[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 16:09:14 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]Achieving a Mundane Technological Transhuman Singularity
2. [4]Miniture scanning electron microscopes on a chip
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]Achieving a Mundane Technological Transhuman Singularity
[8]Some people have criticized the technological Singularity and
Transhumanism because of the upside being things that they do not
believe can be achieved.Also, the primary technologies that are often
described as enabling the Singularity and Transhumanism are Molecular
Nanotechnology and greater than human intelligence general AI. There
has been virtually no effort or money spent to develop diamondoid
molecular nanotechnology and greater than human AGI is something that
will be a rapid shift. For AGI, one can imagine the situation before
Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in chess. A couple of years before it
happened many people thought it would be long time before a computer
won at chess and many were surprised when it did happen.
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This site does not agree that Molecular Nanotechnology (MNT) is not
achievable or that greater than human intelligence AI is not
achievable. However, let us examine how some of the primary
Singularity and Transhuman goals can be achieved even without
Molecular Nanotechnology or greater than human intelligence AGI.
The goals, with the first blurb the term used by a critic (Richard
Jones for the first three and then goals many have derided for the
later goals and goals from Eric Drexler's website related to MNT), and
what follows as a more detailed description of a precise and
measurable goal.
1. End scarcity : Relative economic abundance with every living person
having an personal resources at the affluent level of a current US
citizen. $250,000 per person per year in purchasing power parity
income. [The income level that Obama would want to tax more heavily if
he become President]. No shortages of any basic need water, food,
medical care [equal to that which is achieving the medical results
currently affordable to an affluent person now] and energy [currently
a US citizen uses an average of 13,000 kwh per year for electricity
and three times that for transportation and a share of industrial
energy usage. So abundance is 100,000 kwh for every person and
assuming a future population of 10 billion is 1000 trillion kwh.
[15]A manufacturing and construction revolution can be achieved with
[16]printable buildings, [17]inflatable electric cars, printable
electronics and advanced automated rapid manufacturing.
[18]Computer simulation and detailed modeling and other enabling
technology will enable the revolution.
[19]Paper stronger than cast iron made from plant cellulose is here
and will make manufacturing far cheaper.
[20]Stem cell meat factories, advanced aquaculture and vertical
farming and more advanced genetically engineered food will enable an
abundance of food. The vertical farming would be further enabled by
the printing building technology. Aquaculture (fish farming) already
provide over half of the world's fish.
For water [21]desalination is already very advanced and it is becoming
more [22]energy efficient and cheaper. More abundant and affordable
energy helps to create more water from desalinization.
[23]The mass produced uranium hydride nuclear reactor would be part of
a relatively mundane energy abundance solution. These reactors would
have far less waste since 50 times more fuel would be burned
generating energy. [24]Molten salt reactors are even more efficient
and could burn 99% of the uranium and plutonium in the reactor.
2. Eradicate death : Achieving actuarial escape velocity whereby life
expectancy increases at greater than one year for each year that
passes. No age related disease caused deaths. An increased level of
increased physical regeneration and restoration. Really bad accidents
or destructive weapons would still be able to kill. Advanced
technology could create a precise copy of a person, but whether this
will be done for ethical and societal reasons or whether the copy is
the person is not discussed. A copy of "the mind" could be created in
another substrate (ie. not a flesh and blood person but a computer
than simulates "the mind").
[25]The SENS project has raised over ten million dollars and is
launching projects for each of the seven parts of the initial program
to substantial extend human lives.
[26]Calorie restriction mimicking drugs could be available within five
years according to a leading researcher and should provide 3-13 years
of increased life span
[27]Treatments to boost the human immune system against cancer and
[28]effective and cheap early detection of cancer cells will enable a
massive decrease in cancer deaths.
[29]Regenerative medicine is making substantial advances with stem
cells, tissue generation, and increasing the regenerative capability
in humans to be more like salamanders (able to regrow limbs.) This
research is well funded by the US defence department with the AFIRM
(Armed Forces Institute of Regenerative Medicine funded for $250
million for five years) project.
3. Eliminate the bungled mechanisms that introduce imperfections into
the human body: Enhance various performance aspects of the human body.
Various medical and mechanical enhancements will be discussed which
will be significant advances to existing performance enhancement.
[30]Effective and safe myostatin inhibition will likely be developed
which will enable most people to become several times stronger and
closer to the best levels achievable now (one in one million people
already have myostatin inhibited and it is four times as effective as
high doses of steroids).
[31]Cognitive enhancement is already here and will become more
effective.
[32]Craig Venter, billionaire and enabler of new gene therapy and
synthetic biology technology, has indicated that very strong cognitive
enhancement is possible, desirable and a goal that he wants to
achieve.
From the Eric Drexler website - things that MNT would enable.
- desktop computers with a billion processors
- inexpensive, efficient solar energy systems
- medical devices able to destroy pathogens and repair tissues
- materials 100 times stronger than steel
4. Blood stream robots or achieving the goals (cellular surgery and
repair) for which blood stream robots were proposed using other means.
[medical devices able to destroy pathogens and repair tissues]
[33]Nanoparticles, existing blood stream robots and guideable
containers and cellular repair are being proven and people are working
to improve and deploy them.
5. Materials 100 times stronger than steel [cheap and commonly used] :
Production or access to diamond and carbon nanotubes increased by 1000
times and using diamond as a primary material for house sized objects
and for electronics.
[34]Carbon nanotube production will be ramped up which will [35]become
very cheap and will be deployed [36]widely
[37]Very large (multi-carat) diamonds can be produced very fast since
2005 Current methods can produce, three-dimensional growth of
colorless single-crystal diamond in the inch-range (~300 carat) is
achievable. [38]Large scale production and scaling up diamond creation
is an active and well funded area.
6. Open access to space [within the solar system for human and robotic
travel and small probes up to a significant fraction of light speed
for interstellar access]
[39]Ten near term developments for greatly improved space access were
covered here
[40]Mirrored laser arrays are achievable with refinement of current
technology as is nuclear propulsion.
7. Pollution "elimination" : Reduction of pollution into the
environment and nearly complete elimination of deaths caused by
pollution.
The use of the uranium hydride and molten salt reactor would greatly
reduce the use of fossil fuels.
[41]This sites proposed energy plan is a fast, affordable, and low
technology development risk path to eliminating fossil fuels and
enabling abundant clean energy.
8. Desktop computers with one billion processors (or performance
greater than one billion of todays processors)
[42]500 cores in new teraflop chips for less than $200 for the
processor.
[43]Berkeley and Tensilica already working towards energy efficient
and affordable exaflop computers for the 2015-2017 timeframe
[44]Design conferences have been held to work out details on zettaflop
computers
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[62]Miniture scanning electron microscopes on a chip
[63]The UK's NFAB has a new sub-miniature scanning electron microscope
which is a completely new concept in electron microscopy. The
microscope is 5 µm long and has atomic resolution (2 Å) at 500 eV
energy and 10 nA of current. The low energy means it can identify
single atoms on a surface as well as being able to make holograms of
large molecules.
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It has patented an enabling technology* which will allow a
generation of miniature scanning electron microscopes,
multiple-beam lithography machines and focussed ion beam millers to
be manufactured. These are currently under development and testing
at Salford University and various other European Universities and
nanotechnology companies under an EU-funded collaborative research
grant (CRAFT).
This is not useful for actually manipulating the molecules just for
looking, but cheaper and better resolution would still be nice.
[70]They claim the microscope will have 0.01 nm resolution. Instead of
firing electrons from a tungsten filament, it will shoot them from a
single atom at the peak of a tiny gold pyramid with a height of around
100 nanometres. The beam will be focused as it passes through a 2
micrometer hole in a silicon chip before it hits the target below.
The electron beam itself is just 10 micrometers long in Eastham's new
microscope - the beam of a standard SEM is around 60 centimetres long.
The electrostatic lens used in the new SEM still contains
imperfections that will limit the microscope's resolution, says
Eastham, but the effect should be much smaller. Eastham's approach
produces a beam with around 100 times less energy than usual in an
SEM. Cutting power consumption addresses one of the greatest costs of
SEM technology, he claims.
The new design will lack the large depth of field that lets SEMs
produce images with a 3D appearance, due to the design of its
aperture. Eastham's team should have a prototype of the nano-SEM
completed within 3 to 6 months, he says. The microscope is expected to
be available for sale within two years for a cost of approximatively
$195,000. Current SEMs with a resolution of 0.05 nanometers can cost
around $8 million. The price would be 40 times less and the resolution
would be improved by four to five times.
"It is now possible to 'aberration correct' electron optical lenses,"
he says, which allows the best, current, multi-million dollar SEMs to
reach about 0.04 nm resolution.
FURTHER READING
[71]Roland Piquipaille has coverage as well
[72]Sky news coverage of the NFAB
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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