[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Wed Apr 9 10:15:37 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]Elite individual power : who has it and what does it take ?
2. [4]Onchip photonic communications for 2017 computer processors
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]Elite individual power : who has it and what does it take ?
Many people who discess the enlightenment and social discuss the power
of the masses versus the power of the lite. The supporters of the
Enlightenment do not want "the elite" to roll back society to a more
fuedal looking power structure. Who are the elite and where does real
power reside ? [8]Newsweek has a relevant article.
The Fed brought together the leaders of the world's 14 major
financial firms, from five countries, representing 95 percent of
all the activity in global markets. The Swiss were there, the
Germans were there, the British were there. Interestingly, no
Asians were there, not even the Japanese. Goldman Sachs chairman
and CEO Lloyd Blankfein "jokingly called them 'the 14 families,'
like in 'The Godfather'," says Geithner. "And we said to them, "You
guys have got to fix this problem. Tell us how you are going to fix
it and we will work out some basic regime to make sure there are no
free riders to give you comfort; you know that if you move
individually everybody else will move with you."
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The people on the recent calls like those described by Geithner,
plus a few thousand more like them, not only in business and
finance, but also politics, the arts, the nonprofit world and other
realms, are part of a new global elite that has emerged over the
past several decades. I call it the "superclass." They have vastly
more power than any other group on the planet. Each of the members
is set apart by his ability to regularly influence the lives of
millions of people in multiple countries worldwide. Each actively
exercises this power, and often amplifies it through the
development of relationships with other superclass members. This
new class of elites is both more permeable, and more transient,
than elites of the past. The age of inherent lifelong power is
largely behind us--to be a member of this superclass one has to
hold on to power just long enough to make an impact, be it by
leading a revolution or launching a revolutionary Web site.
That such a group exists is indisputable. It includes the heads of
the biggest financial institutions, the 14 families Blankfein joked
about, and then some; the top 50 control almost $50 trillion in
assets. The heads of the world's biggest corporations are also
members; the top 2,000 support perhaps 500 million people, generate
almost $30 trillion in sales and have well over $100 trillion in
assets. The list also includes top government officials with real
cross-border influence: heads of state, of course, leading
diplomats and military chiefs, but also central bankers like
Geithner and Bernanke, and their counterparts like Chinese Central
Bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, reappointed this week, and the other top
economic officials responsible for the world's fastest-growing
economy and its nearly $1.5 trillion in reserves.
They are joined by [15]media barons like Rupert Murdoch, whose
global network of newspapers, Web products, movie studios and TV
stations reach hundreds of millions of people every day, or tech
entrepreneurs like Facebook wunderkind, 23-year-old Mark
Zuckerberg, whose company is redefining what global community
means. Alongside them you'll also find those who have different
forms of power: religious leaders from the pope to Iran's Ayatollah
Khamenei, perhaps the most powerful man in the Middle East today;
clerics who have taken to a media pulpit and reach millions around
the world daily like Latin America's Luis Palau or the Egyptian
"tele-Muslim," former accountant turned religious TV star Amr
Khaled. Cultural icons who use their celebrity platforms for
activism like Bono and Angelina Jolie would certainly make the
list, as would terrorist leaders and others who form a kind of
shadow elite, like Osama bin Laden or the recently arrested arms
dealer, Russia's Viktor Bout. A growing number of tycoons from
emerging markets make the cut: Indian industrialist Ratan Tata,
Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, Saudi oil investor Prince
Alwaleed bin Talal, and Chinese real-estate billionaire Yang
Huiyan, among others.
One can debate who is in and who is out endlessly. Indeed, given
that so much power today is institutional or job related (and thus
fleeting), any ranked list is out of date almost as soon as it's
finished.
A core group of somewhere between 6,000 and 7,000 people--meaning
that each one is "one in a million"
Says Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Wall Street's Blackstone Group,
"The world is pretty small. In almost every one of the areas in
which I am dealing or in which we at Blackstone are looking at
deals, you find it is just 20, 30 or 50 people worldwide who drive
the industry or the sector."
[16]For media access and influence for individuals one really needs to
have weekly audiences of 3 million+ to have not elite power but some
semblance of somewhat significant influence. Although this can be
greater if the influence over a smaller group is stronger. 10,000 in a
fanatical army willing to die for you versus 10 million casual
listeners (ditto heads).
For elite media power, moguls own multiple major newspapers, radio
stations, internet outlets and television stations in multiple
countries. The collective audience should exceed 200 million and be
around 500 million to one billion.
Media power is just one possible venue to achieve power. There is
political, military, wealth, corporate power etc...
FURTHER READING
[17]Where do people get there news
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[34]Onchip photonic communications for 2017 computer processors
Problems that need a lot of computing power and new architecture that
will be needed to enable that speed. Click on the pictures for a
larger image.
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[41]Communication challenge in ultradense computing devices. Chips are
not full speed because communication is not fast enough.
DARPA MoleApps-Aim: 10**15devices/ cm**3
Currently: 17 nm half-pitch,3.5*10**11 /cm**2 demonstrated
Communication speed of 80 TB/s for full speed 2017 chips
FURTHER READING
[42]Zettaflop workshop 2007
[43]Computational challenge for systems biology and personalized
medicine
[44]Prospects for computing beyond CMOS
[45]Programming techniques to harness Exaflops [and zettaflops]
Rethink hardware
-Parallelism is mainstream, but most cores are optimized for serial
performance
-Need to design hardware for power and parallelism
Rethink software
- Massive parallelism
- Eliminate scaling bottlenecks replication, synchronization
Rethink algorithms
- Massive parallelism and locality
- Counting Flops is the wrong measure
[46]Enabling technology for Zettaflops
Optical communication and nanomemory.
[47]Zettaflop architecture report
[48]Systems software for zettaflop systems
Things like billions of threads.
Energy of Computing in 2005
The biggest barrier to exaflops and zettaflops is the heat/power
problem. Transistors may be cheap, but the energy they dissipate is
not.
o Heat/power is not all in switching hardware; most of it is wattage
for communication and memory. And clock switching is increasingly
wasteful.
o In the long term, application programmers can help just as much as
hardware engineers, by being less sloppy with memory use and precision
demands.
We need to have new tools for analyzing power used in software. Less
precision is more energy efficient (use just enough precision).
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[del.icio.us]
* [68]More details on the Coskata process for converting garbage
into fuel (Cellullostic ethanol)
* [69]USGS Bakken oil study to be released Thursday, April 10, 2008
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80. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp0.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_sJ4riJnoI/AAAAAAAAAXc/gaouBC6Z-Jo/s1600-h/chipsof2017need.jpg
81. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp1.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_sKN7iJnpI/AAAAAAAAAXk/qTTZy4xBH6o/s1600-h/2017chipcomm.jpg
82. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp2.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_sKkLiJnqI/AAAAAAAAAXs/uBfE-dHKBqc/s1600-h/2017advancesneeded.jpg
83. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp3.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_sRmbiJntI/AAAAAAAAAYE/v9tWY07GTDc/s1600-h/energycomputing.jpg
84. http://www.feedblitz.com/t.asp?/64651/2987253/http://bp0.blogger.com/_VyTCyizqrHs/R_sSWriJnuI/AAAAAAAAAYM/fTReT7rTXNQ/s1600-h/chipsizewithcooling.jpg
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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