[tt] Next Big Future - 5 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Fri Apr 11 08:55:49 UTC 2008
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Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2008 04:11:30 -0400
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Subject: Next Big Future - 5 new articles
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Here are the latest updates for eugen at leitl.org
"[2]Next Big Future" - 5 new articles
1. [3]NanoEngineer-1 software for CAD/CAM with structural DNA
2. [4]USGS Bakken oil study released, 3.65 billion barrels of oil
3. [5]Carnival of Space Week 49
4. [6]China currency stronger than 7 to the US dollar
5. [7]Life extension Update, metabolic pathway drug modification and
SENS
6. [8]More Recent Articles
7. [9]Search Next Big Future
[10]NanoEngineer-1 software for CAD/CAM with structural DNA
Sample of designs using structural DNA
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[17]H/T to Foresight
[18]Nanorex will be announcing the first public release of
Nano-Engineer 1 at their evening workshop on April 24.
NanoEngineer-1 (NE1), the world's first 3D CAD/CAM program for
structural DNA nanotechnology (SDN) research and education. NE1 can
generate atomistic models of DNA structures from NE1 reduced models.
NE1 plug-ins like QuteMolX and POV-Ray can create stunning,
high-quality renderings of DNA models suitable for publication and the
web.
NE1 can produce a "Bill of Materials" from the DNA model which
contains all strands and their sequences in the design. This can be
used to order DNA directly from suppliers of custom oligonucleotides
such as Intergrated DNA Technologies
FURTHER READING
[19]Online info on nanoengineer-1 They also have Nanohive, NanoHive-1
is a modular simulator used for modeling the physical world at a
nanometer scale, and also NanoHive at Home for distributed computing
simulations.
[20]DNA structures can provide frameworks for next-generation
nanosystems.
Special structures: The first line of research is the development of a
wide range of atomically precise functional components --
organometallic complexes, magic-size quantum dots, nanotubes and
fibers, engineered surfaces, and so forth.
Engineered Proteins: The second line of research is the development of
polymers made from a diverse set of monomers that fold to make
specific 3D structures.
Structural DNA itself: The third line is SDN itself, which now can be
used to implement a large growing range of structures on a scale of
tens to thousands of nanometers.
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[37]USGS Bakken oil study released, 3.65 billion barrels of oil
[38]Assessment of Undiscovered Oil Resources in the
Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin Province,
Montana and North Dakota, 2008 Click on the pictures for larger view.
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Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological
Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.65 billion barrels
of oil, 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural
gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken
Formation of the Williston Basin Province, Montana and North
Dakota.
This is a lower figure than I had guessed. However, it is 24 times
more than the 1995 estimate of 150 million barrels and 6 times more
recent quotes of 600 million barrels. It increases the US assessment
of October 2007 from 42 billion barrels to 45 billion barrels a 6.7%
increase. [45]This is a probable [50% probable] reserves number as the
old proven [90% likely] reserve number was 21 billion barrels Proven
reserves increases by almost 3 billion barrels. The 95% figure was
3063 million barrels of oil. The old proven reserves was 150 million
barrels. So the US proven reserves number goes up to 24 billion
barrels a 15% increase. Adding almost 2 years to the 12 year life of
US reserves based on proven reserve calculations. The Bakken is now
the largest probable reserve in the United States outside of Alaska.
It is one third the size of Alaska's ANWR.
As technology improves I would expect the recovery rates to increase.
The USGS projection is keeping pace with what is happening now. The
technology and the business effort has to and I believe will increase
to find ways to get more of what is there.
Just like eventually the shale in Colorado should be tapped for oil
with underground heating. The Bakken oil in shale sandwhich should be
easier to access than the Colorado shale without oil. When that
happens then there will be new USGS reports to reflect that proven
development. THe USGS is like Missouri (the show me state). First you
have to show that a technique is working then the USGS ups the
estimate.
[46]Here is the fact sheet
[47]The USGS press release 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically
Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana's Bakken
Formation--25 Times More [48]Than 1995 Estimate.
The Bakken Formation estimate is larger than all other current USGS
oil assessments of the lower 48 states and is the largest
"continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS. A
"continuous" oil accumulation means that the oil resource is
dispersed throughout a geologic formation rather than existing as
discrete, localized occurrences. The next largest "continuous" oil
accumulation in the U.S. is in the Austin Chalk of Texas and
Louisiana, with an undiscovered estimate of 1.0 billions of barrels
of technically recoverable oil.
Five continuous assessment units (AU) were identified and assessed
in the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana - the Elm
Coulee-Billings Nose AU, the Central Basin-Poplar Dome AU, the
Nesson-Little Knife Structural AU, the Eastern Expulsion Threshold
AU, and the Northwest Expulsion Threshold AU.
At the time of the assessment, a limited number of wells have
produced oil from three of the assessments units in Central
Basin-Poplar Dome, Eastern Expulsion Threshold, and Northwest
Expulsion Threshold.
The Elm Coulee oil field in Montana, discovered in 2000, has
produced about 65 million barrels of the 105 million barrels of oil
recovered from the Bakken Formation.
[49]Link to the 6.5 minute podcast talking to the authors of the
report.
[50]The geological assessment results can be downloaded here
[51]The page where a link to the full report should appear.
Welcome Instapundit readers.
TO THOSE SO INCLINED
[52]Consider digging this article and/or [53]stumblingupon.
Thanks
FURTHER READING
[54]The assessment methodology of the USGS
[55]USGS 1995 study and current decline rates
[56]Estimates of bakken oil size and timing
[57]Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique
[58]Here is more details on how horizontal drilling and fracturing
work
[59]Bakken oil not fully valued
[60]Bakken oil is highly profitable
[61]A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA
and Canada
[62]Other methods of resurrecting old oil wells. 67% of US oil is
still in old wells and needs new technology to help recover it.
[63]MDU resources has a couple of 800 barrel per day wells
[64]Petrobank is a major player in the Bakken and also has the THAI
and CAPRI drilling processes for the oilsands in Alberta [scaling up
to a 100,000 barrel per day oilsand project over the next few years.
[65]More bakken news from Google news
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[82]Carnival of Space Week 49
[83]Carnival of Space 49 is up at willgater
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My contribution [90]was my article on carbon nanotubes with gold
surrounded by lithium hydride being able to convert radiation to
electricity 20 times better than old RTGs This will provide better
space power in about ten years.
[91]Centauri dreams article on Dyson spheres and aliens is part of CoS
49 as well. This was a follow up to one of my articles and some SETI
search for Dyson Spheres.
[92]Growing plants on the Moon
Not part of Carnival of Space week 49, but two excellent articles on
fuel depots from [93]Selenian Boondocks here and [94]presentations on
Space access 2008 Propellant Depot Panel.
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[111]China currency stronger than 7 to the US dollar
[112]China's yuan is now stronger 7 to 1 versus the US dollar [6.99 as
of April 10, 2008]
[113]The Asia Times discusses the advantages of a strong currency for
China.
Beijing may have so far the strongest incentive not to wage any
currency wars but to accelerate the pace of yuan's appreciation. In
January, the consumer price index in China went up 7.1% from a year
earlier, followed by a 8.7% year-on-year increase in February
(Bloomberg, March 28). A major appreciation of the yuan, together
with raising the interest rate further, is seen as the most
effective way of bringing China's ongoing inflation under control.
A stronger yuan, Yu Yongding [director of the Institute of World
Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
and former member of the country's powerful Currency Committee]
writes, will certainly have an impact on China's export volumes,
and potentially affect some manufacturing jobs. But the impact will
be limited given the size of the Chinese economy. Furthermore,
China's imports will become cheaper, thus canceling out any
negatives that may come from the reduced exports. Ultimately, such
macro-level adjustment will make the Chinese economy much healthier
and more competitive.
[114]The NY Times take on the stronger yuan
Many specialists believe the shifting fortunes of the yuan and the
dollar are healthy for the global economy because they reflect the
reality of a weakening American economy and China's growing wealth.
Before, many economists complained, America was consuming far too
much and China was overproducing and not consuming enough.
"This is helping rebalance the global economy," an economist at
Credit Suisse, Dong Tao, said. "But this is also very significant
for China's export sector. We forecast that as many as one third of
export manufacturers may close down over the next three years."
FURTHER READING
[115]The yuan passed 7.3 at the end of 2007
[116]Some are project the yuan to be at 6.45-6.8 by June, 2008
'Inflation in China is the number one policy concern,' said David
Mann, currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank. 'At the
moment, the priority is to lower inflation over growth.'
The Chinese government earlier today revised its gross domestic
product growth for 2007 to 11.9 percent from 11.4 percent. It was
the fifth straight year that GDP expanded at more than 10 percent.
The yuan will probably appreciate to 6.45 to the dollar by the end
of June and to 6.10 to a dollar next year, said Mann.
If David Mann were correct then the projection below would have China
with Hong Kong and Macau passing the United States economy on a
exchange rate basis in 2017.
Updated projection for slightly faster appreciation, US recession and
China slowdown this year and next.
Year GDP(yuan) GDP growth Yuan per USD Yuan+ % China GDP China/w HK/Ma US GDP
2006 20.94 7.8 2.7 13.2
2007 23.6 11.5% 7.3 3.24 13.8
2008 26.2 9% 6.35 15% 4.1 4.4 13.9
2009 28.8 9% 5.62 13% 5.1 5.4 14.2
2010 31.6 9.5% 5.11 10 5.9 6.4 14.6
2011 34.4 9.5% 4.64 10 7.1 7.6 15.0
2012 37.5 9.5% 4.26 8.0 8.4 9.0 15.4
2013 40.9 9.0% 3.91 7.0 10.4 10.7 15.9
2014 44.6 9.0% 3.72 5.0 11.9 12.3 16.4
2015 48.2 8.0% 3.54 5.0 13.5 14.0 16.9
2016 52.0 8.0% 3.53 5.0 15.3 15.8 17.4
2017 55.9 7.5% 3.38 5.0 17.2 17.8 17.9
2018 59.8 7.0% 3.20 2.0 19.2 19.8 18.4
2019 64.0 7.0% 3.09 2.0 21.4 21.8 19.0
2020 68.5 7.0% 3.0 2 23.4 23.8 20.1
2021 72.6 6.0% 2.9 2 25.3 25.7 20.7
2022 77.0 6.0% 2.9 2 27.3 27.7 21.3
2023 80.8 5.0% 2.8 2 29.3 29.7 22
2024 84.8 5.0% 2.8 2 31.4 31.8 22.6
2025 89.1 5.0% 2.7 2 33.6 34.0 23.3
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[133]Life extension Update, metabolic pathway drug modification and SENS
[134]In an Esquire magazine interview Andre Dillin, Salk Institute,
indicated that they have a compound which is very effective at
treating Alzheimers effects and extending life. So far that work has
been on C elegan worms
But more than the apparent result, what excites and interests
Dillin is the way the drug achieves its result. A-Beta does its
damage by causing cell proteins to misfold; Dillin suspects that
the drug works not by specifically blocking A-Beta but rather by
encouraging proteins to keep folding accurately and precisely. That
is, he thinks the drug works by promoting an overall cellular
well-being, otherwise known as youthfulness. Specifically, he
thinks the drug works by "upregulating the PHA-4 pathway," which
has been defined as a pathway regulating longevity. But he thinks
it does more than that. He thinks it will enable him to define and
deal experimentally with youthfulness.
The article mentions doubling lifespans to 250 years. However, to
achieve that effect would require more than calorie restriction
effects. It would also not apply to people who are already middle age
or older if it is reducing metabolic aging in half.
[135]Andrew Dillin's research papers
[136]The SENS and MPrize funding combined are over $11 million
SENS is looking to launch several new research projects.
[137]AmyloSENS: Extracellular junk is aggregates of stuff that do not
have any function and should ideally have been cleared out of the
body, but have proven resistant to destruction. Most of this junk is
termed "amyloid" of one variety or another. You may have heard of one
form of amyloid - Abeta, the stifling, web-like material that forms
plaques in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease, and also
(more slowly) in everyone else's.
Elan Pharmaceuticals' most recent candidate Alzheimer vaccine,
bapineuzumab, has been the subject of recent excitement after the
company launched a full-scale ("Phase III") clinical trial at an
unusually early point, leading to speculation that the
as-yet-undisclosed preliminary results of its earlier trials may be
exceptionally promising.
The Methuselah Foundation is presently in discussion with leading
researchers in this field with a view to initiating work on a vaccine
- similar to that developed by Elan for Alzheimer's disease - to
stimulate the aged body to clear the widespread amyloids (particular
of transthyretin) responsible for senile systemic amyloidosis.
[138]ApoptoSENS
There are three main classes of cells that sometimes acquire a
metabolic state that is damaging to their neighbours. (Visceral fat
cells, Senescent cells, Immune cells)
There are two main alternatives:
1. Inject something that makes the unwanted cells commit suicide but
doesn't touch other cells.
2. Stimulate the immune system to kill the target cells.
[139]Glycosens
The Methuselah Foundation is currently planning out a project to
engineer enzymes capable of cleaving the ubiquitous glucosepane
crosslinks, which may comprise as much as 98% of all the long-lived
crosslinks in aged human tissue. This work is still in the early
planning stages, but we hope to be able to begin full-time research
before the end of 2008.
[140]Oncosens
We don't actually need to fix chromosomal mutations at all in order to
stop them from killing us: all we need to do is develop a really
really good cure for cancer. The one that I favour (and which was the
topic of the third SENS roundtable, a meeting I convened in Cambridge
in 2002) is called WILT, for Whole-body Interdiction of Lengthening of
Telomeres.
The Methuselah Foundation is planning to launch three projects in the
OncoSENS strand during 2008.
The first project aims to characterise the enzyme responsible for ALT,
which is still unknown. Recently, however, observations in two
different organs have given good reason to consider a hitherto
unsuspected gene. A relatively simple series of experiments could test
this hypothesis.
The second project addresses a potential problem with the WILT
strategy. It's possible that telomerase activity per se - independent
of telomere length - may have roles in maintaining the health of the
stem cells themselves, or of their rarely-dividing neighbours in the
so-called "stem cell niche". We are arranging a project to address
this question, in the blood of mice, with the world's leading
professor in the area.
Finally, the theory that non-cancer-causing mutations are unlikely to
be harmful in a normal lifetime - protagonistic pleiotropy - is not
yet widely accepted. We are therefore initiating a rigorous study into
the effects of such mutations in mouse brains.
[141]Replenisens
Cell depletion is the loss of cells without equivalent replacement.
Cell depletion can be fixed in two main ways: by stimulating the
division of existing cells, or by directly introducing new ones. There
is a lot of active work with Stem cells, so the Methuselah Foundation
does not currently intend to allocate its limited resources to
projects in this area.
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More Recent Articles
* [158]20% of the readers of Nature use cognitive enhancers
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* [160]Bakken news from around the internet on the eve of the USGS
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* [162]Onchip photonic communications for 2017 computer processors
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163. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=e22fcdfb-079e-11dd-913d-0040ca82&group=64651
164. http://www.feedblitz.com/adfaq.asp
165. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8MTQ1NzU3_
166. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Subscriptions=64651
167. http://www.feedblitz.com/f
168. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3x8ZXVnZW5AbGVpdGwub3JnfDE0NTc1Nw==_
169. http://www.feedblitz.com/
170. http://www.feedblitz.com/
Hidden links:
171. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp2.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_6x7dJlPdI/AAAAAAAAAY0/txhAw_PN1ZQ/s1600-h/sdn_designs.png
172. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp1.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_6ysNJlPeI/AAAAAAAAAY8/lhrOwMYRlbg/s1600-h/sdna2.JPG
173. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp2.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_5ZHdJlPbI/AAAAAAAAAYk/k2R0jOIT9ck/s1600-h/usgs2008assessment1.JPG
174. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp2.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_5Z9dJlPcI/AAAAAAAAAYs/WTH1annkSqU/s1600-h/USoil2007.JPG
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
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