[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Wed Aug 20 08:57:51 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]A projected rollout of electric planes
2. [4]Technology News roundup: Vasimr rocket, $12 PC, $10 microscope,
better biomass
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]A projected rollout of electric planes
Electric planes do not have to be private (although things will start
out that way.)
Electric planes (with jumpjet type takeoff and landing) could form a
virtual callable personal pod transportation (which have been proposed
for cities) but without building the rails. One of the Personal pod
transportation proposals is shown here.
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Current electric planes hold one or two people.
The airplane efficiency numbers (where there are no need for roads)are
already competitive with trains. Electric planes are ten to twenty
times more efficient fuel wise than current small planes.
The 438 mpg equivalent [14]electric planes were previously discussed
on this site.
However, the electric plane rollout will likely follow as vehicles for
the business jet and an expansion of the current small plane owner
class to fly above car traffic and not just for recreation and between
cities. The USA currently has about 250,000 planes. This will be
something else for people to complain about that the rich and affluent
having that they do not. Perhaps 1 to 2 million personal electric
planes by 2020, but business as usual without robotic controls could
see the numbers in the 50,000-100,000 level in the USA and 100,000 to
500,000 level worldwide by 2020. Electric planes are already in the
$40,000 to $150,000 price range (in the range of upper end cars). High
volume production could reduce those prices to the $20,000 to $75,000
level. Actual visionary adoption could create the volume to get below
$20,000. An optimistic projection where the supply chain for hybrid
cars could be leveraged, battery and robotic control technologies were
mature and where [15]Mundane Singularity type production takes over
would have up to 5 to 20 million personal electric planes by 2020.
Definitely there is the potential for the widespread vision starting
in the 2020-2030 time frame.
The limited use vision instead of public systems for reduced commutes
for everyone would be where we have:
"Look at them flying above our gridlock in vehicles we were mocking
when they were proposed as an everyman system. But now that it is only
the rich that have it, I want to bitch and complain that I should get
it too. My lack of vision will lead me to complain about it after I
see them flying overhead while I am stuck in ground traffic"
: [16]2008 CAFE Foundation Electric Aircraft Symposium has been held
to work on the technical issues of personal aviation.
The NASA vision of personal aviation (PAV): [17]Near all-weather STOL
PAVs will be able to transport people to within just a few miles of
their doorstep destination at trip speeds three to four times faster
than airlines or cars. NASA predicts that up to 45% of all miles
traveled in the future may be in PAVs. This will relieve congestion at
metropolitan hub airports and the freeways that surround them, reduce
the need to build new highways and save much of the 6.8 billion
gallons of fuel wasted in surface gridlock each year.
The average doorstep to doorstep trip speed for automobiles is just 35
mph and for airliners is just 55 mph on trips under 250 miles. Recent
delays caused by anti-terrorism security inspections reduce this speed
even further. Traffic jams in the U.S. cost $78 Billion in year 2004,
wasting 6.7 Billion gallons of fuel. These figures and the stress and
pollution they entail worsen each year. Building new freeway lanes or
light railway lines costs about $20 Million per mile and do not solve
the fundamental problem.
98% of the U.S. population lives within 20 miles of at least one
public use airport and yet 95% of commercial air traffic uses only 30
of our nation's 5,000 airports. A study on airspace capacity
contracted by NASA shows that our skies can accommodate at least 700
times more aircraft than are flying today.
20,000 large jets - 14 million would 700 times more
200,000 small planes - 140 million would be 700 times more
FAA and the Joint Planning and Development Office are already planning
FAA's Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) to be an
automated system that provides each aircraft its own traffic-free,
computer-coordinated "Highway In The Sky."
- Short runway use--Walk to grandma's from small residential airfields
[18]Dozens of research papers that address the various issues. Plus
[19]the recent conference papers
The efficiency of public transportation has to factor in the number of
people being moved. The Brad Templeton case is that if you have low
usage (4 people in a bus then the public transportation system is less
efficient than a car.)
More restrictions can be applied to air traffic corridors and loosened
only as the air traffic technology safely permits.
[20]Intermediate step of using the 3,400 small airports in the U.S.
alone. So mostly not building to building air traffic.
The SATS Project (2001-2006), conducted by NASA and partners in the
National Consortium for Aviation Mobility (NCAM) proved the
viability of technical capabilities in the following four areas:
* High-volume operations at airports without control towers or
terminal radar facilities
* Technologies enabling safe landings at more airports in almost
all weather conditions
* Integration of SATS aircraft into a higher capacity air traffic
control system, with complex flows and slower aircraft
* Improved single-pilot ability to function competently in
evolving, complex national airspace
Navigation related
[21]Virtual skies navigation concept
[22]Air transportation models help planning as volume increases
[23]Synthetic vision for all weather flight
This site believes that the interface should be one where automated
robotic flying is used for personal aviation. However, up to the 1
million to 3 million electric planes in the USA level it will probably
be advanced flight assist systems and people getting sport plane
licenses or private air licenses who fly the planes.
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[41]Technology News roundup: Vasimr rocket, $12 PC, $10 microscope, better
biomass
This technology news roundup has imminent testing of the Vasimr plasma
rocket in space, twelve dollar personal computers, ten dollar dime
sized microscopes and a plant that is 250% better than corn for
biofuels and twice as productive as switchgrass. (the plant has not
been modified yet and genetic modifications could vastly increase
yields.)
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[vasimrVX200.JPG]
[48]Nasa will be testing the Vasimr plasma rocket soon on the
International Space Station. [49]The 200KW Vasimr was covered here in
April 2008
[50]A group of people attending the MIT International Development
Design Summit are working to make a $12 computer based on the Apple
II. These include, clockwise from front left, U.S. graduate student
Derek Lomas, Anuj Nanavati of India, MIT graduate Jesse
Austin-Breneman.
[51]Imagine a microscope implanted into your body that could
automatically sort out cancerous cells based on how they looked.
That's the long-term promise of a lensless microscope that Caltech
researchers describe this week in the journal Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences.
Exploiting technology commonly used in consumer digital cameras,
the M&M-size microscope is able to provide resolution comparable to
an optical microscope at a mere fraction of the cost, perhaps as
cheaply as $10 per unit.
"Microscopy is undergoing a great revolution now because of modern
optics and spectroscopy," Feld said. "There are many exciting new
approaches and this is one of them."
But Yang's tiny, cheap microscope could have nearly immediate
applications. In the very short-term, Yang envisions a system for
identifying diseases in the Third World that could cost a mere $100
and come embedded inside a cellphone or custom device for field
work. "Because we can build [the microscope] very compactly, we can
imagine building an entire system that is the size of an iPod," he
said.
All of these applications could come into being very soon. Yang's
lab is currently negotiating with semiconductor companies to mass
produce his devices. Right now, it takes two days for one of his
grad students to assemble one.
Once they enter manufacturing, however, they'll be able to make
hundreds of the devices, and that's when high-throughput optical
microscopy could become a reality. Working with image processing
software designers, they're hoping to come up with autonomous
systems for finding ad imaging cells.
[52]Researchers have determined that an acre of the giant perennial
grass Miscanthus x giganteus makes 2 1/2 times the amount of ethanol
we can produce per acre of corn.
"One of the criticisms of using any biomass as a biofuel source is it
has been claimed that plants are not very efficient - about 0.1
percent efficiency of conversion of sunlight into biomass," Long said.
"What we show here is on average Miscanthus is in fact about 1 percent
efficient, so about 1 percent of sunlight ends up as biomass."
"Keep in mind that this Miscanthus is completely unimproved, so if we
were to do the sorts of things that we've managed to do with corn,
where we've increased its yield threefold over the last 50 years, then
it's not unreal to think that we could use even less than 10 percent
of the available agricultural land," Long said. "And if you can
actually grow it on non-cropland that would be even better."
"Our highest productivity is actually occurring in the south, on the
poorest soils in the state," he said. "So that also shows us that this
type of crop may be very good for marginal land or land that is not
even being used for crop production."
Because Miscanthus is a perennial grass, it also accumulates much more
carbon in the soil than an annual crop such as corn or soybeans, Long
said.
"In the context of global change, that's important because it means
that by producing a biofuel on that land you're taking carbon out of
the atmosphere and putting it into the soil."
"One reason why Miscanthus yields more biomass than corn is that it
produces green leaves about six weeks earlier in the growing season,"
Long said. Miscanthus also stays green until late October in Illinois,
while corn leaves wither at the end of August, he said.
Using corn or switchgrass to produce enough ethanol to offset 20
percent of gasoline use - a current White House goal - would take 25
percent of current U.S. cropland out of food production, the
researchers report. Getting the same amount of ethanol from Miscanthus
would require only 9.3 percent of current agricultural acreage.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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