[tt] Next Big Future - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 16:21:39 UTC 2008
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Date: Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:29:41 -0400
To: eugen <eugen at leitl.org>
Subject: Next Big Future - 4 new articles
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Here are the latest updates for eugen at leitl.org
"[2]Next Big Future" - 4 new articles
1. [3]Superpower China in spite of aging population and pollution
2. [4]Exercise Pills
3. [5]MIT cost effective solar power storage and solar power roundup
4. [6]Two genes found that make Schizophrenia 15 times more likely
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search Next Big Future
[9]Superpower China in spite of aging population and pollution
[10]The Washington Post had an article forecasting problems for China
because of an aging population and too much pollution. Those are
problems but they are not automatic killers of economic progress.
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[17]The Ukraine has had 7% GDP growth in spite of low birth rates and
an average of 39.6 and a falling population. The population 65 years
and over was already 16.6% in 2006.
[18]China has a median age of 33, a higher birth rate and slightly
increasing population. China 65 years and over population is 7.7% in
2007.
[19]china's 2030 population is expected to be 1.6 billion The
population in 2040-2050 could stabilize at around 1.5 billion to 1.6
billion. This means the over 65 population would be around the current
level of the Ukraine. 334 million over 60 in 2050 and 100 million age
80 or older. So 230 million between 60 and 80. Assuming an even
distribution. 57 million would be between 60 and 65. The over 65 level
would be 17-18%.
The one child policy is already getting weakened, so China will likely
see a moderate increase in birth rates between now and 2050.
[20]China's currency will likely strengthen to the level of its
calculated purchasing power parity
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China will be at $9730
per capita PPP GDP in 2013. There are no forecasts for China's
economic wheels to come off in the next 5 years. China would then be
near the per capita wealth of the Ukraine ($10868) and still be at an
average younger age with better demographics.
Air Pollution in England and The United States in 1950s and 1960s
[21]There were substantial air inversions where air pollution killed
hundreds and even thousands in New York and London during the 1950's
and 1960s
In the [22]United States between 1970 and 2006, citizens enjoyed the
following reductions in annual pollution emissions:
carbon monoxide emissions fell from 197 million tons to 89 million
tons
nitrogen oxide emissions fell from 27 million tons to 19 million tons
sulfur dioxide emissions fell from 31 million tons to 15 million tons
particulate emissions fell by 80%
lead emissions fell by more than 98%
This means that the USA had two to five times worse for most air
pollutants in the 1950s and 1960s.
During the 1950's and 1960s the USA had higher economic growth.
Air pollution is bad. This site is not arguing in favor of air
pollution. However, the reason to stop air pollution is to save in
China's case 1-2 million lives per year and improve the health and
lower the medical costs of those made sick by air pollution.
[23]China is making large investments in cleaning up its environment
and energy sources.
[24]China efforts for an improved environment are substantial
[25]China's 2020 energy source mix should be similar to the current
energy mix in the United States (50% coal for electricity, the rest
not coal with a lot of hydro, nuclear and wind.)
By 2020, China will be around the per capita economic level of todays
Poland up to the level of Portugal.
So the statements that China will have too large an aging population
before it becomes wealthy enough to handle it do not hold up to
analysis.
China is not guaranteed to succeed, but the problems that they face
are not insurmountable.
FURTHER READING
[26]Latest economic projection for China by this site
[27]Details coal related mass deaths from the London fog and the
Buffalo Creek mountain top removal sludge dam break.
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[44]Rate 'Superpower China in spite of aging population and pollution'
[45]Exercise Pills
[46]Sedentary mice that got the drug AICAR daily for four weeks were
placed on a treadmill, they were able to run an average of about 550
meters, 44% farther than mice that had received only a placebo. AICAR
tricks the body to react as if exercise had happened.
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Another drug GW1516 combined with exercise gives mice an advantage.
After five weeks of training, mice that got the drug were able to run
for more than three hours, improving 68% more than mice that received
only the training.
When the researchers dissected the mice that got the drug, they found
that the number of high-efficiency muscle fibers had increased 29%.
These drugs could enhance the health of less active people and
increase the health benefits to those who are active. [53]The GW1516
pill can enhance exercise endurance so that a person could workout for
longer sessions.
[54]There is more on gene doping to create more natural EPO for higher
endurance and IGF-1 for more muscles.
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[71]Rate 'Exercise Pills'
[72]MIT cost effective solar power storage and solar power roundup
[73]EETimes reports that MIT has a new catalyst that makes
electrolysis nearly 100% efficient in a cost effective way. This would
make storage of intermittent power from solar and wind more cost
effective. [74]CNET also has coverage
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[81]MIT had recently developed special glass panels that concentrate
light 40 times standard sunlight before delivery directly to the cell.
They expect this technology to be commercialized in three years.
[82]The system is so simple to manufacturer that the inventors expect
it to be deployed within 3 years at little cost over standard window
costs.
[83]In other solar power news, from the New Scientist magazine, a new
material could harness both visible and infrared photons, so it has a
theoretical maximum efficiency of 63%, it creators say, and should
give significantly better real-world performance. Current solar cells
absorb visible light and have a maximum efficiency of about 40%. They
add titanium and vanadium atoms into a conventional semiconductor,
altering its electronic properties to create the intermediate energy
level. It may prove challenging to insert enough titanium or vanadium
to form a properly functioning intermediate energy level in the
semiconductor.
The hard part of getting water to split is not the hydrogen --
platinum as a catalyst works fine for the hydrogen. But platinum
works very poorly for oxygen, making you use much more energy,"
said MIT chemistry professor Daniel Nocera. "What we have done is
made a catalyst work for the oxygen part without any extra energy.
In fact, with our catalyst almost 100 percent of the current used
for electrolysis goes into making oxygen and hydrogen."
MIT's patented formulation of cobalt phosphate was dissolved in
water. When the electrical current is passed through it to initiate
electrolysis, the catalyst attached itself to the oxygen electrode
to increase its efficiency. When the electrical current was turned
off, the cobalt phosphate dissolved back into water.
Nickel oxide catalysts are currently used to boost the efficiency
of electrolyzers, and they worked equally well in MIT's
formulation, Nocera acknowledged. He added that the toxicity of
nickel oxide forces the use of expensive, hermetically-sealed water
containers. MIT's patented catalyst formulation is "green," Nocera
said, and can be used in inexpensive open containers.
FURTHER READING
[84]Thin film solar continuing to improve and likely to sustain 50%
year over year increases in deployment for five more years
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[102]Two genes found that make Schizophrenia 15 times more likely
[103]Genetics is believed to be a main cause for 70% of schizophrenia.
If gene therapy can fix the genetic factors then schizophrenia could
be reduced by 70%. This would save tens of billions of dollars each
year in the USA and hundreds of billions of dollars around the world.
It would reduce homelessness by up to 20% and reduce the number of
people in prison and in hospitals.
Schizophrenia is a devastating disorder for most people who are
afflicted, and very costly for families and society. The overall U.S.
2002 cost of schizophrenia was estimated to be $62.7 billion, with
$22.7 billion excess direct health care cost ($7.0 billion outpatient,
$5.0 billion drugs, $2.8 billion inpatient, $8.0 billion long-term
care). (source: Analysis Group, Inc.)
The approximate number of people in the United States suffering from:
Schizophrenia: Over 2.2 million people
Multiple Sclerosis: 400,000 people
Insulin-dependent Diabetes: 350,000 people
Muscular Dystrophy: 35,000 people
The Prevalance Rate for schizophrenia is approximately 1.1% of the
population over the age of 18 (source: NIMH) or, in other words, at
any one time as many as 51 million people worldwide suffer from
schizophrenia, including;
6 to 12 million people in China (a rough estimate based on the
population)
4.3 to 8.7 million people in India (a rough estimate based on the
population)
2.2 million people in USA
285,000 people in Australia
Over 280,000 people in Canada
Over 250,000 diagnosed cases in Britain
[104]Approximately 200,000 individuals with schizophrenia or
manic-depressive illness are homeless, constituting one-third of the
approximately 600,000 homeless population (total homeless population
statistic based on data from Department of Health and Human Services).
Approximately:
6% are homeless or live in shelters
6% live in jails or prisons
5% to 6% live in Hospitals
10% live in Nursing homes
25% live with a family member
28% are living independently
20% live in Supervised Housing (group homes, etc.)
[105]Environmental factors that increase the risk of schizophrenia.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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