[tt] Next Big Future - 5 new articles

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> on Wed Aug 27 06:48:18 UTC 2008

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Subject: Next Big Future - 5 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 5 new articles

    1. [3]Breakthrough digital video camera to replace 35mm film
    2. [4]Ziggurat Dubai a Buildable City Pyramid
    3. [5]100% Efficient Fullerene Production and Anticipated
       Breakthroughs
    4. [6]IBM Develops Electric Control of Light from Carbon Nanotubes
    5. [7]Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel, indicates Singularity by 2050 and
       advanced Claytronics
    6. [8]More Recent Articles
    7. [9]Search Next Big Future

[10]Breakthrough digital video camera to replace 35mm film

   [11]Hi-res digital camera can match 35 mm film at a fraction of the
   price.
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   [18]See the Red digital cinema camera company site for the Red One and
   other cameras.
   The new camera has 4,096(h) x 2,304(v) of resolution and will only
   cost $17,500. A Panavision Millennium XL-2 35 mm video camera costs
   $25,000 per month to rent. A Sony F23 digital video camera with 2000 X
   1080 resolution costs $150,000.
   [19]The camera can output in realtime like other DV cameras.(wikipedia
   has a very informative entry
   They have a 3K digital camera Scarlet with an under $3,000 price point
   that should be available in 2009. This is the price of current
   1000X1000 pixel video cameras. It is 50 times cheaper than 2,000 X
   1080 pixel digital video cameras now. The 3,000 line camera will bust
   open high quality movie production to legions of amateurs.
   
     The Red One is being used on at least 40 features. Steven
     Soderbergh, the Oscar-winning director, borrowed two prototypes to
     shoot his Che Guevara biopics, which premiered at the Cannes Film
     Festival in May, and later purchased three for his film The
     Informant. Peter Jackson, the Lord of the Rings himself, bought
     four. Director Doug Liman used a Red on Jumper. Peter Hyams used
     one on his upcoming Beyond a Reasonable Doubt. Digital cinema
     that's all but indistinguishable from film is finally coming to a
     theater near you.

     Jim Jannard, 59, is the billionaire founder of Red. In 1975 he
     spent $300 to make a batch of custom motocross handlebar grips,
     which he sold from the back of a van. He named his company Oakley,
     after his English setter, and eventually expanded into sci-fi-style
     sunglasses, bags, and shoes. In November of last year he sold the
     business to Luxottica, the owner of Ray-Ban, for a reported $2.1
     billion.

     Analog projection seems to be on the way out. In March, four big
     Hollywood studios announced plans to retrofit 10,000 screens--about
     a quarter of the US total--for digital projection at 2K. Movies
     shot with Red's 4K camera will look every bit as good as those shot
     on film, and they'll all be ads for the company's next camera, the
     Epic, with more than 5,000 lines of resolution.

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[37]Ziggurat Dubai a Buildable City Pyramid

   [38]There was a 4000 meter tall pyramid city called X-Seed 4000 which
   was designed but was never meant to be built.
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   [45]Now there is a 1200 meter tall, 2.3 square kilometer
   environmentally friendly building being proposed in Dubai.
   - Transport throughout the complex would be connected by an integrated
   360 degree network (horizontally and vertically). Elevator cars that
   go up down and sideways.
   - It could house one million people and be provide for all their food,
   water and energy needs inside the structure
   - It would use 10% of land surface that a normal one million person
   city would need
   [46]Mile high buildings are being seriously proposed in the middle
   east.
   [47]Many new skyscrapers and [48]megaprojects (man made islands and
   more) are being developed in Dubai. Dubai is the place where this
   project has the best chance of being funded and developed.
   
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[66]100% Efficient Fullerene Production and Anticipated Breakthroughs

   [67]Researchers have now discovered a method that produces the bucky
   ball configuration of carbon with nearly 100% conversion efficiency
   from precursor materials. 
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     Getting high efficiencies means that you don't have to sift through
     the reaction product and separate what you wanted--not a small
     challenge when you're sorting billions of particles with nanometer
     dimensions. The relatively low temperatures--750K in this
     case--also make for cheaper production and, even though platinum is
     expensive.

   What are the best breakthroughs that could be here soon ?
   Cheap, full strength, industrial quantities of carbon nanotubes.
   [74]Full strength carbon nanotubes have been made and irradiation has
   been found to repair some defects.
   [75]MIT and Darpa appear close to making carbon nanotubes that are one
   meter long.
   Currently only a few hundred tons of carbon nanotubes are produced in
   factories. Current plans are to get to a few thousands of tons in the
   2012-2015 timeframe. Some breakthroughs could allow the expected
   volume of carbon fiber 100,000/year tons in 2015 to be producing
   carbon nanotubes. The world produces over one billion tons per year of
   steel and 2.5 billion tons of concrete. For carbon nanotubes to be
   used as a major part of all cars, planes and space vehicles, the
   production level needs to get up to 10 to 100 million tons/year. The
   production level can be less than steel and concrete because carbon
   nanotubes are stronger and lighter so less would be needed. Also for
   many applications the carbon nanotubes can just add strength or
   improve characteristics of plastic.
   Cheap and plentiful Graphene
   [76]Graphene is another material that could contribute to
   revolutionizing the properties of what is built.
   Graphene and carbon nanotube electronics
   [77]Carbon nanotubes could enable optical computing.
   [78]Hybrid optical and electronic computing is also making
   breakthroughs
   [79]Onchip photonic communications is one of the keys to enabling
   energy efficient exaflop and zettaflop computers that are one million
   times faster than the best existing supercomputers.
   6 zettaflops is the limit of a 5 MW supercomputer based on a planned
   beyond CMOS architecture. 6 petaflops if the limit of an advanced 5W
   mobile system.
   [80]Specialized computers can bring 100 to 1000 times better
   performance years sooner.
   [81]New architectures and approaches could lead to a breakthrough in
   three dimensional molecular computing.
   [82]Adiabatic quantum computers could see commercialization and
   performance breakthroughs this year and in 2009 from Dwave Systems.
   The Dwave systems quantum computer design currently cannot run
   [83]Grover's search algorithm better than classical computers.
   Breakthroughs with improved versions of quantum computers (refinement
   of Dwave systems or trapped ion quantum computers or other versions)
   or improved algorithms could enable superior quantum computer
   performance.
   [84]A Quantum computer system with vastly superior performance could
   be leveraged to created automatic programming systems. Such a system
   would use a declarative language that allows us to program by
   specifying only what a solution looks like, with automatic conversion
   to some canonical solver language that uses the superior quantum
   computer speed to generate solutions.
   Nuclear Fusion
                     Time to Small     Cost to Achieve  Large scale chance
Concept Description  Scale net energy  Net Energy       after small success Fun
ded?

Bussard IEC Fusion    3-5 years        $200 million     90%                 Y,
$2m
[85]My intro to Bussard fusion and update on prototype work

[86]Recent test results could be announced in one to two months and seem likely
 to be positive  and could

lead to a 100 MW positive energy system as a next step.
As noted above the ideal situation is to scale the system to a commercializable
 prototype in 3 years.

[87]Success would mean radically improved space propulsion.

[88]This one of ten other radical improvements in space travel and access which
 are possible in the near term.

.


Plasma Focus          6 years          $1M+ Sales X-scan  80%             Y, $1
.9m
[89]Focus fusion website
[90]Focus fusion US patent application
[91]Working on a funded experiment with Chile 2006-2010
.

Tri-alpha Energy aka  8 years          $75 million      60%                 Y,
$50m
Colliding Beam fusion aka
Field Reversed Configuration
[92]My review of the academic research before the funded stealth project
.

General Fusion aka    3-6 years        $10-30 million   60%                 Y,
$2m
Magnetized target fusion
[93]Steam generated shock wave into spinning liquid metal
.

   Potential Great [Peak oil crushing] but Less than Fusion Energy
   Breakthroughs
   [94]Factory mass produced uranium hydride reactors that burn uranium
   at 10-12 time higher efficiency.
   [95]China could also factory mass produce high temperature reactors
   [96]MIT and Westinghouse should commercialize a 50% power uprate of
   existing nuclear reactors.
   Biofuel breakthroughs
   [97]Various types of algae and microbe biofuel production
   [98]Genetically engineered seaweed for biofuels and extraction of
   uranium from seawater.
   Stem Cell Breakthroughs
   [99]Stem cells seem likely to enable unlimited disease free blood
   supply and could enable radical life extension and regeneration.
   Radical Life Extension
   [100]Various aspects of the Strategies for Engineered Negligible
   Senescence (SENS) and related work for life extension are making
   progress such rejuvenation of organs and cells, [101]vaccines against
   Alzheimers, [102]cancer cures and [103]caloric restriction mimicking
   medicine.
   Human cognitive, performance enhancement and intelligence
   amplification
   [104]Genetic engineering breakthroughs could radically increase
   cognition, health, longevity and physical performance.
   If the whole population's IQ by just 3 points, you would reduce
   poverty by 25%, you would reduce welfare recipiency by 18%, the number
   of males in jail by 25%, the number of parentless children by 20%. If
   that trend held, then an increase of 9 points, would be 95% reduction
   of poverty, 64% reduction in welfare, 95% reduction in males in jail
   and 73% reduction in parentless children.
   People have estimated that an increase of 1 IQ point leads to a nearly
   2% increase in income, and for the US economy, an increase per IQ
   point across the population, results in a $250 billion increase in
   GDP. A 10 point increase would be 21% increase in income or 2.8
   trillion increase based on current GDP. Worldwide this would be a 12
   trillion dollar increase. A 40 point across the board IQ increase
   would be 48% higher GDP and an 80 point increase would be a 120%
   increase.
   [105]IQs have appeared to be rising at 3 points per decade through the
   20th century. The causes were believed to be better health, nutrition
   and education.
   Breakthroughs in education/training and cognitive enhancement could
   enable a magnification of the effect by ten times even without
   invasive procedures.
   [106]Craig Venter has discussed the possibility of increasing
   cognitive faculties by ten times using genetic engineering. Genetic
   engineering, stem cells, mind machine interfaces, virtual reality
   training and other high potential cognitive enhancement might enable
   such radical leaps in capability.
   [107]Vernor Vinge's ideas around intelligence amplification are
   discussed at the New York Times They are find more productive ways for
   humans to collaborate and for humans to be helped by computers.
   [108]Rapid progress with genome sequencing and dna synthesis and
   synthetic biology are setting the stage for radical genetic
   engineering advances
   [109]A breakthrough in artificial general intelligence would also
   enable such an intelligence explosion.
   [110]DARPA 3 billion program of human enhancement also could cure
   obesity and provide the elderly with youthful vigor.
   Getting Technological Development Organized
   There are technologies that are underdeveloped but feasible which
   [111]be brought together to create radical transformation of
   technological capabilities as discussed in a concept called a "mundane
   singularity".
   Molecular nanotechnology, diamondoid nanotech, nanofactories and
   nanomedicine
   [112]The long awaited funding of diamondoid mechanosynthesis could
   finally lead to breakthroughs in molecular nanotechnology
   Molecular nanotechnology is already progressing with fastly improving
   [113]self assembly capabilities and [114]various types of DNA
   nanotechnology
   Controversial 2009 Possibility is Blacklight Power
   Based on the claimed performance, a 100 MW Blacklight Power system
   would fit in 5 cubic meters and could be powered for a year with 130
   tons of fuel (hydrino water).

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   Breakthroughs'

[132]IBM Develops Electric Control of Light from Carbon Nanotubes

   By fabricating an optical cavity around light-emitting nanotube
   mirrors at the bottom and top, wavelengths were confined to the
   desired 1.55-micron communications frequency. IBM researchers see a
   development path to light emitting nanotubes with no waste heat and a
   way to create a superlattice array of tubes for silicon photonic chips
   for optical computers.
   [133]EETimes reports, electric control of the spectrum, direction and
   efficiency of light-emitting nanotubes (LENs) has been demonstrated by
   [134]researchers at IBM Corp.'s Thomas J. Watson Research Center They
   have put a LEN inside an optical waveguide to achieve directional
   surface emission, wavelength selectivity and the potential for
   ultrahigh efficiency.

     IBM achieved surface emission by combining a single nanotube-based
     field-effect-transistor with a pair of metallic mirrors, one above
     and below the nanotube which lies flat on the silicon chip. The
     bottom mirror was made from silver, with a top half-mirror made
     from gold. Light was emitted from the nanotube in the cavity, which
     was filled with transparent dielectric.
     The distance between the top and bottom mirrors was calculated to
     be half of the desired emission wavelength, which was set to be
     near a communications wavelength of 1.55 microns. Light was
     reflected upward off the bottom of the cavity, where half was
     passed as a surface emission from the LEN while the other half was
     reflected back down to the bottom mirror to reinforce the desired
     emission wavelength.
     "We confined the emission in an optical cavity with two mirrors, so
     that light forms a standing wave between the mirrors which enhanced
     the frequencies, whose wavelength were equal to half the size of
     the cavity," said Avouris. "We used lithography to form the
     cavities, which achieved a dramatic enhancement--confining the
     spectrum to about 10 percent of what it was without the cavity, and
     giving us an overall enhancement [in the efficiency] of the
     emission of 400 percent."

     IBM claims it is now only a matter of time until virtually all
     wasted energy that formerly generated heat can be eliminated by
     changing the electronic structure of a device.
     "There are two types of emission from an object, radiative and
     nonradiative, with the latter being the energies lost by heat,"
     said Avouris. Radiative emission "was always thought to be a fixed
     property of the material, but what we realized was that it is not
     only the material that is quantized--that has discrete states--but
     the photons also are part of a field that has quantized states.
     "Emission comes by coupling these two fields. We now feel that by
     using an electric field we can change the electronic structure of
     nanotubes so that heat cannot be generated," he added.
     Besides improving the efficiency of future devices by eliminating
     heat generation, IBM researchers also plan to experiment with
     methods of aligning nanotubes to a superlattice. This would allow
     an array of LENs to be fabricated on future silicon photonic chips.

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   Nanotubes'

[152]Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel, indicates Singularity by 2050 and
advanced Claytronics

   [153]Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel, agrees with Ray Kurzweil that the
   Singularity (the time when computer intelligence exceeds human
   intelligence) is near. Rattner thinks the Singularity will [154]happen
   before 2050. In the bottom of this article, there is a large update on
   the Carnegie Mellon University/Intel work on claytronics.
   Justin and his colleagues then showed a lot of technology at the Intel
   Developers Conference. Several of the technologies have been presented
   on this site before.
   - Emotiv Systems demonstrated their brain reading interfaces.
   [155]Covered here in 2007 under cheap brain wave activity sensors
   - [156]Claytronic catoms were demonstrated (covered here in 2007).
   These large catoms will eventually be miniturized to the size of bits
   of sand and will be able to create shapes the liquid metal terminator
   or the Sandman.
   - a robot arm with "pretouch" ability to sense the location of an
   apple and seize hold.
   - A silicon photonics demo transmitted data at 3.2 gigabits per second
   from and to a microprocessor using optical signals.
   - wireless transmission of 60 watts of power to illuminate a light
   bulb; it has 75 percent efficiency.
   Jan Rabaey, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley,
   describes his vision for the future of radio communications. Rabaey
   said he believes each person will have about 1,000 radios soon, most
   of them vanishingly small. Radio devices, he said, will become
   "cognitive," so they can automatically sense where there's uncluttered
   radio spectrum available and which communication protocols should be
   used at a given moment. He also believes they'll become more
   collaborative--able to link together in a mesh network that
   collectively can transmit data faster, in greater quantity, more
   efficiently, and more reliably.
   Rattner holds a Wisp (Wireless Identification and Sensing Platform), a
   device with a processor, memory, and radio that passively collects
   energy until it has enough to send a transmission.
   FURTHER READING
   [157]Claytronics at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU)
   [158]Claytronics hardware at CMU

     At the current stage of design, claytronics hardware operates from
     macroscale designs with devices that are much larger than the tiny
     modular robots that set the goals of this engineering research.
     Such devices are designed to test concepts for sub-millimeter scale
     modules and to elucidate crucial effects of the physical and
     electrical forces that affect nanoscale robots.
     * [159]Planar catoms test the concept of motion without moving
     parts and the design of force effectors that create cooperative
     motion within ensembles of modular robots.
     Planar magnetic rings. Two magnet rings from Planar Catom V7
     display the arrangement of their 12 magnets around individual
     driver boards and the coil design for horseshoe magnets
     * [160]Electrostatic latches model a new system of binding and
     releasing the connection between modular robots, a connection that
     creates motion and transfers power and data while employing a small
     factor of a powerful force.
     A simple and robust inter-module latch is possibly the most
     important component of a modular robotic system.
     * [161]Stochastic Catoms integrate random motion with global
     objectives communicated in simple computer language to form
     predetermined patterns, using a natural force to actuate a simple
     device, one that cooperates with other small helium catoms to
     fulfill a set of unique instructions.
     * Giant Helium Catoms provide a larger-than-life, lighter-than-air
     platform to explore the relation of forces when electrostatics has
     a greater effect than gravity on a robotic device, an effect
     simulated with a modular robot designed for self-construction of
     macro-scale structures.
     * [162]Cubes employ electrostatic latches to demonstrate the
     functionality of a device that could be used in a system of
     lattice-style self-assembly at both the macro and nano-scale.

   The Cube above models the primary building block in a hypothetical
   system for robotic self-assembly that could be used for modular
   construction and employ Cubes that are larger or smaller in scale than
   the pictured device.

   [163][advancednano?i=tWlnC1] 
   [164][advancednano?i=pib2oK] [165][advancednano?i=J4rHwK]
   [166][advancednano?i=LgA1CK] [167][advancednano?i=hpNKRk]
   [168][advancednano?i=dKg05k] [169][advancednano?i=pCj4mk]
   [170][advancednano?i=iznxwK] [171][advancednano?i=EgJnPk]
   [172][advancednano?i=Zc0HqK] [173][advancednano?i=rIK0Uk]
   [174][advancednano?i=LijgpK] 
   [374887065]
   o [175]Email to a friend o [176]Article Search o [177]Related o
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   [179]Rate 'Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel, indicates Singularity by 2050
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     * [180]One wheel and three wheel motorbikes
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     * [182]Nuclear power will be added faster than wind power
     * [183]GDP if the Soviet Union still Existed
     * [184]The Soviet Union/Unified Team would have won 171 medals

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----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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