[tt] Next Big Future - 5 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 17:30:27 UTC 2008
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Date: Wed, 06 Aug 2008 03:24:02 -0400
To: eugen <eugen at leitl.org>
Subject: Next Big Future - 5 new articles
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Here are the latest updates for eugen at leitl.org
"[2]Next Big Future" - 5 new articles
1. [3]Prediction: Dark Knight will top Titanic United States Box
Office
2. [4]What would it take ? New Nuclear electricity at less than two
cents per kwh
3. [5]First Integrated Nanowire Sensor Circuitry
4. [6]EEStor update from MIT Technology Review
5. [7]Re-inventing Civil Defense : Zero soft targets
6. [8]More Recent Articles
7. [9]Search Next Big Future
[10]Prediction: Dark Knight will top Titanic United States Box Office
This is a small prediction on a trivial topic. Dark Knight will earn
more than the non-inflation adjusted total of Titanic.
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[17]This Mondays numbers were 45% over the Dead Man's chest numbers,
which could be an indication of longer legs than Dead Man's chest. An
extra $4 million this week if the pattern holds throughout the week.
An informal poll of people I know indicate more of a willingness to
watch Dark Knight a second time than Dead man's Chest. Especially to
watch Dark Knight on Imax (Imax showings were sold out several days in
advance early on). If the 45% weekdays over Dead Mens Chest effect is
all there is then that would put DK at about $560M with the the
slightly longer stay in theaters out to Week 15. I would say $500M on
38th to 45th day of release. There would need to be another wave of
repeat viewings at about weeks 5-10 that carried through for an even
longer stay to 20 weeks to get to 600M. Getting to 580-590M would be
enough for "take out Titanic" marketing push for rabid fans. I believe
DK will be showings its longer legs this week and the next four. The
non-inflation adjusted Titanic total will be (barely)taken out. DK
will be well short of the inflation adjusted total of $900M. DK will
also not be near Titanics World Wide total
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[35]What would it take ? New Nuclear electricity at less than two cents per
kwh
[36]New nuclear plants constructed in the USA can provide electricity
at about 5-6 cents/kwh
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[42]Ads delivered by FeedBlitz
Because of the large capital costs for nuclear power, and the
relatively long construction period before revenue is returned,
servicing the capital costs of a nuclear power plant is the most
important factor determining the economic competitiveness of
nuclear energy. The investment can contribute about 70% of costs of
electricity, according to one 2005 OECD/NEA study (which assumed a
10% discount rate). The discount rate chosen to cost a nuclear
power plant's capital over its lifetime is arguably the most
sensitive parameter to overall costs.
Industry consensus is that a 5% discount rate is appropriate for
plants operating in a regulated utility environment where revenues
are guaranteed by captive markets, and 10% discount rate is
appropriate for a competitive deregulated or merchant plant
environment, however the independent MIT study which used a more
sophisticated finance model distinguishing equity and debt capital
had a higher 11.5% average discount rate.
Construction delays can add significantly to the cost of a plant.
Because a power plant does not yield profits during construction,
longer construction times translate directly into higher interest
charges on borrowed construction funds. Modern nuclear power plants
are planned for construction in four years or less (42 months for
CANDU ACR-1000, 60 months from order to operation for an AP1000, 48
months from first concrete to operation for an EPR and 45 months
for an ESBWR) as opposed to over a decade for some previous plants.
The first AP1000 has some delays but we will see how much that drops
with the later ones which will be built, in particular China is
ordering 40-100 AP1000s. [43]China has put together what amounts to a
production line for further build of AP1000 nuclear reactors. A 71000
square meter (710,000 square feet) factory specifically designed for
nuclear power plant component modules. Shandong Nuclear Power
Construction Group built the facility, which has the capacity to
support the construction of two AP1000s each year, in just 11 months.
[They will need four more factories to build ten AP1000s each year.
Nine more to build twenty AP1000s per year.]
Shandong said the new 71,000 square metre factory includes a
cutting workshop, a pipeline workshop, a paint shop and a workshop
for containment vessels (the steel liners that lie within the
overall reinforced concrete reactor containment).
Large components for the Haiyang units have already been
contracted: Doosan Heavy Industries of Korea is making the reactor
pressure vessels and steam generators, while Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries of Japan and Harbin Boiler Works of China will supply
the steam turbines. For Westinghouse's other pair of AP1000s at
Sanmen the steam generators and reactor pressure vessels will be
made in China by either Harbin, First Heavy Machinery Works or
Shanghai Electric.
First concrete at Haiyang - the official start of construction - is
expected in September 2009, with commissioning of the first unit
about 36 months later.
Longer construction times add higher interest charges. (About 20-40%
to the cost over 4-5 years.) Bringing construction time down to 2
years for China's HTR would
help lower costs.The China HTR is starting at 6 cents per kwh but they
need to get volume scaling to lower costs equal to large plant
scaling.
[44]$ per Megawatt-hour (10 $/Mw-hr = 1 cent/kw-hr):
Old Nuclear Coal New Nuclear est
1 Fuel 5.0 11.0 5.0
2 Operating & Maintenance - Labor & Materials 6.0 5.0 8.0
3 Pensions, Insurance, Taxes 1.0 1.0 1.0
4 Regulatory Fees 1.0 0.1 1.0
5 Property Taxes 2.0 2.0 2.0
6 Capital 9.0 9.0 39.0
7 Decommissioning & DOE waste costs 5.0 0.0 5.0
8 Administrative / overheads 1.0 1.0 1.0
Total 30.0 29.1 60.0
Payoff capital costs (after say 30-40 years) and the it goes down to 2
cents per kwh.
for the remaining 20-30+ years on old nuclear. New nuclear has
inflated capital costs because of currently higher commodity prices
and other inflated costs.
Waste costs can be reduced if we have new deep burn capable reactors
to burn it.
[45]Nuclear fuel costs
Uranium: 8.9 kg U3O8 x $53 472
Conversion: 7.5 kg U x $12 90
Enrichment: 7.3 SWU x $135 985
Fuel fabrication: per kg 240
Total, approx: US$ 1787
At 45,000 MWd/t burn-up this gives 360,000 kWh electrical per kg, hence fuel co
st: 0.50 c/kWh.
If MW days per ton is double then half volume of fuel is needed. This
can be achieved with new annular fuel and slightly higher enrichment
levels. 8% instead of 5%.
Enrichment from 2012 onwards will be 3-20 times cheaper with laser
enrichment.
Half the fuel at three times cheaper enrichment is
Uranium $250
Conversion $45
Enrichment $165
Fuel fab $240 (halved for less fuel but doubled for more c
omplex
fabrication)
Total approx $750
0.2 c/kwh
The world nuclear link also factors in building a lot more units to
get learning curve reductions in costs and the effect of 60 year life
instead of 40 year (the 50% longer life reduces kwh costs by 1 penny
when combined with 5 year instead of 7
year construction)
More units allow first of kind costs to be amortized.
$1200/kw capital costs, 5 year construction, 60 year life is 3.4
cents/kwh
$1000/kw capital costs, 2 year construction, 80 year life, reduced
fuel costs 2 cents/kwh for new construction, plus less waste handling
with deep burn.
Operation and maintenance can be reduced with more automation and
design efficiency.
Volume Improved Nuclear estimate
1 Fuel 2.0 (laser enrichment, 50% uprate)
2 Operating & Maint - Labor&Materials 2.0 (automation, improved designs)
3 Pensions, Insurance, Taxes 1.0
4 Regulatory Fees 1.0
5 Property Taxes 2.0
6 Capital 7.0 (loan guarantees,factories, high v
olume, longer 80 year operation so more amortization)
7 Decommissioning & DOE waste costs 1.0 (Deep burn the waste, more time un
til decommissioning with longer life,more time for interest to build for decomm
issioning fund)
8 Administrative / overheads 1.0
Total 17.0 equal to 1.7 cents per kwh
China could get labor costs down with lower salaries and capital costs
could be reduced because of lower construction costs. China could get
to 1.3-1.5 cents per kwh.
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[63]First Integrated Nanowire Sensor Circuitry
Randomly oriented nanowires, on the growth substrate at left, are
having a "bad hair day." But after contact printing, the nanowires on
the receiver substrate are highly aligned.
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[70]Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory and the University of California at Berkeley have
created the world's first all-integrated sensor circuit based on
nanowire arrays, combining light sensors and electronics made of
different crystalline materials. Their method can be used to reproduce
numerous such devices with high uniformity.
The Javey group has devised two printing methods, contact and
roller. The roller method involves growing nanowires on the surface
of a cylinder and rolling it across the application substrate, like
painting with a paint roller.
Contact printing involves growing nanowires on a flat substrate,
inverting it, and pressing it onto the desired substrate. Then the
nanowires are detached by sliding the growth substrate away,
leaving them attached to the application substrate. Due to the lack
of strong surface chemical interactions between nanowires, the
process is self-limited to the transfer of only one layer of
nanowires. The printed nanowires are highly aligned in the
direction of the sliding.
For their integrated nanowire photosensor circuitry, the Javey
group used cadmium selenide nanowires as visible-light sensors. For
the electronics, nanowires with a germanium core and a silicon
shell were the basis of field-effect transistors that would amplify
the current produced by the photosensors in response to light by
five orders of magnitude.
Results of the Javey group's integrated nanowire circuit showed
successful photoresponse in 80 percent of the circuits, with fairly
small variations among them. Where circuits did fail, the causes
were due to defects in fabrication of the circuit connections (10
percent), failure in photosensor printing (5 percent), or defective
nanowires (5 percent). The relatively high yield of complex
operational circuits proved the potential of the technology, with
improvements readily achievable by optimizing nanowire synthesis
and fabrication of the devices.
Artist's impression of an integrated light sensor circuit based on
nanowire arrays (Javey Group).
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[88]EEStor update from MIT Technology Review
[89]EEStor has manufactured materials that have met all certification
milestones for crystallization, chemical purity, and particle-size
consistency. The results suggest that the materials can be made at a
high-enough grade to meet the company's performance goals. The company
also said a key component of the material can withstand the extreme
voltages needed for high energy storage. Representatives of the
company said in a press release that certification data proves that
voltage breakdown of the aluminum oxide occurs at 1,100 volts per
micron--nearly three times higher than EEStor's target of 350 volts.
EEStor claims that its system, called an electrical energy storage
unit (EESU), will have more than three times the energy density of the
top lithium-ion batteries today. The company also says that the
solid-state device will be safer and longer lasting, and will have the
ability to recharge in less than five minutes. Toronto-based ZENN
Motor, an EEStor investor and customer, says that it's developing an
EESU-powered car with a top speed of 80 miles per hour and a 250-mile
range. It hopes to launch the vehicle, which the company says will be
inexpensive, in the fall of 2009. At the EESU's core is a ceramic
material consisting of a barium titanate powder that is coated with
aluminum oxide and a type of glass material.
EEStor claims momentum is building and that they'll start coming out
with information about the company's progress on a "more rapid basis."
Plans are also under way for a major expansion of EEStor's production
lines. "There's nothing complex in this," he says, pointing to his
past engineering days at IBM. "It's nowhere near the complexity of
disk-drive fabrication."
If EEStor is successful, their technology could be used to extend the
range, capacity or other performance metrics of [90]electric planes.
Current electric planes have a range of about 100 miles. Tripling
range would be 300 miles. Alternatively a shorter range with more
passengers is also possible. 4 people instead of two people at about
100-150 mile range.
[91]Hybrid electric planes can go 720 miles.
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[109]Re-inventing Civil Defense : Zero soft targets
Civil defense used to be about bomb shelters in the woods or in our
backyards or state supported tunnels and shelters. Those ideas were
interesting for their time in the Cold War. However, modern nuclear
threats may not provide hours or minutes of warning time for people to
leave homes and offices to reach shelters. If a terrorist or group
were to deploy a nuclear bomb it may not be in a missile that can be
detected and a warning broadcast to the civilian population. The
nuclear device might be brought into a harbor or over a border
undetected.
The world is changing and over the long term deterrence against the
use of nuclear weapons will probably fail, if for no other reason than
perfection is difficult to sustain. Nuclear non-proliferation has
failed. Almost all the key knowledge is available and there are more
and easier ways to produce the enriched uranium.
Civil defense needs to be integrated with our day to day lives.
This means applying affordable technology to make homes and offices
into survivable structures with zero or limited aesthetic compromises.
[110]This was the theme of the previous article on this site about
simple and affordable defenses against nuclear weapons It includes
enabling other effective civil defense measures such as finding a way
to "immunize against radiation".
If our homes and offices are our blast shelter then 80+% or more of
the time that is where we will be if something bad happened.
If you had an old style bomb shelter in your backyard then it is not
likely you would be in it when things hit the fan.
The plan is to design society to shrink the radius of fatalities
around a nuclear explosion and reduce the percentage of dead.
Simple steps to reduce deaths from nuclear weapons, hurricanes,
earthquakes by 10 to 1000 or more times.
-Require a retrofit of all old houses and new houses to use Hurriquake
or better nails
-distribute new anti-radiation drugs widely.
-Use radiation resistance increasing gene therapy and drugs
-Use/retrofit with cellulose nanopaper (stronger than cast iron) for
construction
-Use stronger cement
-Use carbon nanotube/graphene reinforcement (add hydrogen for
radiation blocking)
-Use stronger windows and doors
-Find better fire/thermal resistance modifications
Many small nuclear reactors would enable a more robust electrical grid
(in the event of very rare accidents/incidents, recall that we should
have radiation resistance enhancing treatments and super-effective
anti-rad drugs).
Spend more money to harden the structure of hospitals and other places
that we would especially need to survive nuclear or other attack.
10-50 times reduction in fatalities is very do-able even without the
tech getting too fancy
1000+ times reduction with better but achievable technology, which we
will need because that same category of tech will boost offense.
(nanofactories could make a lot of nukes, so it is good thing that MNT
would also help make us closer to being immune to nukes as well)
The boost to defense means a far bigger safety margin and the small
fry (N Korea/Iran) and medium-small fry (Pakistan) and against
ambitious groups (Al Qaeda) or accidents or whatever.
The level of deaths that is currently expected from one nuke would
require 50 nukes or 1000 nukes (depending upon the level of defense
incorporated into widespread construction.
Note: Overall survivability requires widespread adoption. If you are
in a 100PSI resistant Monolithic dome made from concrete with better
steel and quartz aggregate, then great your building and you survive,
it would still be bad for you if all your neighbors and the rest of
the city got destroyed and their crappy buildings were set on fire. It
is like [111]innoculation with vaccines, the system holds up better if
everyone is required to participate.
One aspect of this is if buildings are built to not fall down when a
nuclear bomb goes off at some distance and the buildings do not get
set on fire then there is less nuclear winter. This means less
problems for agriculture. The nuclear winter scenario is based on
widespread fires from burning buildings and other material. [112]Note:
that simulations have indicated that the initial nuclear winter
calculations indicated a larger problem then is likely. Current
simulations show it would be more like a nuclear autumn.
Also, note that any higher construction costs are offset by lower
maintenance costs and lower insurance for individuals and society.
If your detection and human intelligence is such a sieve that you
cannot tell when someone is bringing 50 nukes or 1000 nukes into your
cities then there is a serious competence problem.
[113]Neutron scatter cameras detect nuclear bombs
[114]Current and future port security
[115]DIY nuke detector patrols SF Bay
[116]Cheap domes for blocking nuclear missiles
[117]Detecting nuclear, biological and chemical materials
[118]Countering bioweapons
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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