[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Aug 19 11:41:56 UTC 2008
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Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2008 03:56:53 -0400
To: eugen <eugen at leitl.org>
Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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Here are the latest updates for eugen at leitl.org
"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]Updates on World Oil Production and Demand
2. [4]Blog Economics
3. [5]Modelling and Enabling a Manufacturing and Construction
Revolution
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]Updates on World Oil Production and Demand
[9]IEA (International Energy Agency) weekly oil report was issued June
10. Global oil product demand is expected to average 86.8 mb/d in
2008, 80 kb/d below last month's estimate, following the reduction of
price subsidies in several non-OECD countries. Global growth is cut
even more steeply by 230 kb/d to +0.9% or +800 kb/d when historical
upward revisions to 2006 and 2007 data are factored in.
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Global oil supply rebounded by 490 kb/d in May to average 86.6 mb/d,
lifted by higher OPEC crude supply. The rise however comes after
extensive downward revisions to 1Q08 non-OPEC production and lower
biofuels and NGLs for the rest of this year. Despite this, a recovery
in non-OPEC output is forecast for the second half of 2008.
World Oil Demand is still larger than supply by 1 million b/d.
[16]The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) posted their May,
2008 International Petroleum Monthly on June 9, 2008.
In thousands of barrels per day. Oil Production.
Time Period USA P. Gulf OAPEC OPEC World
2008 January..E 8,624 23,979 25,121 36,594 85,530
February E 8,625........24,208 36,885 85,827
March...PE 8,664 24,219 25,361 36,784 85,730
2008 3Mth AvgPE 8,638........24,134 36,751 85,693
The Persian Gulf countries are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Production from the
Kuwait-Saudi Arabia Neutral Zone is included in Persian Gulf
production.
OAPEC: Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria,
Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab
Emirates.
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria,
Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
FURTHER READING
[17]The Full IEA Oil Market Report. 60 page PDF.
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[35]Blog Economics
[36]Chitika, an ad network, had a study of the revenues of the top
50,000 blogs for 2006 Chitika made the assumption that an estimate of
total advertising revenues for a blog would be 3 times as much as the
Chitika revenue for the blog. Using revenue trends and statistics from
a representative
sample for the 12000+ Chitika publisher network. Ad revenue in a blog
is more sensitive to the rank of the blog than what one would expect
in a typical Zipf Law 80/20 curve situation. [More money for the top
blogs and less for the the bottom]. Blog ranking was determined by
Technorati ranking.
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[42]Ads delivered by FeedBlitz
Top 50,000 made $500 million in advertising in 2006.
[43]Top 10 blogs in Technorati, $40 million in ad revenue.
The top 1% accounted for approximately 20% of the total revenue.
Top 500 blogs made $100 million. Avg $200,000
11-500 blogs made $60 million. Avg $120,000
The top 5% accounted for approximately 50% of the total revenue.
Top 2500 blogs made $250 million
$150 million for 501-2500 Avg $75,000
The top 10% accounted for approximately 80% of the total revenue.
Top 5000 blogs made $400 million
2501 through 5000 made $150 million Avg $60,000
The top 15% accounted for approximately 90% of the total revenue.
Top 7500 blogs made $450 million
5001 through 7500 made $50 million Avg $20,000
7501 through 50,000 made $50 million Avg $1176.
Converting Alexa ranking to daily pageviews
Rank
242 www.saatchi-gallery.co.uk 0.5% reach 68 million page views/day
500 www.huffingtonpost.com 40 million page views/day
5000 www.space.com (4600) 6 million pv/day
35000 800,000 pv/day
70000 20-100,000pv/day
CPMs of $1 are low and $4 are average but it depends upon topic and
being able to sell the inventory of CPM. It also matters how hard the
site is trying to monetize.
Some Technorati to Alexa Ranks
[44]http://makezine.com/blog
Technorati Rank: 10,810 Alexa: 6400 4 million pv/day
[45]http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit
Technorati Rank: 280 Alexa: 35000 250,000 pv/day
[46]http://theoildrum.com
Technorati Rank: 2780 Alexa: 32000 70,000 pv/day
[47]http://liewcf.com
Technorati Rank: 5752 Alexa: 18621 300,000+ pv/month
[48]http://www/hackszine.com
Technorati Rank: 9073 Alexa: 50530 10k-30k per day
[49]top 25 blog properties (5-15 times annual profit for valuation)
for 2008
1.The Gawker Properties: $150 million. Gawker (#228), ValleyWag (#34
technorati), Gizmodo (#3 technorati), Wonkette (#678 technorati), and
a number of smaller websites. The company claims 30 million monthly
unique visitors. $11 million in revenue.
2. MacRumors: $85 million.Blog. It ranks No. 2,700 in Alexa. Page
views at 33 million, which seems a bit high. Advertising at least $30
per page CPM. est $12 million and with 60% margin.
3.Huffington Post: $70 million. In late 2007 management claimed that
the website had 4 million unique visitors per month and would bring in
$7.5 million for the year.
#1 ranking on Technorati.
4.PerezHilton: $48 million. Is No 400-755 in Alexa. Compete show 1.3
million visitors a month. Quantcast puts month page views at 191
million. That seems high. It would put revenue at $900,000 million a
month with a $5 CPM.
5.TechCrunch: $36 million. The TechCrunch network claims almost 3.2
million unique visitors and 14.6 million page views. Alexa 951-1795.
CPM yield estimate $30. Revenue from advertising at $438,000 a month
or $5.3 million a year. #2 ranking on Technorati.
6 (tied): Ars Technica $15 million. Sites ranks 2,500 in Alexa. #7
technorati. Audience is growing very rapidly. Quancast has reach at
1.1 million. Ads are all premium clients. Est $40 per page CPM. Page
views are probably six million a month. Revenue of almost $3 million.
FURTHER READING
[50]Craigslist revenue for 2008 is about $80 million
[51]TV station web revenue $1.2 billion
[52]Myspace revenue $800 million
[53]Guy Kawasaki blog revenue was not very good in 2007
[54]Adsense case study of Weblogs inc. $90K/month, 1 million/year, 60
million pageviews
[55]10 steps to seven figure income from your site
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[73]Modelling and Enabling a Manufacturing and Construction Revolution
[74]This site recently discussed the seeds of Manufacturing and
construction revolution.
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The seeds of the revolution are:
- Contour crafting (scaling up inkjet/rapid prototyping up to making
buildings, cement jet) Use cement as the ink. Layer by layer additive
construction. 200 times
faster than conventional methods. 5 times lower cost for construction.
- Inflatable electric cars. Flatship cars from a factory like Ikea
furniture and could be as cheap as $2500 for an environmentally
friendly car.
- Reel to reel production of electronics can be hundreds to thousands
of times faster than current lithography factories for making
computers and factories for making electronics, televisions, video
monitors.
Other seeds are
- wafer scale self assembly of nanoscale components
- Nanotubes and more new materials (nanosteel able to withstand higher
temperatures and retain strength)
- wood based fibers able to make paper and cardboard stronger than
cast iron. Cheap and plentiful material that could be strong enough
for many applications.
Making things 100 times faster than we do now would require a lot more
planning to prevent many unintended problems. We need to take the best
methods of today like Building Information Modelling and city planning
and take those to the next level as well.
Modelling and Planning the Manufacturing and Construction Revolution
Once a computer model of a building has been created, it is possible
to extract detailed plans of particular subsystems, such as cooling,
water and electrical wiring
[81]The Economist magazine talks about the shift for architects from
2-d blueprints to 3d databases. The amount of data and the variables
that are modeled need to be increased. A denser data version of Second
Life [virtual world modeling] needs to be made. Various proposed
construction can be planned out to end of life.
Elaborate digital models for cities. Currently architecture and city
planning are mostly 2-Dimensional professions.
Modeling to get better estimates, schedules and then simulate.
Building Information Management detail or greater fed into Second life
virtual reality with many scenarios and at faster than real-time
simulation modes.
There should also be various inexpensive real-time sensors tracking
various aspects of safety and feeding models with updates on the
current situation.
- Time and infrastructure health of surrounding systems and buildings
relative to next maintenance task
- Actual emissions at and around the building site
- Traffic and people flow and usage patterns
More rapid and cheap construction could help address things like the
California Dike problem.
Advanced City Planning
More detailed data, with more frequent updates at the city and larger
scales. Various links on the subject are below.
[82]Urban info modeling
[83]Virtual reality in city planning process.
[84]More frequently updated and detailed views of the real world from
Everyscape and google Earth and other sources.
[85]Virtual reality cityscapes
[86]Plan NYC
[87]New true 3 dimensional displays will help with the visualization
process
[88]Open geospatial BIM
Accelerating the Economy
Accelerating the economy while maintaining or improving safety will
require coordination and effort. Just like being able to have trains
move faster and with fewer delays requires planning, coordination and
effort.
Looking at the "mundane possible speedups" [not using nanofactory
level molecular nanotechnology or Artificial general intelligence]
will also flesh out the requirements for MNT speeds.
Each of the levels of faster speed would require consideration.
10 times faster construction would mean - less time for various checks
from weeks to days.
100 times faster means minutes for turnarounds or everything
pre-checked and approved.
1000 times means all interested parties must have their issues
pre-thought out for work in the pipeline up to one year in advance. A
pre-planned city wide wiki of intersection projects. New software and
new project planning may be required to enable each level.
Plans would be going into a queue for simulation, software-agent first
pass comments and validations.
How modularized and disconnected can things safely be? The more
compartimentalized things can be then the more simplicity and speed
can be retained. There is value to higher safe development speeds.
20% growth - 1997-98 Internet time across the whole economy
If Robin Hanson is correct about the economics of the singularity,
this would be the real long economic boom.
FURTHER READING
[89]building-information modelling (BIM).
[90]BIMStorm, open source BIM
BIM and Beyond
[91]Beyond BIM article
[92]BIM article
[93]BIM at wikipedia
[94]Virtual design and construction at wikipedia
[95]Google search on beyond BIM
[96]Five fallacies of BIM from Autodesk (CAD software maker]
[97]CityGML
Chuck Eastman, a professor of architecture and computing at the
Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta is one of the champions of
BIM.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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