[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Fri Aug 22 08:14:17 UTC 2008
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Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 03:43:05 -0400
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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]Aubrey de Grey Interview at betterhumans
2. [4]French process to extract uranium from reactor ash
3. [5]Electromagnetic Pulse Risk not Total
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]Aubrey de Grey Interview at betterhumans
[9]Aubrey de Grey interview on longevity, life extension and
Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS) at
betterhumans.com
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Estimate of the timing of results:
I [Aubrey] think there's a 50% chance of getting the
first-generation SENS therapies working within 25-30 years. But
that's only an estimate, and it's a highly speculative one: I think
there's at least a 10% chance that we will hit so many unforeseen
problems that we won't get there for 100 years. This is not
something special about SENS, though: any technology that's two or
more years away could easily be 100 years away.
Which anti-aging treatments soonest ?
..probably the closest is in fact not the enzyme therapy you
mention, but the use of vaccines to eliminate extracellular
aggregates (especially amyloid). But when we consider the others,
actually I wouldn't like to make the call, because the hardest ones
are the ones that the Methuselah Foundation and I are prioritising
in terms of the early research. In other words, we're hoping that
they will start to catch up with the easier ones. I suspect that
the challenge of genetically modifying a high proportion of cells
by somatic gene therapy will have been largely solved before we
complete the development of all the genes that we want to
introduce.
What will early anti-aging stem cell treatments be like ?
Stem cell treatments are mostly done with injections, but some of
them (including ones for WILT) will be done from the outside, using
technologies borrowed from cosmetic surgery for example. At first,
these therapies will be quite experimental, so people will need to
be monitored carefully for a while, but that will be a temporary
phase. I don't think the patient will feel unusual or experience
any change of appearance. There should be no perceptible
"macro-changes" as a result of WILT--the idea is to stop cancers
from getting large enough to be noticed at all.
SENS will upgrade over time
Because SENS has so many components, it'll be undergoing enhancements
continuously after its first version arrives. Most of these
enhancements will be conceptually quite minor - one more enzyme to get
rid of a slowly accumulating target junk molecule, one more cell type
that we need to replenish because too many cells have died, etc. But
you're right; occasionally there will need to be more major
enhancements. I don't know in detail how we'd cope with non-specific
mutation accumulation - if I did, I'd suggest that we deal with it
now, just in case my analysis of the non-importance of those mutations
in a currently normal lifetime is wrong - but I expect it'll involve
an increased use of tissue engineering for most tissues, and in those
where that's impractical (especially the brain) a very mild
stimulation of cell death combined with cell replacement from stem
cells.
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[33]French process to extract uranium from reactor ash
[34]Areva and the University of Idaho have signed an agreement to
develop technology for recovering uranium from incinerator ash at
Areva's uranium fuel plant in Richland, Washington state. The process
also reduces the amount of ash classified as radioactive waste.
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Chien Wai, a chemistry professor at the University of Idaho, has
developed a process that uses supercritical fluids to dissolve toxic
metals. When this process is coupled with a purifying process
developed in partnership with Sydney Koegler, an engineer with Areva
and former student at the University of Idaho, enriched uranium can be
recovered from the ashes of contaminated materials.
A supercritical fluid - in this case carbon dioxide (CO2) - is any
substance raised to a temperature and pressure at which it exhibits
properties of both a gas and a liquid. When supercritical, the
substance can move directly into a solid like a gas, yet dissolve
compounds like a liquid. CO2 reaches its supercritical state at a
pressure of about 6.9 MPa and a temperature of 31°C. When the fluid's
pressure is returned to normal, it becomes a gas and evaporates,
leaving behind only the extracted compounds. Wai commented that
supercritical CO2 has been used for decades to remove caffeine from
whole coffee beans.
Areva plans to apply the process to recover uranium from 32 tonnes of
ash at its Richland nuclear fuel plant. In addition to the recovery of
two tonnes of uranium, the radiotoxicity of the post-process ash is
reduced, thereby allowing some to be reclassified as other than
low-level waste (LLW).
Construction of the ash-uranium recovery plant will begin in 2008 and
should be operational in 2009. It will take about one year to process
the 32 tonnes of ash at Richland, after which the plant could process
ash from other LLW generators in the nuclear energy and nuclear
medicine industries.
[41]LLW from a nuclear plant
Waste type
Waste volume (cubic metres)
Reprocessing
Once-through
LLW 15,152 20,060
ILW 36 11
HLW 5 40
[42]In other nuclear news, Canada is extending the operating life of
the Gentilly 2 nuclear reactor until 2040
FURTHER READING
[43]Other methods of handling low level waste
A large nuclear power plant that generates electricity for a half
million people produces approximately 25 tons of spent fuel annually.
An equivalent coal plant produces 10 million tons annually of air
pollutants, potentially hazardous ash, and other wastes.
[44]Nuclear waste discussed at Berkeley
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[62]Electromagnetic Pulse Risk not Total
[63]The Wall Street Journal and other sources have been discussing the
threat of an Electromagnetic Pulse attack on the USA.
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[70]The counter to these claims are that only 1% of the lights in
Hawaii were effected by the Starfish Prime test (1.4 megaton
thermonuclear weapon detonated 250 miles above Johnston Island in the
Pacific in 1962).
The 1962 bomb affected street lamps, circuit breakers, cars and radio
stations in Hawaiian, 800 miles to the north. Still, even there the
effect was far from comprehensive. Los Alamos National Laboratory
physicist Michael P. Bernardin said that "the 30 strings of failed
streetlights [from Starfish Prime's EMP] represented only about one
percent of the streetlamps on Oahu at the time." And noted physicist
Richard Garwin said the Starfish detonation "had barely noticeable
effects on military systems."
[71]Starfish Prime is discussed at Wikipedia
[72]Stanley Jakubiak's statement and research suggests that actual EMP
damage would not be total
Testing of commercial off the shelf (COTS) equipment has allowed us
to make some observations regarding the vulnerability of COTS
equipment to a range of EMP environments that may be of some use in
assessing the impact of an EMP environment on the unprotected
commercial infrastructure. In general, it is possible that some
equipment upset can occur when the EMP environment field strengths
are between 3 - 8 kilovolts per meter (kV/m). When the field
strengths reach above 8 kV/m the risk that some equipment will
upset becomes more probable. In the range of 7 - 20 kV/m there is a
possibility that some equipment will be damaged, above 20 kV/m
damage is probable. Results from some recent testing of COTS
computer equipment in September 1998 reconfirmed these
observations.
So the Super-EMP threat is only credible at this time from Russia and
China (20 megaton bombs that have amplified EMP effects that could
have strong effects across a country). It is clear that EMP does cause
problems and many places would have blackout issues if a large EMP
(particular nuclear EMP devices) were used. Blackouts would be
extensive but not total and full recovery would take time.
Systems hardening should be done but it should be performed with a
prudent cost conscious upgrade plan.
There is vulnerability but the 90% death figure is an overblown threat
assessment.
Many people have camping gear and would be able to heat water to
purify. The obesity of many Americans would come into play to provide
more time to prevent starvation. Only a fraction of even unprotected
equipment will be disabled in terms of an attempt at nationwide
disruption. There is shielded equipment that would not be effected.
There is a level of spare parts and hydro, coal and nuclear would be
relatively easy to get back on line. There are some spare parts to get
some level of water service back. It would be disruptive and a problem
but there would not be a complete blackout. Plus there are old
equipment at some older power plants and military
bases from the cold war days, or some buildings just may have some
Faraday cage (electromagnetic shielding) type setup.
Since it would cost 1-5% to properly remediate, then there should be
upgrades to key infrastructure against other vulnerabilities at the
same time.
There is the [73]Critical infrastructure protection program. ([74]CIP)
The CIP researchers are aware of the issue and written papers on it.
There is sufficient money going to the Departmennt of Homeland
Security (DHS) and CIP. It is a matter of how much gets spent on pork
and how much actually goes to fixing the problems. There have been
about 2100 identified key installations that have been identified as
needing protection. They should get some remediation over the next 5
years and for the military to get less complacent and back closer to
cold war levels of pre-prep.
FURTHER READING
The [75]EMP study (which may be making the issue seem bigger than it
is and guiding more money than is needed at the problem) suggests:
The cost recommendations for decent levels of hardening of key aspects
of the electrical grid and generation systems (Less than $3 billion
for some decent protection.)
Only the costs for some of the larger or more system-specific
initiatives are estimated here (in 2007 dollars).
- There are several thousand major transformers and other high-value
components on the transmission grid. Protective relays and sensors for
these components are more than that number but less than twice. A
continual program of replacement and upgrade with EMP-hardened
components will substantially reduce the cost attributable uniquely to
EMP. Labor for installation is already a part of the industry work
force. The estimated cost for add-on and EMP-hardened replacement
units and EMP protection schemes is in the range of $250 million to
$500 million.
- Approximately 5,000 generating plants of significance will need some
form of added protection against EMP, particularly for their control
systems. In some instances the
fix is quite inexpensive and in others it will require major
replacements. The estimated cost is in the range of $100 million to
$250 million.
- The addition of nonsynchronous interfaces to create subregion
islands is not known with reasonable certainty, but it might be in the
order of $100 million to $150 million per island. The pace of creating
islands and their priority will be established by DHS in consultation
with NERC and FERC. Moving to at least six or more fairly rapidly is a
fair assumption. There will be annual operating costs of around $5
million per island.
- The simulation and training centers are assumed at three -- one for
each interconnect
-- for a cost in the range of $100 million to $250 million plus annual
operating costs of around $25 million per year.
- Protection of controls for emergency power supplies should not be
too expensive since hard-wired manual start and run capability should
be in place for many, which is adequate. Furthermore, the test,
adjust, and verification will be carried out by the entity that owns
the emergency power supply as part of normal operating procedures.
Retrofit of protective devices such as filters might be accomplished
at a cost of less than $30,000 per generator for newer generators with
vulnerable electronic controls. Hardening the connection to the rest
of the facility power system requires a protected internal
distribution system from the backup generator.
- Switchable ground resistors for high-value transformers are
estimated to cost in the range of $75 million to $150 million.
- The addition of new black start generation with system integration
and protected controls is estimated to cost around $12 million per
installation. Probably no more than 150 such installations will need
to be added throughout the United States and Canadian provinces.
Adding dual fuel capability to natural gas-fired generation is done
for the economic purpose of the owner, yet it has the same value as
the addition of black start generation. The addition of fuel storage
for the existing black start units is relatively small, about $1
million each.
- The addition of emergency generation at the multitude of sites
including fuel and transportation sites is probably around $2 million
to $5 million each.
- The cost for monitoring, on a continuous basis, the state of the
electric infrastructure, its topology, and key elements plus for
assessing the actual EMP vulnerability, validation of mitigation and
protection, maintenance, and surveillance data for the system at large
cannot be estimated since it falls under many existing
government-funded activities, but in any event, it is not considered
significant.
- Research and development activities are a level-of-effort funding
that needs to be decided by DHS. Redirection of existing funding is
also likely to occur.
- Funding for the initiatives above is to be divided between industry
and government. Government is responsible for those activities that
relate directly
and uniquely to the purpose of assuring continuation of the necessary
functioning of U.S. society in the face of an EMP attack or other
broadly targeted physical or information systems attack. Industry is
responsible for all other activities including reliability, efficiency
and commercial interests. Industry is also the best source for advice
on cost effective implementation of the initiatives.
No cost is quoted, but $1 billion each in preventative hardening of
key water, food and transportation.
[76]The unclassified DOD report on the starfish prime test
[77]1964 Nasa report on high altitude EMP
Personal Protection Steps Against EMP
[78]What can your everyday civilian do to protect themselves against
the possibility of an EMT attack?
1. Have a lot of battery operated devices on hand and the batteries to
use them. Further, these appliances should have cords and antennas 30
inches or less in length. The reason for this is simple: Metal pulls
in EMP and makes it more dangerous. Thus, less metal is good. Further,
keep these appliances away from metal.
2. Stay 8 feet from large scale metal fixtures yourself. In fact, when
EMP is concentrated by metal it can actually be dangerous to man in
and of itself.
3. Harden your equipment (another way of saying, protect it from EMP).
Some considerations include the use of tree formation circuits (not
standard loop formations), induction shielding around components,
self-contained battery packs, loop antennas, and Zener diodes. In
addition, grounding wires for each separate instrument into a system
could help as well.
4. A new device called the Ovonic Threshold Device (Energy Conversion
Devices of Troy, MI) is a solid state switch that opens a path to
ground when a massive surge of EMP is encountered by a circuit. This
would help in a big way.
5. Use a Faraday Box to store equipment in. Makeshift Faraday boxes
can be made from metal filing cabinets, ammunition containers, and
cake boxes. That said, the device you are protecting must not touch
the metal container (use insulation: paper, cardboard, whatever).
Further, there can be no holes. Last, if the box seems less than
adequate, you may wrap it in aluminum foil for more protection.
6. Wrap your rooms in aluminum foil. Well, it's certainly extreme, but
thought it worth mentioning. After you do so, cover it with some type
of fake wood, etc.
[Some drywall boards have a metal sheet, so select such boards when
remodelling]
7. Cars are already a metal box. Thus, most of them would survive.
That said, gas would be a problem. So have a lot of that and food on
hand (remember that refrigerators and water sanitizing devices would
go out).
Only the [79]EMP from a near hit surface burst can cause trouble for
hardened silo.
156 kA, 56 kA secondary peak. Lightning up to 1km distance generated
from a 10 megaton blast.
The peak electric field from Starfish prime (1.4 megaton blast) on
Honolulu would have been 5.6 kV/m energy density 0.01j/m**2 [This is
10% of the worst case field, so there is high variability in the EMP
effect]
The US would be able to launch nukes from silos, bombers and
submarines after any EMP attack.
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102. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=f1ba80fb-701d-11dd-aea5-0040ca82&group=64651
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108. http://www.feedblitz.com/
109. http://www.feedblitz.com/
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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