[tt] Next Big Future - Simple and affordable defences against nuclear bombs and Katrina Hurricanes
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 17:02:15 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - Simple and affordable defences against nuclear bombs and Katrina Hurricanes
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1. [3]Simple and affordable defences against nuclear bombs and
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[6]Simple and affordable defences against nuclear bombs and Katrina
Hurricanes
A blast-wave overpressure of 5 pounds per square inch, which is
associated with winds around 150 miles per hour, is enough to destroy
wood-frame buildings and cause severe damage to brick apartment
buildings. However, with simple and cheap construction improvements
and retrofits it is possible to enable all wood-frame buildings to
survive 5 PSI. Further construction improvements can increase the
survivability of buildings and the people inside them.
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[13]Hurriquake nails add $15 to the price of a home and make a house
50% more resistant to a hurricane or strong winds (or over pressures
from a nuke).
The bottom section of the HurriQuake nail is circled with angled barbs
that resist pulling out in wind gusts up to 170 mph. This "ring shank"
stops halway up to leave the middle of the nail, which endures the
most punishment during an earthquake, at its maximum thickness and
strength. The blade-like facets of the nail's twisted-top -- the
spiral shank -- keeps planks from wobbling, which weakens a joint. The
HurriQuake's head is also 25 percent larger than average to better
resist counter-sinking and pulling through.
[14]For purposes of very rough estimation, it is sometimes assumed
that the radius of 5 pounds per square inch overpressure defines the
circle for which the number of survivors inside would equal the number
of fatalities outside, taking into account all the listed effects
other than fallout. This would mean that the total number of early
fatalities, other than from fallout, would be estimated as the
population density multiplied by the area of this circle.
If every building could survive 5PSI then there would be no building
failures for category 5 hurricanes or less and potentially no deaths
outside the 5PSI radius of a nuclear blast for anyone inside a
building. This would reduce the casualties from a nuclear bomb by half
or more.
[15]There is a new method of handling wood fibers so that cellulose
fibres are undamaged. The mechanical tests shows undamaged cellulose
paper has a tensile strength of 214 megapascals, making it stronger
than cast iron (130 MPa) and almost as strong as structural steel (250
MPa). This would be a cheap way to increase the strength of
construction material and further reduce the fatal blast radius. If
cellustic fiber provided inexpensive reinforcement up to 20PSI, then
the fatal blast radius for those inside buildings could be reduced to
35%. This would be five times lower fatal area or only 20% of the
casualties.
Buildings already provide substantial radiation shielding.
Shelter in Place: Shielding by Buildings
[16]Buildings provide considerable protection from fallout.
- A brick building provides better protection than does a brick veneer
building, which is better than that of a frame building.
- Multiple stories increase protection as well.
- The interior of a one-story building reduces exposure by 50 percent.
- A level below ground reduces exposure by 90 percent.
- Additional levels provide more shielding and increase the overall
effectiveness above and below ground.
- The five-story building illustration, below, shows that the middle
floors provide better shielding than the ground floor because fallout
that covers the ground emits gamma radiation along with that on the
exterior surfaces of the building.
- Moving to a higher floor in the building increases the distance from
the ground source but, at some point, increases exposure from the
source on the rooftop.
- The best option is to move to the center of the building away from
the exterior walls (and below ground, if possible) or to a middle
floor above ground.
- Note how the position in the building and surroundings affect the
percentage by which exposure is reduced in various locations.
[17]A new drug tested on mice and monkeys provides protection from
radiation exposure.
[18]Gene therapy has been shown to increase radiation survival from
50% to 80%
[19]Dosage is translated to casualties on a linear scale which
measures the probability of the victim dying of radiation sickness. At
250 REM, the number of deaths is assumed to be effectively zero; note
that small children, the elderly, and those with existing medical
problems could conceivably die at this dosage. 250 REM is sufficient
to give most people mild to moderate radiation sickness. At 600 REM,
death is assumed to be virtually certain, especially with the probable
scarcity of medical care in the wake of an attack. Massive attacks on
a small area such as a missile base can produce 600+ REM fallout up to
several hundred miles away.
[20]Medical management (treating the injured) is important to reduce
fatalies. So it makes sense to harden medical facilities to 100 PSI or
higher. Other facilities to harden are power generation.
[21]Monolithic domes are inherently strong and with better concrete
can achieve 100PSI resistance.
Advancing technology means that weapons are getting more and more
powerful and eventually more nations and groups will have access to
nuclear weapons or more powerful weapons. It would foolish to assume
that we must safely walk a tight rope without a safety net. A moderate
increase in building costs will mean more survivable buildings that
will save lives from severe weapons and warfare.
When carbon nanotubes are cheap after 2015 or so, then it will easy to
increase buildings to 100-4000PSI strength while maintain most of the
esthetic look.
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