[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
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Tue Aug 19 11:27:02 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]Top Ten Near Term Developments for Vastly Improved Capabilities
in Space
2. [4]Obama's plan to tax the rich won't work
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]Top Ten Near Term Developments for Vastly Improved Capabilities in Space
1. [8]Fuel depots. 2-17 times more stuff to the moon or other space
missions. Lowering costs for GTO closer to LEO orbit costs
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Propellant fuel depot
Boeing Propellant fuel depot
2. [15]Lunar concrete would reduce the amount of material needed to
build things on the moon by ten times.
3. Successful Big and cheap rockets by Spacex or others
[16]Spacex is trying to bring costs down to $500-3200/kg to get into
space
[2230448337_803ca0dc39.jpg?v=0]
Spacex Falcon 9 Heavy
[17]Spacex Dragon space capsule
4. Bigelow - inflatable space stations
[18]Bigelows planned habitable private space station
[19]Bigelow Aerospace Lagrange point and lunar plans
5. Vasimr
[20]The Vasimr 200kw unit is almost flight ready
[vasimrVX200.JPG]
A 12 MW Vasimr system could send a ship to Mars in less than 120 days
one way. A 200 MW Vasimr could go to Mars in 39 days.
1-2MW Vasimr lunar cargo vehicle could transfer up to 39% of the mass
from low earth orbit to the moon.
6. [21]Solar electric sail
[electricsail2.png]
[22]A simplified picture of the electric sail. An actual system would
have 50 to 100 or more 20 kilometer wires. 100 kg spaceships could be
accelerated to final speeds of 40-100 km/second. The electric sail is
an extremely promising new propulsion technique which is nearly ready
to be tested. If electron heating turns out to be successful
performance may be increased even more. Costs for solar system
missions will go down and new capabilities and performance will be
possible.
7. Virgin galactic getting LEO orbit capabilities with
[23]SpaceshipThree
[2215082514_b065dd721f.jpg?v=0]
Spaceshiptwo at apogee
[24]Virgin Galactic could expand the number of people (passengers) who
get to fly by 10 to 1000 times versus the NASA plans. Seats on
spaceshiptwo cost $200,000. Virgin Galactic says more than 200
individuals have booked, and another 85,000 have registered an
interest to fly. Tens of millions of dollars in deposits have already
been taken. If set prices drop to $100,000 each then 85,000 people
would generate $8.5 billion in revenue. This could make Spaceshipthree
(an orbital system) fully fundable from Virgin Galactic operational
profits. Virgin Galactic appears to be offering a path forward to
safer (100 times or more safer) and cheaper travel into space for a
lot more people.
8. [25]LEO solar power
Low earth orbit (LEO) systems offer the advantage of reducing the
scale of the solar power systems. An interesting concept for solar
power appears to be on track for testing in Palau by 2012. The Space
Island Group is also proposing low earth orbit solar power beamed to
multiple locations. Space Island Group hopes to have its first system
up by 2010. Space Island group is targeting 10 cents per kilowatt hour
(kWh). The Space Island Group has almost completed financing for a
prototype system that it claims will be in orbit within 18 months, at
a total cost of $200 million. "The satellite will deliver between 10
to 25 megawatts of power," says Meyers. "It will 'site-hop' across
base stations in Europe, beaming 90 minutes of power to each one by
microwave."
9. Lorentz force propulsion
[26]Successful simulated space conditions test of lorentz force
propulsion
[27]Refueling nuclear rockets using lorentz force propulsion
10.Power source breakthroughs: [28]IEC fusion, [29]focus fusion,
[30]uranium hydride reactors, [31]Blacklight power
[32]Tri-alpha energy
Farther out:
[33]Laser arrays. Technology is possible but not funded.
Space elevators and space piers. Technology will take two decades or
more to mature or to be funded.
Tethers. Minor development and projects funded.
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[51]Obama's plan to tax the rich won't work
[52]Businessweek discusses Obama's plan to increase the marginal tax
rate back to the level under Bill Clinton and before the Bush tax cuts
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Of the 149 million households filing federal income taxes for 2006,
some 3% reported income between $200,000 and $500,000; fewer than 1%
claimed income above half a million dollars.
[59]The Bush administration instituted a federal tax cut for all
taxpayers. Among other changes, the lowest income tax rate was lowered
from 15% to 10%, the 27% rate went to 25%, the 30% rate went to 28%,
the 35% rate went to 33%, and the top marginal tax rate went from
39.6% to 35%
Many people believe that increasing the marginal rate will collect
more revenue from the the rich or for the government in general.
[60]Historically it does not matter if the top marginal rate is 90% or
25% the government collects 19.5% of GDP. The only way to get more tax
revenue is to increase GDP. [61]Such as a concerted effort to
accelerate a manufacturing and construction revolution using new
systems and technology.
Economists of all persuasions accept that a tax rate hike will
reduce GDP, in which case Hauser's Law says it will also lower tax
revenue. That's a highly inconvenient truth for redistributive tax
policy, and it flies in the face of deeply felt beliefs about
social justice. It would surely be unpopular today with those
presidential candidates who plan to raise tax rates on the rich -
if they knew about it.
Although Hauser's Law sounds like a restatement of the Laffer Curve
(and Mr. Hauser did cite Arthur Laffer in his original article), it
has independent validity. Because Mr. Laffer's curve is a
theoretical insight, theoreticians find it easy to quibble with.
Test cases, where the economy responds to a tax change, always lend
themselves to many alternative explanations. Conventional
economists, despite immense publicity, have yet to swallow the
Laffer Curve. When it is mentioned at all by critics, it is often
as an object of scorn.
Because Mr. Hauser's horizontal straight line is a simple fact, it
is ultimately far more compelling. It also presents a major
opportunity. It seems likely that the tax system could maintain a
19.5% yield with a top bracket even lower than 35%.
The fact that no matter what the rates and brackets all that can be
obtained is 19.5% that argues for as simple a tax code as possible for
getting that 19.5%.
[62]The fair tax
or a
[63]Relatively flat tax
The wealthier someone is then the more control they can have over
their financial profile. Money can be shifted between income,
corporate profits, dividends and capital gains and new income can be
shifted between jurisdictions.
FURTHER READING
[64]CBO analysis of long term taxes
[65]Heritage examination of taxes
Comparing some [66]tax burdens between countries
Comparing top marginal individual and corporate tax rates
[67]Historical lessons of lower tax rates
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* [85]New Apple iPhone 2.0 Available July 11, 2008 starting at $199
* [86]Lorentz Force propulsion Successful test
* [87]Los Alamos Roadrunner supercomputer will run at over one
petaflop/second sustained speed in 2009
* [88]D-day and World War II Context
* [89]Seeds of a new manufacturing revolution
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88. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/306401888/d-day-and-world-war-ii-context.html
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90. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=52164d54-37b8-11dd-898f-003005d0&group=64651
91. http://www.feedblitz.com/adfaq.asp
92. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8MTcyMTgw_
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96. http://www.feedblitz.com/
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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