[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
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Tue Aug 19 12:15:56 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]D-day and World War II Context
2. [4]Seeds of a new manufacturing revolution
3. [5]Built for Speed: Printing Buildings
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]D-day and World War II Context
[9]June 6, 1944, H-Hour was 6:30 am. It was D-day
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The assault was conducted in two phases: an air assault landing of
American and British airborne divisions shortly after midnight, and an
amphibious landing of Allied infantry and armoured divisions on the
coast of France commencing at 06:30 British Double Summer Time.
The operation was the largest single-day invasion of all time, with
over 130,000 troops landed on June 6, 1944. 195,700 Allied naval and
merchant navy personnel were involved. The landings took place along a
stretch of the Normandy coast divided into five sections: Gold, Juno,
Omaha, Sword and Utah.
D-Day/normandy Invasion Casualties
United States: 1,465 dead, 5,138 wounded, missing or captured;
United Kingdom: 2,700 dead, wounded or captured;
Canada: 500 dead; 621 wounded or captured;
Total:10,264
The combined deaths of this one battle are more than the fatal losses
of America and its allies after five years of the Iraq war.
Nazi Germany: Between 4,000 and 9,000 dead, wounded or captured
By D-Day 157 German divisions were stationed in the Soviet Union, 6 in
Finland, 12 in Norway, 6 in Denmark, 9 in Germany, 21 in the Balkans,
26 in Italy and 59 in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. However,
these statistics are somewhat misleading since a significant number of
the divisions in the east were depleted; German records indicate that
the average personnel complement was at about 50% in the spring of
1944.
the Importance of the Soviet Union in winning World War 2
Not to diminish the great effort of the USA in WW2 and the great
sacrifice of D-day, but it is important to know the historical
contribution of the Soviet Union in WW2.
A great deal of importance for the success of D-day has been placed on
tricking Hitler into placing more of his troops at Calais. It was also
important that the 12the Panzer division did not move quickly into the
conflict. Without the eastern front drain and commitment of divisions
there would have been more armor and divisions all over France and
everywhere else.
[16]At the beginning of June 1944 the 12th Panzer division was
declared ready for combat operations. The Division's tank strength at
this time was 81 Panther ausf A / G and 104 Panzer IV ausf H / J
tanks. The division was also equipped with Jagdpanzer IV tank
destroyers, three prototype Wirbelwind flakpanzer vehicles, along with
a number of 20 mm, 37 mm and 88 mm flak guns, Hummel, Wespe and sIG 33
self-propelled guns and regular towed artillery pieces.
Tanks on the east front peaked at 5,202 in November 1944.
So a huge credit for a successful invasion is that Soviets had
regrouped from losses in 1941 and turned things around in 1942.
[17]The Soviets lost 26 million people in the war. About 11 million of
those were military losses. The Red Army lost 3 million men in the
summer of 1941 (killed or missing). They lost about 4.5 million in the
last 6 months of 1941.
Stalins Keys to Victory by William Dunn details the amazing
recruitment effort to rebuild and replace the Red Army three times
over 18 months.
IFRAME:
[18]http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=elegantconsul-20&o=1&p=12&l=st1&mode=
books&search=stalins%20keys%20to%20victory&fc1=000000<1=&lc1=3366FF&
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The [19]United States lost 418,500 people over the course of World War
2.
[20]The Eastern front was the largest theater of war in history and
was notorious for its unprecedented ferocity, destruction, and immense
loss of life. More people fought and died on the Eastern Front than in
all other theaters of World War II combined. With over 30 million
dead, many of them civilians, the Eastern Front has been called a war
of extermination.
Over the course of WW2, the US mobilized an [21]army of 100 divisions.
The Germans [22]had mobilized 400 divisions.
The Soviets [23]had mobilized 700 divisions.
The Soviet losses in 1941-1943 would not have been so severe if Stalin
had not purged his experienced military officers in 1938.
The Soviets might not have been able to motivate and recruit so
successfully for the defence of Mother Russia if not for the brutality
and harsh treatment of the nazis against the one third of Russia that
they conquered in 1941.
The Soviet wars preceding WW2 left a larger reserve of military
veterans to rebuild the Red Army after the devastating initial losses.
The Americans helped supply gear with the lend lease program for
trucks etc.. but the Soviets made their own guns and tanks. Factories
the American engineers helped build in the 1930s. The soviets had
learned the lessons of mass production to only build as good as you
need. Tanks only lasted about 6 months before being destroyed. So it
did not matter if engine was poorly made and would breakdown in 2-5
years. The Tank would not last that long.
The recruitment and production effort to get the people and weapons
put together while fighting the most fierce battles in history is an
interesting and informative study.
The USA probably could still have won WW2 if the Soviets had been
defeated and not been able to regroup after 1941 or lost Moscow and
Stalingrad, but it would have been far more costly and the USA would
have to have an army 4-6 times larger than the one they did. Or the US
would have had to wait until 1945 when they developed the nuclear
bomb.
FURTHER READING
[24]Operation Barbarossa, the initial German invasion of the Soviet
Union. Germany had 4.5 million men.
In 1941, the Soviet armed forces in the western districts were
outnumbered by their German counterparts, 4.3 million Axis soldiers
vs. 2.6 million Soviet soldiers. The overall size of the Soviet armed
forces in early July 1941, though, amounted to a little more than 5
million men, 2.6 million in the west, 1.8 million in the far east,
with the rest being deployed or training elsewhere
Soviets: At least 802,191 killed, unknown wounded, and some 3,300,000
captured.
[25]Battle of Stalingrad
Germans: 750,000 killed or wounded, 250,000 captured
Soviets: 700,000 killed, wounded or captured, 40,000+ civilian dead
[26]The Battle of Moscow
Germans: 248,000-400,000 casualties
Soviets: 650,000-1,280,000 casualties
[27]Battle of Kursk
Germans: 50,000 dead, wounded, or captured
Soviets: 500,000 dead, wounded, or captured
[28]Autumn and winter 1943 on the eastern front
[29]Battle of Crimea 8 April 1944 - 12 May 1944
Soviet: 85,000 all causes
German/Romanian: 97,000 all causes
The Germans were already getting pushed back quite a ways by D-Day. On
the US side, by June 4th 1944 all of Italy had been captured (campaign
started with invasion of Sicily July 1943) and before that North
Africa.
[30]Belorussian Offensive. June 22, 1944 Two weeks after D-day.
Germans: 300,000-400,000 killed, wounded and taken prisoner.
Soviets: 60,000 KIA/MIA, 110,000 WIA/sick
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[48]Seeds of a new manufacturing revolution
A transformation in the pace of economic growth can be achieved even
without nanofactories. These pre-nanofactory methods would transition
well to a world with [49]nanofactories when they do arrive.
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A coordinated effort by research, companies and government could be
made to plan and develop Rapid Automated Manufacturing by 2030. There
could be an increase in economic growth into the 10-20% per year range
even for developed countries like the USA. Technology roadmaps and
planning would be needed to perfect materials, supply chains, real
time monitoring, approval processes and deployment of the technologies
and methods listed below, the world could transition to radically
faster economic growth. It would take a lot of work to get everything
coordinated to have this effort scale and transform each of the
industries in order for nationwide growth rate to move a bunch. It
would be exactly like the societal transformation to mass production
and industrialization back in the early 1900s. Education, Industry and
government and society would all have to adapt. The carrot is after
you do it in a few decades your nation is a hundred times richer than
it would have been if it had not been done.
[56]Contour crafting (scaling up inkjet/rapid prototyping up to making
buildings) Use cement as the ink. Layer by layer additive
construction. 200 times
faster than conventional methods. 5 times lower cost for construction.
It can use insitu (dirt and water that is already on site) materials.
Adding a step for applying spray on solar power would also be an
evolutionary improvement. (It would also be [57]safer than having
workers install rooftop solar panels.)
Print private houses first, then multi-story buildings and then
bridges, roads and everything else.
[58]Inflatable electric cars. Flatship cars from a factory like Ikea
furniture and could be as cheap as $2500 for an environmentally
friendly car.
GE OLEDs produced roll to roll
[59]Reel to reel production of electronics can be hundreds to
thousands of times faster than current lithography factories for
making computers and factories for making electronics, televisions,
video monitors.
[60]Printing presses can get up to speeds of 2500-3000 feet per
minute.
[61]Reprap is an inexpensive fabrication system that can now
self-replicate. The machine can make another copy of itself and
construct other devices.
[62]Fabbers and scanners now
[63]Rapid manufacturing now
[64]Lunar dust + epoxy + carbon nanotubes = lunar cement
Note: only water is whatever is in the epoxy. New materials can help
enable wider use of rapid automated manufacturing.
FURTHER READING
[65]Singularity lite - accelerated technology development for
achieving increased levels of economic growth
[66]Intermediate systems from now to nanofactories
Desktop Factory says per-cubic-inch printing costs will hover
somewhere around $1. The Desktop Factory 3D printer builds robust,
composite plastic parts that can be sanded and painted when
desired. Their goal by 2011 is to have their 3D printer below
$1000.
[67]target=blank>Predictions for 2016
[68]Rapid prototyping at wikipedia
[69]MEMS robot precursors to nanobots
[70]Rapid manufacturing at wikipedia
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[88]Built for Speed: Printing Buildings
Contour Crafting is an effort to scale up rapid
prototyping/manufacturing (a billion dollar industry to make 3
dimensional parts) and inkjet printing techniques to the scale of
building multi-story buildings and vehicles. The process could
accelerate the trillion dollar (US only) construction industry by 200
times. Projections indicate costs will be around one fifth as much as
conventional construction. (Land prices are unchanged, so the actual
prices of homes would not change as much in say Hawaii, Tokyo,
Manhattan or San Francisco). Using this process, a single house or a
colony of houses, each with possibly a different design, may be
automatically constructed in a single run, embedded in each house all
the conduits for electrical, plumbing and air-conditioning. [H/T to a
reader Bonesteel] [89]Contour crafting could be one part of a new
manufacturing revolution
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The machine will cost between $500K to $700K for average size (2000 sq
ft -- 200 m2) detached houses. This is not much given that a concrete
pump truck is now $300k-$400K. Note that with one machine numerous
homes can be built. The first commercial machines to be available this
year, 2008. The machine will be collapsible to form into an easy truck
load. The unloading and setup will take between 1-2 hours.
[96]Behrokh Khoshnevis is the visionary who has been driving this
concept. He is the Director of the Center for Rapid Automated
Fabrication Technologies (CRAFT) and Director of Manufacturing
Engineering Graduate Program at USC.
Initial plan is to use the technology for emergency shelters and
low-income housing in underdeveloped countries (Mexico, with the
demand for nearly 500,000 houses per year, seems to be a good starting
choice for implementation), almost immediately after its development
they will address local building codes for commercial deployment of CC
in the US.
Because of the unprecedented speed of CC construction, attendant
improvements in the construction inspection process will be required.
They plan to develop advanced sensory systems and information
technologies for automated real-time inspection and feedback to
municipal computers overseeing ongoing CC construction activities at
various locations.
Competing Construction Automation
There are two categories of automation considered by the Japanese
construction companies. The first uses single task robots that can
replace simple labor
activities at the construction sites. Single task robots can be
classified by four different types- concrete floor finishing, spray
painting, tile inspection, and material handling.
The second category consists of fully automated systems that can
construct high
raised steel buildings or steel reinforced concrete buildings using
prefabricated
components. An example of this approach is [97]Big-Canopy, which is
the world's first automated construction system for building a
precisely defined concrete structure and has four independent masts
supporting an overhead crane which delivers components at the control
of a simple joystick. All tasks are scheduled and controlled by a
centralised information control system. The introduction of robotics
at construction sites has contributed to productivity, safety, and
quality improvements. Yet, the contribution of robotics at current
levels is not revolutionary and current automation approaches are
still geared toward conventional processes. Automating conventional
processes (such as using a brick laying robot) is invariably
expensive, hence the associated cost saving is minimal. Fast changing
construction requirements and project complexities create complicated
requirements and exceptional challenges for automation technology to
meet.
The Big Canopy construction system can be divided into the following
subsystems:
· a roof supported by four tower crane posts, which are situated
outside the building
· a complex hoist system with three cranes mounted against the roof
· a jib crane on the roof to mount and to dismantle the tower crane
posts
· a high-speed construction lift to all floors
· all components bar-coded for easy identification
· a material management system to manage the flow of materials and
components
The Big Canopy automated construction system ensures good working and
environmental conditions, shorter construction time (about 13% less),
less waste and improved overall productivity (0.9% less cost).
There are [98]Prefabricated homes
[99]Modular homes
[100]Panelized homes
Panelized home construction can complete the project in 90 days from
the time we begin to dig. Custom plans generally take four-to-six
months from start of construction to finish. The weather-tight shell
finished in days, as opposed to the many weeks required with "site
framing."
So all prior efforts to improve building construction are vastly
inferior to contour construction if contour construction delivers on
its goals.
Three subsystems are required to build a complete house in one day.
The Extrudable Materials and Fabrication (EMF) thrust will research
and develop materials, extrusion systems, and structures built by
extrusion of materials. The Modular Components and Assembly (MCA)
thrust will research and develop the non-extrudable components
required by the grand challenge such as reinforcement, electrical,
plumbing, and sensor systems and on the robots required both to
assemble these components and to deploy the extrusion systems
developed by the first thrust. The Integrated Software Systems (ISS)
thrust will research and develop the software needed to go from design
through construction, including planning and controlling the behavior
of the multitude of robots to be developed by the previous thrust, and
providing the logistical support required for constructing a house in
a day, or beyond this to constructing a full community in a small
number of days.
Environmental benefits
Globally more than 40 percent of all raw materials are consumed in the
construction process. Each of the 6 million new houses built in the
United States have 3-7 tons of waste from construction.
FURTHER READING
[101]This concept is like the inflatable electric car idea. Rethinking
the process for how a major segment of our economy works to enable
cost breakthroughs.
Inflatable cars and scaling up printer technology for making buildings
are the kind of powerful ideas that could enable [102]acceleration of
economic growth even without successful development super technologies
(like fusion, molecular nanotechnology or super artificial
intelligence). It is similar to how Henry Ford's mass production
methods accelerated economic growth at the beginning of 1900s.
However, there is no reason we cannot re-invent the car and
construction and develop super technologies. So even without molecular
nanotechnology there
could be a step up in economic growth rate with ideas like this and
inflatable electric cars. These ideas are also very compatible with a
nanofactory world.
[103]Youtube Contour Crafting videos
[EMBED]
[EMBED]
[104]Center for Rapid Automated Fabrication Technologies at the
University of Southern California
The goal of the Center for Rapid Automated Fabrication Technologies
(CRAFT) is to develop the science and engineering needed for rapid
automated fabrication of objects of various size up to mega-scale
structures such as, boats, industrial objects, public art and whole
building structures.
[105]Selective Inhibition sintering (SIS) method is capable of making
plastic as well as metallic parts without the use of laser.
[106]Megascale fabrication article
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More Recent Articles
* [124]True three dimensional display.
* [125]Breakthroughs with cheaper and better performing batteries
* [126]Inflatable electric cars could be cheap, safe and have long
range
* [127]Carbon nanotubes + epoxy + lunar dust = lunar concrete
* [128]Carnival of Space Week 57
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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