[tt] Next Big Future - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Thu Apr 17 08:02:37 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 4 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 4 new articles
1. [3]Updates on Uranium hydride reactor and Bussard fusion
2. [4]Current and Proposed Fuel efficiency standards
3. [5]Artificial Intelligence milestone - computer beats Go Master in
9X9 game
4. [6]Government Giveaway of efficient water heaters would be over
200% better than million roof solar program
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search Next Big Future
[9]Updates on Uranium hydride reactor and Bussard fusion
[10]Hyperion power generation has a new frequently asked question
page.
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[17]I had detailed coverage of the Hyperion Power generation uranium
hydride reactor from their patent submission.
[18]I also had considered applying the device for space power.
Power output of the device: Approximately 70 megawatts (MW) of heat
(thermal energy) and 25 megawatts (MW) of electrical power via steam
turbine.
Often referred to as a "cartridge" reactor or "nuclear battery," the
Hyperion hydride reactor is self- regulating with no moving parts to
break down or corrode.
Initial design efforts for Hyperion indicate that the sealed chamber
dimensions of the power modules can be limited in size --
approximately the size of a typical backyard hot tub. [A [19]Uranium
Hydride device that was 56 inches in diameter and 66 inches long
weighed 7400lb. Jacuzzi hot tubs tend to be 78 inches in diameter and
60 inches tall. So the Hyperion reactor chamber would probably be
about 8 tons in weight.]
HPG estimates that approximately 4,000 of the first module design will
be needed to meet initial demand.
HPG has already had several meetings with the NRC and will continue to
pursue the necessary design approvals and license to manufacture and
operate Hyperion power modules.
[20]Hyperion Power Generation was funded by the Altira group which has
raised $300 million under management for energy investments. [21]The
typical initial investment is $5-$10 million with follow-on
investments as warranted. They invest in companies that are
commercializing technology and are lead by an effective management
team with a compelling value proposition and a sustainable competitive
advantage. Several publicized investments by Altira have been for $16
million. [22]The press release on the funding of Hyperion Power
Generation
[23]EMC2 fusion who are working on the Bussard Inertial Electrostatic
(IEC) Fusion have released a picture of the outside of the test
chamber for the new prototype.
[24]From the International Academy of Science Technology of the Year
2006 award briefing on the IEC fusion device.
Dr. Bussard's Inertial Electrostatic Fusion offers
-Small, efficient power reactors, 1-3% the size of current magnetic
confinement reactors.
-Clean, radiation-free energy utilizing p B-11.
-Relatively simple engineering with commercial viability in 6-10
years.
-Low cost ($150-200 million from program inception to demonstration of
clean power.)
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[41]Current and Proposed Fuel efficiency standards
[42]Current and proposed car fuel efficiency standards from around the
world.
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[48]Ads delivered by FeedBlitz
Country Current Standard Proposed Standard
China: 36 mpg 43 mpg. (2009)
Canada: 27 mpg (current avg, no standard) TBA (starting in 2011)
United States: 25 mpg (current average) 35 mpg. (proposed, 2020
California: 25 mpg (current) 36 mpg. (proposed, 2016)
Europe: 40 mpg (current) 48.9 mpg. (proposed 2012)
Japan: 40 mpg. (current) 48.9 mpg. (proposed, 2015)
[49]There is discussion that a 75 mpg CAFE standard is needed by 2030
to meet greenhouse gas targets.
[50]The presidential candidate proposed standards.
Hillary Clinton's energy plan includes a fuel efficiency standard of
55 MPG by 2030.
Obama 40 MPG by 2016 but with a 4 percent increase each year.
[51]John McCain helped push for the 35 mpg standard but opposed the
40mpg standard. He has advanced several other energy bills.
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[68]Artificial Intelligence milestone - computer beats Go Master in 9X9 game
During the [69]Go Tournament in Paris, staged between 22 and 24 March
2008 by the French Go Federation (FFG), the MoGo artificial
intelligence (IA) engine developed by INRIA -- the French National
Institute for Research in Computer Science and Control -- running on a
Bull NovaScale supercomputer, [70]won a 9x9 game of Go against
professional [71]5th DAN Catalin Taranu. This was the first ever
officially sanctioned 'non blitz' victory of a 'machine' over a Go
Master.
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Although Catalin Taranu beat the computer in a 19x19 configuration
with a nine-stone handicap, the Go Master nevertheless rated the IA
system as 'approaching Dan standard' in a performance that promises
some formidable battles to come between man and machine. Dan standard
would be a ranking of 2100 versus a 2830 ranking for a 5th
professional DAN player and 2940 for a 9th professional DAN player.
From a paper: Solving Go on a 3x3 Board Using Temporal-Difference by
Learning
Choon Ngai Tay
Computer Go is one of the biggest challenges faced by game
programmers. One of the reasons that it remains unsuccessful is due
to the enormous search space. The size of the search space for a
normal 19 x 19 Go board, is estimated to be 10^170 states, whereas
the search space for chess is 10^50. The size of the game tree for
Go is approximated to be 10^600 compared to 10^123 for chess.
However, this is not the main reason as the small 9 x 9 Go board
has a search space of 10^40 and a game tree size of 10^85 is also
unsuccessful. The main reason is that until now no one has derived
an evaluation function that accurately describes the intermediate
Go states.
[78]The complexity of different size games of GO at wikipedia.
Size Game tree complexity of average game length
9×9 7.6×10^85
13×13 3.2×10^200
19×19 3 X 10^511
21×21 1.3X 10^661
[79]TAO : Machine Learning and Optimisation site
[80]the University of Alberta helped improve the Go system. The
University of Alberta had researchers that helped to solve checkers.
FURTHER READING
[81]A research paper on how the MOGO system works.
[82]Website of one of the french researchers
[83]Computer GO at wikipedia
[84]A research paper on the difficulties of programming GO
[85]Complexity table for many games at wikipedia
[86]Statistics on even GO games (19X19 board)
Professional 4th DAN, 5th DAN, 6th DAN players generally never lose to
some 4 rankings less than them. A 6th pro DAN player generally never
loses to a 2nd pro DAN or lower player. The better players tend not to
lose to even slightly weaker opponents. The 6th pro DAN players tend
to not lose to even 4th DAN pro players and only lose 15% of the time
to 5th DAN pro players.
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Master in 9X9 game'
[103]Government Giveaway of efficient water heaters would be over 200%
better than million roof solar program
The US standard tank water heater that uses approximately 4800 kWh per
year. Home water heating is the number two residential energy
consumption after residential heating and cooling. [104]The average US
household uses 920 kwh per month or 11040 kwh per year First for the
most bang for the buck, look at simple and cheap steps to insulate and
reduce water heating losses and wasting of hot water, then look at
more efficient water heaters and finally look at solar energy systems.
A 3kw solar photovoltaic power system could optimally generate
5500kwh/year. The system cost $20,000 to 30,000 installed. Government
assistance is $12000 per system. 22 cents per kwh for ten years. Water
heaters that are twice as efficient would have 2400 kwh/year and
government payment of the $2400 price difference over standard water
heaters would be 10 cents per kwh for ten years. Even full payment of
$3000 for would be 12.5 cents per kwh for ten years and volume
purchase agreements and high volume production could reduce the costs.
For the price the government pays for one solar PV home, there could
be 5-6 homes saving half of the energy generated by that one solar PV
system. This does not include the extra cost paid by the home owner.
The homeowner and the government combined pay $21,000 for solar versus
$3500 for a twice as efficient water heater. The water heater option
is usually 300% more efficient than solar power (About 300% in sunny
California, Nevada and even more effective in places with less
sunlight).
The Department of Energy's announced April 1, 2008 ENERGY STAR®
criteria for residential water heaters. There are and will be more
energy efficient water heating products on the market. These will
payback for you if you get the tax breaks and utility breaks to help
pay for the installation and have average or higher water usage.
[105]Grand Hall brings tank and tank-less technologies together in the
first of its kind Eternal® Hybrid water heater (2006). [106]Grand
Hall's website is here
The MSRP/retail is $2500-2800 for the different Grand Hall units. The
plumber will add an installation charge to a wholesale price. They are
available across the United States now and have been installed. This
is fairly expensive but it would be less expensive than installing
solar panels on your roof to generate the power for an inefficient
water heater and other appliances. [107]A 2.4 KW residential system in
Los Angeles area and makes estimated output of 3,646 kWH/year (less
sunny places produce less electricity. [108]One person online quotes
$20,000 to buy and install a 3KW system which was $8000 after rebates
and tax breaks
[109]Many solar PV 3KW systems costs $25000-30,000 before rebates.
A [110]GE tankless gas water heater could help homeowners save up to
25 percent annually on water heating costs compared to the operating
costs of a standard 40-gallon gas tank water heater.
Available May 1, 2008, the GE Tankless Gas Water Heater will be
offered in two sizes (7.5-gallon-per-minute flow and 9.4
gallon-per-minute flow), indoor and outdoor. The 7.5-gallon-per-minute
flow will be available for natural gas; the 9.4-gallon-per-minute flow
will be available for natural gas or LP gas.
Expect a new GE Hybrid Electric Water Heater in the fourth quarter of
2009. It will use less than half of the energy - or about 2300 kWh per
year - a savings of approximately 2500 kWh per year. This wil save
approximately $250 per year, and $2,500 savings in energy costs over a
10 year period based on 10 cents per kWh.
[111]Switching the water heater would save more energy than changing
all light bulbs in a house with [112]heavy light usage.
[113]DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a consumer guide
to Estimating a Solar Water Heater System's Cost. Water heating can
account for 14%-25% of the energy consumed in your home.
[114]DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has a consumer guide
to Estimating a Storage, Demand, or Heat Pump Water Heater's Costs
To lower your water heating bills, try one or more of these
energy-saving strategies:
-Reduce your hot water use ( quality, low-flow fixtures for around $10
to $20 a piece and achieve water savings of 25-60%.)
-Lower your water heating temperature (For each 10ºF reduction in
water temperature, you can save between 3%-5% in energy costs.)
-Insulate your water heater tank ($10-20, saves 4%-9% in water heating
costs)
-Insulate hot water pipes (Insulate all accessible hot water pipes,
especially within 3 feet of the water heater. It's also a good idea to
insulate the cold water inlet pipes for the first 3 feet.)
-Install heat traps on a water heater tank (A pair of heat traps costs
only around $30 and can save $15-$30 on your water heating bill. New
units should already have heat traps)
-Install a timer and use off-peak power for an electric water heater
-Install a drain-water heat recovery system.
-If you haven't already, you can save energy and money by installing a
more energy efficient water heater
[115]I had previously reviewed a study on cost effient ways to achieve
optimum home energy usage
[116]There are 96.7% efficient home energy furnaces.
[117]An independent analysis of electric tankless water heaters.
It costs about $1,200.00 labor and device to install an electric
tankless heater, providing you have enough capacity in your electric
panel. It costs approximate installed cost of $ 600.00 for a standard
electric water heater. Tankless heaters have a life expectancy of
14-18 years a standard water heater will last 6-12 years depending on
the hardness of the water and the maintenance performed on it.
Government figures now say the average elctric bill allocates about 13
percent to heat water, so if your monthly bill is about $100.00 your
savings might be 3-6.00 per month. Additionally, taking a shower and
washing the dishes or clothes at the same time will probably stretch
the capabilities of the electric tankless heater. So you will need to
not shower and use the washers at the same time to achieve the
savings. Many energy bills are higher at $200-400/month.
Tankless system Hybrid system
Extra cost $600 about $2100
$100/mth savings $3.3 $7
Simple payback 15 years 30 years
Utilities often provide bonus savings for reducing energy bill
Extra cost $1000 about 2400
$200/mth savings $6.5 $14
Simple Payback 13 years 14 years
$400/mth savings $13 $28
Simple payback 6.5 years 7 years
[118]Tax breaks for energy efficiency.
Gas, oil, propane water heater Energy Factor 0.80 $300
Electric heat pump water heater Energy Factor 2.0 $300
[119]PGE only provides a $30 rebate for an energy efficient water
heater.
[120]Savings analysis from a vendor of tankless water systems If you
use a lot more water than average then more costs can be saved.
[121]Electricity costs in the United States by state.
[122]Electric water heating accounted for over 100 billion kWh (9
percent) in 2001. Of the total of 107 million households, 41 million
used electricity as their water heating fuel, compared with 58 million
households that used natural gas.
[123]Ecogeek talked about the GE tankless and hybrid water heaters and
other high efficiency water heaters being able to "kill 30 coal
plants" There are 661 sites with almost 1500 coal plants in the United
States. Just like hybrid cars it will take a long time to get new
efficient models adopted and installed. Probably about ten years if
more agressive policies are put in place to encourage faster adoption.
Bigger rebates and tax breaks and some formalized means of recovering
the savings when houses that are more energy efficient are sold.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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