[tt] Next Big Future - 3 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Sat Apr 12 20:24:41 UTC 2008
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Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2008 03:09:16 -0400
To: eugen <eugen at leitl.org>
Subject: Next Big Future - 3 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 3 new articles
1. [3]Why space exploration ?
2. [4]Certain Aluminum clusters appear to superconduct at 200K
3. [5]Some natural gas and oil plays
4. [6]More Recent Articles
5. [7]Search Next Big Future
[8]Why space exploration ?
[9]Universe today asks the question "Why should we be spending money
exploring space when there are so many problems here on Earth that we
need to solve first?"
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I provided my answer [I have extended it here]:
Lack of a space program will not solve anything else faster and a well
planned program [not what we have been doing] can deliver massive
benefits. History shows the logical flaw.
There has been no historical example of any group "solving all of
their problems before embarking on exploration/expansion/major
project". The solve all problems locally before advancing has not been
shown to be a successful strategy. There has been major examples where
the imperfect/highly flawed expander had major advantages over the
non-expander (who was also flawed). The biggest one is China had the
largest ocean going fleet in 1400's. Then the emperor destroyed that
fleet. The Western nations came a few hundred years later and forced
China to give up Hong Kong and Macau for 99 years. The Europeans
colonized North America and expanded economies because of those
policies. The world has about a 60 trillion/year economy. There is not
a shortage of resources in money or people to target problems. Well
funded, well planned and well executed efforts can be directed at all
of the problems simultaneously. Just putting ten times, a hundred
times or a million times more money does not convert a failing plan,
project against hunger, poverty, corruption into a successful plan.
Most of those plans and efforts have failed in the past and holding a
new project contingent upon solving those first is a bad idea. We need
more/better plans and better thinking.
The fallacy of the let us solve X, Y, and Z before doing A, B and C
can be seen not just in big history but every day life.
I will lose 35 pounds, organize my home and achieve emotional balance
before getting a new job.
I will become self sufficient through greenhouse farming, get my
extended family and friends jobs and savings and solve all of their
arguments, feuds and disagreements before I launch a new business.
Whether I can make a new business a success is largely independent of
those other projects. A well executed business plan can provide more
money to pay for other home projects.
Space exploration and development has had a lot of waste and a lack of
purpose and a good plan. A strong case can be made that the overall
purpose of the space programs have been one aspect of political pork
with minimal space efforts and the name space program. Clearly the
space shuttle and the space station have vastly under delivered for
the money spent on them.
Strategies for successful space development: Focus on lowering the
cost and the purpose of colonization and industrialization and
commerce (tourism etc...)
- If lowering the cost is best down with more robots then use robots
first or mainly. do not force the manned program until costs go down.
- fuel depots in space (bring the costs down closer to the cost of LEO
$2000/kg)
- More nuclear propulsion and non-chemical systems (mirrored laser
arrays for launches).
Bill Dunford - [16]Riding with Robots on the High Frontier had an
answer that was along similar thinking.
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[33]Certain Aluminum clusters appear to superconduct at 200K
[34]Martin Jarrold,Indiana University in Bloomington, is claiming to
have found evidence of superconductivity in aluminium nanoclusters at
200 K. Two years ago Yuri Ovchinnikov at the Landau Institute for
Theoretical Physics in Moscow and Vladimir Kresin at the Lawrence
Berkeley Laboratory in California predicted that metal nanoclusters
with exactly the right number of delocalised electrons (a few hundred
or so) could become strong superconductors. Hopefully this leads to
other materials that work at high temperature and which can be
incorporated into products and applications.
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Physicists require three unambiguous and repeatable lines of evidence.
The first is obviously zero electrical resistance. The second is the
Meisner effect in which the superconductor reflects an external
magnetic field. And finally there must be evidence of a
superconducting phase transition, such as a jump in the material's
heat capacity when superconductivity occurs.
What Jarrold's team have measured is the last effect-a massive change
in an individual nanocluster's heat capacity at 200 K.
In other superconducting news: [41]Researchers found that atomic areas
where electrons were strongly repulsive when at non-superconducting
high temperatures were where there was the strongest connections when
superconducting at low temperatures. [Important for developing better
theories and hopefully guiding experimentation.]
They found that atomic locations of the sample in which electrons
show signs of stronger repulsion for each other -- at very high
temperature -- formed the strongest bonded pairs of electrons at
low temperatures. This observation runs contrary to the behavior of
electrons in low-temperature superconducting materials, in which
electron-electron repulsion is not conducive to electron pairing up
and superconductivity.
They found that when the samples were heated up to very high
temperatures at which electrons no longer paired up, the electrons
that had been superconducting at colder temperatures exhibited
unique quantum properties at warmer temperatures indicating they
possessed extremely strong repulsive forces.
FURTHER READING
[42]Evidence for High Tc Superconducting Transitions in Isolated Al45
and Al47 Nanoclusters
[43]Superconductance has been seen at 185K
[44]There was the new class of highly pressurized silane
superconductors which could have potential.
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[268524444]
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[61]Some natural gas and oil plays
[62]The Horn River Basin, very little was known about the play
until Feb 28, 2008, when Houston-based EOG Resources Inc. said it
might have reserves of six trillion cubic feet - the same as
Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories, and a figure that would
increase Canada's total proved reserves by roughly 10 per cent.
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EnCana Corp. of Calgary - which claims the initial discovery of
Horn River's potential - and partner Apache Corp. of Houston may
also have 6 trillion cubic feet of gas, Apache said in early
February.
British Columbia is set for a frantic land grab by natural gas
explorers, following months of speculation and intensified by last
week's announcement of what could rank among the largest gas
discoveries in Canadian history. Land sales are conducted twice a
month in Alberta, once a month in British Columbia, and every two
months in Saskatchewan. Wells at Horn River are expensive, roughly
$10-million per hole. Horn River - as well as the hot Montney play
further south in the same area of B.C. - faces challenges beyond
geology, led by its remoteness, where drilling is conducted in winter
because rigs can only make it to locations when the rugged ground is
frozen.
[69]Montney natural gas is potentially one of the largest economically
viable resource plays in North America, says a report by Raymond James
Ltd.
Estimates for gas content in the sandstones, siltstones and shale
sequences of the Triassic-aged Montney formation in northeastern
British Columbia put the resource size at about 50 trillion cubic
feet (tcf) over an area of about 680 square miles (73 billion cubic
feet per section). This estimate is near the bottom end of the
range of the B.C. government estimates of 30 tcf for the Upper
Montney and 50 tcf in the Lower Montney in B.C. alone. the report
says. The current focus is the Upper Montney which is being
developed by drilling horizontal wells with multi-stage fracs. The
economics have improved from a break-even prospect using vertical
wells to a 27% expected internal rate of return (IRR) using
horizontal wells. The limited facilities and pipelines in the areas
will constrain significant production growth until new
infrastructure is added. Raymond James says wells in the Barnett
Shale play in Texas show similar characteristics to the Montney
(for example, first-year average production), but the Barnett wells
have higher internal rates of return -- primarily due to faster
completion times -- and hence lower wells costs. In the Montney,
average horizontal well costs have fallen to the $4-$5.5-million
range (drilled and completed) -- much better than 18 months ago
when some horizontal wells were still costing $7-$8 million, the
report says.
Montney players (either on the producer or service side) include
Murphy Oil Corporation, Ensign Energy Services Inc., Storm Exploration
Inc. and Sabretooth Energy Ltd., EnCana Corp, Duvernay Oil Corp. and
Birchcliff Energy Ltd, ARC Energy Trust among others.
[70]Oil Mega projects starting in 2008.
OIL Projects 100,000 barrels of oil per day or larger, Big to smaller
Country Project Name Company Peak Yr Peak amt bopd
Saudi Arabia AFK Aramco 2009 500,000 [[71]Abu Hadriya;Fadhili;Khur
saniyah]
[72]Russia Vankorskoye TNK-BP Rosneft 2017 420,000 bopd towards the end of
2008
Mexico Amatitlan PEMEX 2029 393,000
Saudi Arabia Hawiyah Aramco 2009 318,000 (NGL)
[73]Azerbaijan ACG Phs III BP 260,000 [Q208]
USA [74]Thunder Horse BP 250,000
Canada Cold Lake CNRL 2018 240,000
[75]Nigeria Agbami Chevron 2010 230,000 [first oil Q308, ramped u
p Q309]
[76]Nigeria Akpo Total 180,000 [Probably early 2009]
Brazil Marlim SM2 P-51 Petrobras 180,000
Brazil Marlim Leste P-53 Petrobras 180,000
Russia YK Lukoil 2009 150,000
Kazakhstan Dunga Maersk 150,000
Canada Firebag; Steepbank Suncor 2010 140,000
Qatar Ras Laffan QP 140,000
Canada Horizon CNRL 135,000
Iran Azadegan P1 NIOC 2012 125,000
Norway Alvheim; Marathon 2009 120,000
Nigeria EA expand Shell 115,000
Iran Darkhovin P2 NIOC 2008 110,000
Brazil ML(FPSO C d Niteroi) Petrobras 100,000
Angola B15 Kizomba C (Mondo) ExxonMobil 100,000
Angola B15 KizC(Saxi;Batuque) ExxonMobil 100,000
[77]Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday that they will start adding
500,000 bpd to its total capacity when the Khursaniyah field comes on
stream this month. Abdulaziz al-Judaimi, vice president of new
business development at Saudi Aramco said, "The Khursaniyah field will
start producing within a month at 300,000 bpd and will eventually add
500,000 bpd to the country's production capacity."
[78]The United states has the Thunder Horse deep sea oil project in
the Gulf of Mexico, which should produce 1 billion barrels of oil with
250,000 barrels per day. The Bakken needs pipelines and refinery
capacity to reach its full potential.
[79]Suncor 240,000 bpd in 2007, targeting 270,000-300,000 bpd average
in 2008. Probably 350,000 bpd by yearend as still 248,000 bpd in
April, 2008
[80]The US part of the Gulf of Mexico could be producing a daily yield
of 800,000 and accounting for 11 percent of US oil production by 2011.
[81]This would be follow up to the Jack2 test well by Chevron, which
indicates 3-15 billion barrels of oil.
[82]Saudi AFK production to start in June, 2008
[83]The big one in 2009 is Saudi Arabia, Khurais 1,200,000 bopd
[84]Oil fields in the USA
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More Recent Articles
* [101]NanoEngineer-1 software for CAD/CAM with structural DNA
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* [105]Life extension Update, metabolic pathway drug modification
and SENS
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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