickly and effectively," Professor
Malone said. "That is one reason to believe the kind of thing The
Industry Standard is doing is a harbinger of something that is
going to be much more common in the future."