[tt] Next Big Future - 6 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 12:02:32 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 6 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 6 new articles
1. [3]True three dimensional display.
2. [4]Breakthroughs with cheaper and better performing batteries
3. [5]Inflatable electric cars could be cheap, safe and have long
range
4. [6]Carbon nanotubes + epoxy + lunar dust = lunar concrete
5. [7]Carnival of Space Week 57
6. [8]2016 Next Big Predictions
7. [9]More Recent Articles
8. [10]Search Next Big Future
[11]True three dimensional display.
72 inch diagonal Holovizio720RC display
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[17]Ads delivered by FeedBlitz
[18]European Union funded Holografika is offering superior 3D displays
that provide the full 3D information to the viewer. (Most other 3D
displays provide partial information). The Holovizio product is not
just using 2D images and visual tricks, it is providing a real 3d
image.
[19]Benefits:
- The pictures don't "jump" between the views, horizontal perspective
- Numbers of viewers are not limited.
- No discomfort, seasickness or disorientation
- Not necessary to stand in one point, free motion possible
- No delays or latency
- users do not need goggles
Holovizio 128 WLD a 32 inch diagonal display
[20]The Coherent project researchers that developed this technology
made exciting advances in enabling applications that show the system's
real potential.
- raw data from medical imaging devices to create 3-D models of
anatomy.
- CRS4 also developed rendering and visualisation software that may
reveal the artistic secrets of the great masters, like Michelangelo. A
scan of his famous David revealed that the eyes diverge.
- holographic systems for oil exploration and for designing cars
FURTHER INFORMATION
[21]Link to a video demonstration of the holovizio technology
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[38]Rate 'True three dimensional display.'
[39]Breakthroughs with cheaper and better performing batteries
[40]Hitachi Maxell Ltd (6810.T) gained 6.5 percent. A spokesman there
confirmed a Nikkei evening edition report that it is aiming to
commercialise a longer-lasting [perhaps 20 times longer], cheaper
lithium-ion battery in the next three to four years that substitutes
expensive cobalt with manganese.
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[46]Ads delivered by FeedBlitz
[47]Hybrid Technologies has new superlattice li-ion batteries that can
power an electric car 200 miles on a single charge The battery can
operate at a higher than normal voltage range of 4V to 2.3V.
- High Capacity 170 Ah/kg or more.
- Non-toxic and disposable.
- Less expensive.
[48]An update on the adoption of electric bicycles and scooters in
China
The smallest motors produced about 100 Watts (W) of power, but the
majority of electric bicycles used motors in the 180-250W range. In
Suzhou City, about fifty miles outside of Shanghai, electric
bicycles and scooters outnumbered passenger automobiles by at least
ten to one. Scooters had somewhat larger motors, but none of them
produced more than one horsepower (746W). Compare that to American
automobiles producing at least 100 horsepower, and you can begin to
see why electric bicycles are such efficient vehicles compared to
other alternatives. Many people rode small folding electric
bicycles with 16" or 20" wheels for easy storage in small
apartments.
Taiwan rode small two-stroke scooters. When I asked why this was
so, people confirmed my suspicions that Chinese people do not, in
general buy e-bikes and e-scooters due to any sense of
environmental altruism. No... they buy electric because a gas
scooter costs five times as much as an e-bike does.
[49]There is an estimated 60 million e-bikes in China now. Probably
25-30 million will be added in 2008 and 2009.
RELATED READING
[50]The latest US statistics show a substantial drop in SUV sales and
a [51]shift to purchases of more fuel efficient cars
- For the first time since 1992, the vehicle most sold in the United
States in May was not an SUV or light truck
- the two most popular cars were the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla,
which helped Asian auto makers surpass the top three U.S. automakers
in the U.S. market for the first time ever
- sales of SUVs and trucks having dipped below car sales in March and
April, the May ratio of cars to trucks was 57:43
- U.S. auto sales fell 30 percent in May, and total 2008 sales may be
below 15 million vehicles, compared to 17.4 in 2000
Gasoline usage and green house gas emissions could drop in half over
the decade or so.
[52]A survey of electric vehicle plans
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[69]Rate 'Breakthroughs with cheaper and better performing batteries'
[70]Inflatable electric cars could be cheap, safe and have long range
[71]Inflatable electric cars could have 2500 mile range using a single
hot-swap XPack Multi-CoreTM Battery/Fuel Cell power plant. You would
use the battery/fuel cell and then it would be changed out when you
needed to "refuel/recharge". It will take until at least 2010 for the
cars to be fully certified and placed into high volume production.
Price targets are less than $10,000 and one model to compete with the
[72]Tata Nano, which costs $2500. This is a radical re-thinking of how
to build a car that appears likely to radically lower costs, safety
and fully enable electric cars with no core features (driving range,
basic highway speed, cost, safety) that are inferior to current
combustion cars.
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The inflatable cars could be flat shipped like furniture from Ikea.
The key advantages over competitors are that these are the safest,
longest range, lowest cost vehicles which can be flat-pack shipped
directly to users.
XP Technology is an electric powered automobile technology startup
with disruptive patent protected technologies utilizing safe
non-grid-connected energy cassettes to produce the electricity to run
a polymer airbeam, carbon fiber constructed ultra light and safer
bodied automobiles priced at very low invoices with extremely high
energy efficiency.
UPDATE: [79]An update on the adoption of electric bicycles and
scooters in China
Taiwanese people ride small two-stroke scooters (most were purchased
before the availability of good electric bikes). China has 60 million
electric bike riders now (out of 450-500 million unpowered bike
riders). When asked why this was so, people confirmed suspicions that
Chinese people do not, in general buy e-bikes and e-scooters due to
any sense of environmental altruism. No... they buy electric because a
gas scooter costs five times as much as an e-bike does.
So the low price of the safe, cheap, long distance inflatable electric
car will be key to widespread adoption of electric cars. Providing a
better value for the money will enable the painless transition to
environmentally friendly transportation.
FURTHER READING
[80]the products of the XP Vehicle company
[81]Frequently asked questions on the XP vehicles
It should take two average adults, with a high school education, less
than two hours to inflate and unpack the vehicle.
Fully Assembled option likely: fleet departments and regional
retailers will be purchasing sets of the vehicles and will likely
offer them local and assembled.
They are targeting all vehicles for sub $10K pricing targets with one
vehicle targeted at a record breaking low price in the Southeast Asian
market.
Power sources: Massed battery arrays, fuel cells and fuel cell/battery
hybrid plants.
Can the polymer version blow away? They have a special ballast and
aerodynamic design set of features which makes the car very stable.
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[98]Rate 'Inflatable electric cars could be cheap, safe and have long
range'
[99]Carbon nanotubes + epoxy + lunar dust = lunar concrete
[100]To make a 2.4-metre mirror like Hubble's, Chen estimates the
recipe would call for about 600 kilograms (1300 pounds) of Moon dust,
60 kg (130 pounds) of epoxy, 6 kg (13 pounds) of carbon nanotubes and
less than a gram of aluminium.
So bring 66kg of material to make something about ten times as heavy.
Besides making giant telescopes, the lunar concrete can be used to
form other structures on the moon. A 50 meter telescope would still
need many tons of material but ten times less than before. Telescopes
could combine and image continents on earthlike worlds in other solar
systems.
Peter Chen of [101]NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt,
Maryland, US, has devised a simple method to create a concrete-like
substance using a mixture of carbon nanotubes, epoxy and a crushed
rock material that NASA uses as a stand-in for Moon dust.
Using the mixture, they built a 30-centimetre disc. Then they added
more liquid epoxy to its surface and spun it, coating it with
aluminium in a vacuum.
They believe the process could be scaled up to [102]produce 20- to
50-metre-wide telescopes on the Moon. Universe Today discusses the
possibilities:
With a stable platform, and no atmosphere to absorb or blur
starlight, the monster scope could record the spectra of extra
solar terrestrial planets and detect atmospheric biomarkers such as
ozone and methane. Two or more such telescopes spanning the surface
of the Moon can work together to take direct images of Earth-like
planets around nearby stars and look for brightness variations that
come from oceans and continents.
The team has yet to determine the type of devices that might be used
to spin the mirrors, and the telescopes would need detectors,
actuators, steel support structures and other components not made from
Moon dust.
Carbon nanotube prices are falling because of [103]new larger scale
factories and new [104]cheaper processes
[105]Multi-wall carbon Nanotube production has had dramatic price
decreases (Arkema, Bayer Material Sciences, Showa Denko), down to
$150/kg for semi-industrial applications [Feb 2008]. The run for
industrial CNT production plants has started in order to achieve a
sustainable business with the commercialization of these high-tech
materials with a mid-term price target of $45/kg.
This on-site composite material to build habitats for the astronauts,
and mirrors to collect sunlight for solar-power.
[106]Website of the American Astronomical Society who hosted the
conference where this work was presented
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[124]Carnival of Space Week 57
[125]The Carnival of Space 57 is up at Out of the Cradle
[126]This site contributed an article about some problems with lorentz
propulsion tests but success with the SpaceX Falcon 9
[127]International Space Development day 1
[128]International Space Development day 2
[129]International Space Development day 3
[130]Babe in the Universe also had International space development
coverage
[131]There is covereage of the Mars Phoenix lander
[132]Check out the carnival for more.
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[150]2016 Next Big Predictions
This site predicts that 2016 will be year of significant milestones
for technology and other world changes. [151]A prediction on a
relatively trivial topic. Tokyo will hold the 2016 summer olympics.
Three other cities are still in the running. 2016 will likely be the
end of the second presidential term for the president elected in 2008.
Most presidents are two term presidents.
[152]2016 is a likely year when China's growing economy and
strengthening currency combine to enable it to pass the size of the US
economy. This is a milestone for change that has been evolving for
decades, but will have ripened by passing a key metric.
Energy
[153]Prediction by 2016: Over 100 new Conventional nuclear reactors
will add over 120GW of nuclear power. 1000 billion kwh added (Some
power from uprates of existing reactors in France, USA and other
places)
[154]Prediction by 2016: 100 GW of solar power will be added, but that
will generate less power than the additional conventional nuclear
power because of lower capacity factor
[155]Advanced thermoelectronics will be providing energy savings on
car air conditioning and electronics by 2010 and [156]providing more
efficient co-generation for cars and trucks by 2014 Thermoelectrics
will also provide more efficient full size refrigerators (currently
used in beer coolers)
Prediction: Durable [able to operate at higher temperatures] ZT 10+
thermoelectronics will be able to capture 35% of the waste heat of
nuclear, coal and natural gas reactors. This will be deployed to
capture over 50GW of power by the end of 2016.
There will also be deployment on freight trucks to increase fuel
efficiency by over 10%.
[157]2012 first completion of a uranium hydride mass producible
nuclear reactor
Prediction by 2016: 200+ of the 25 MW electricity and 70 MW thermal
reactors deployed. Total 5GW electrical and 14GW thermal power.
Primarily used for oilsand and oilshale oil recovery.
[158]The 335MW IRIS (International Reactor Innovative & Secure) will
likely be first deployed in 2015 The first IRIS unit will take three
years to construct with a subsequent reduction to only two years.
[159]By 2016: 30GW of geothermal power added worldwide
[160]Prediction: Inertial confinement fusion will be shown to achieve
greater than breakeven energy by 2013. Deployments will be limited in
2016 due to the need to refine the systems for commercialization.
Tri-alpha energy, Focus fusion and the General Fusion approaches will
have successful prototypes or will have become dead ends.
Prediction: Over 1.5 million bopd from the US portion of the Bakken
oilfield by 2016.
Prediction: Over 2 million bopd will be added to production in the
oilsands.
Prediction: [161]Biofuels will be over 60 billion gallons per year in
2016 [more than the UN prediction. Triple instead of double current
production] The 60 billion gallans is equal to 4.5 million bopd. Algae
oil production, conversion of waste into oil and cellulose biofuels
will produce more.
[162]Blacklight power and cold fusion recently had claims which if
true could have substantial impact by 2016.
Computers, cars and medicine
Prediction: 100 petaflop computer by the end of 2016
Prediction: Over 20 million hybrid and electric cars worldwide by
2016.
A few thousand will be 175 mpge race cars like the one here.
Prediction: 80% fewer deaths from cancer.
[163]Biomarkers and imaging for cheap and successful and widely
deployed cancer testing.
[164]GIFT cancer treatment
[165]Prediction: By 2016 higher than room temperature superconductors
will have been developed
[166]Prediction: by 2016, the first effective longevity treatments
will have been introduced to calorie restriction mimicking drugs
[167]Prediction: By 2016 Myostatin inhibitors will be used by over 5
million people
FURTHER READING
[168]Previous review of predictions on the future
[169]Technologies and developments to watch for 2008
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More Recent Articles
* [187]Propellantless propulsion experiment explodes, SpaceX falcon
9 does not
* [188]New iron based superconductors show need for new theoretical
models
* [189]Follow up on Bakken and 150mpg SUV hybrid car
* [190]McCain and Obama may both choose female Vice Presidential
running mates
* [191]Accelerating Technological change versus constant everyday
life
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186. LYNXIMGMAP:file://localhost/tmp/mutt.TITHLP.html#outbrainMap_64651_5
187. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/304868503/propellantless-propulsion-experiment.html
188. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/304831299/new-iron-based-superconductors-show.html
189. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/304733363/follow-up-on-bakken-and-150mpg-suv.html
190. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/304666373/mccain-and-obama-may-both-choose-female.html
191. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/304570357/accelerating-technological-change.html
192. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=aba1af44-3397-11dd-898f-003005d0&group=64651
193. http://www.feedblitz.com/adfaq.asp
194. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8MTY5ODMz_
195. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Subscriptions=64651
196. http://www.feedblitz.com/f
197. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3x8ZXVnZW5AbGVpdGwub3JnfDE2OTgzMw==_
198. http://www.feedblitz.com/
199. http://www.feedblitz.com/
Hidden links:
200. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp1.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SEh7_bpKurI/AAAAAAAAAok/Ajc2ayAtpNg/s1600-h/holovizio720RC.jpg
201. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp3.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SEh_vqX73UI/AAAAAAAAAo0/vPmv20_UsdM/s1600-h/holovizio128WLD.jpg
202. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp3.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SEh-ZmPfQ0I/AAAAAAAAAos/shHVlnaPlYg/s1600-h/HoloVizio_Tech.jpg
203. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp1.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SEgyhrR1yQI/AAAAAAAAAoc/AM-cj1jiza0/s1600-h/xpinflatablecars.jpg
204. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp2.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/SEd-ixKm1CI/AAAAAAAAAoM/hV-15HtQQEc/s1600-h/csp-report.jpg
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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