[tt] Next Big Future - 6 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Apr 8 10:07:06 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 6 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 6 new articles
1. [3]Europe works on road safety with long term goal of uncrashable
cars
2. [4]Intel forecasts Moore's law to continue until 2029
3. [5]Intel forecasts Moore's law to continue until 2029
[del.icio.us]
4. [6]More details on the Coskata process for converting garbage into
fuel (Cellullostic ethanol)
5. [7]USGS Bakken oil study to be released Thursday, April 10, 2008
6. [8]Nuclear plant security
7. [9]More Recent Articles
8. [10]Search Next Big Future
[11]Europe works on road safety with long term goal of uncrashable cars
[12]The largest road safety research project ever launched in Europe
will usher in a series of powerful road-safety systems for European
cars. But, in the long term, its basic, experimental research could
lead to a car that is virtually uncrashable. The technology would be
pushed to make crashes increasingly unlikely and mitigate crashes when
they do occur. Tiny differences have a huge impact on car safety.
Dropping speed by 1km/h can reduce accidents with injury by 3 per
cent, while braking fractions of a second sooner is enough to reduce
the damage caused dramatically.
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A truck exits suddenly from a side road, directly into your lane
only dozens of metres ahead. Suddenly, your car issues a warning,
starts applying the brakes and attempts to take evasive action.
Realising impact is unavoidable; in-car safety systems pre-tension
the safety belts and arm the airbag, timing its release to the
second before impact.
PReVENT has a budget of over EUR50 million and 56 partners pursuing
a broad, but highly complementary programme of research. A dozen
sub-projects focus on specific road-safety issues, but all projects
support and feed into each other in some way.
PReVENT project WILLWARN uses wireless communication with other
vehicles to alert the driver about potentially dangerous situations
ahead, while MAPS&ADAS reads sat-nav maps to track approaching
hazards, like bends, dips or intersections. SASPENCE looks at safe
driving distances and speed, while LATERALSAFE finally brings
active sensing to the blind spot.
Two projects, APALACI and COMPOSE, take this a step further,
actively tracking the speed and trajectories of surrounding
vehicles and other road users in real time. If one vehicle suddenly
stops, or a pedestrian suddenly steps onto the road, they swing
into action to rapidly calculate the implications.
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[35]Intel forecasts Moore's law to continue until 2029
[36]Pat Gelsinger, head of the Digital Enterprise Division at Intel,
says that Moore's Law will continue until 2029 with zettaflop
supercomputers at that time. [link is to his Intel Developers Forum
keynote address, 80 pages, From Petaflops to Milliwatts]
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Pat expects by 2017 it will be possible to create a complete genetic
simulation of a cell, which would require an exaflop (10 to the 18th
power floating-point operations) per second.
[43]I have covered Tensilica's configurable processors which could be
one of several approaches to accelerating or at least maintaining
Moore's law computer performance progress to exaflops and beyond
[44]From a 38 page study of detailing petaflop and exaflop scale
computing challenges
[45]Some have expressed concerns that silicon will stop having
performance improvement [from shrinking lithography stalling out] in
as little as four years.
[46]The Inquirer also has another quote from Pat Gelsinger on Moore's
law from the same event.
"I compare Moore's Law to driving down the road on a foggy night,
how far can you see? Does the road stop after 100 metres? How far
can you go?
"That's what it's been like with Moore's Law. We thought there were
physical limits and we casually speak about going to 10 nanometres.
"We have work going on different transistor structures. Silicon has
become scaffolding for the rest of the periodic table. We're
putting these other structures into the materials. We see no end in
sight and we've had 10 years of visibility for the last 30 years.
Intels chips now and future
Tukwila chip
- Quad-core with 30 MB cache core with 30 MB cache
- 2 billion transistors
- Multi-threading technology threading technology
- Intel QuickPath QuickPath interconnect interconnect
- Dual integrated memory controllers
- Estimate 2 times performance of dual core Itanium 9100 series
- Mainframe-class RAS
Dunnington 6 cores
- 45nm high-k technology
- 1.9B transistors
- 16 MB L3 cache
- Caneland socket compatible socket compatible
- Latest Intel virtualization technologies
- 2H'08
FURTHER READING
[47]Press room for the Intel Spring 2008 developer's forum
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[64]Intel forecasts Moore's law to continue until 2029 [del.icio.us]
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[76]More details on the Coskata process for converting garbage into fuel
(Cellullostic ethanol)
[77]Costaka's [78]process combines both biological (i.e., microbes)
and thermochemical (heat and chemicals) processing. This could
potential convert existing biomass sources in the United States to
provide 35% of current fuel usage.
Coskata can use a wide variety of feedstocks for making fuel: wood
chips, weeds and non-food crops like miscanthus, human waste, and
carbon-heavy garbage (such as tires). Biomass, ideally easy-to-grow
crops that don't require much water, will likely be the primary
feedstock. The ability to exploit various feedstocks reduces
exposure to crop failures or shortages. Coskata, which has received
an investment from General Motors, also makes fuel from the lignin
in biomass. Some companies making ethanol from strictly biological
processes can't use lignin to make fuel.
Conceivably, Coskata could even produce fuel from the carbon
monoxide from steel mills. If you could capture all of the carbon
monoxide that comes out of mills worldwide, you could make 50
billion gallons of fuel a year, or close to a third of the U.S.
annual consumption of fuel.
[79]I had a prior article on the Coskata process and company.
The first stage in Coskata's process revolves around converting the
feedstocks into synthetic gases. The different feedstocks can be
segregated and processed differently. Waste can be converted to gas
with plasma technology, for instance, while plant matter can be
gasified with less energy-intensive methods. This allows the company
to optimize on different gasification processes.
Once the syngas is produced, it is fed to microbes that convert it to
liquid fuels. The microbes live in large colonies that collect on
membranes. Fuel is produced when the gas passes through the membrane.
Part of the company's intellectual property revolves around coming up
with a way to let the microbes live as colonies and form slimes.
Less distillation. Microbes can create a fluid that is 15 percent
alcohol or so by volume but can't get it to 99 percent purity on their
own. That's why distilled spirits are stronger than beer.
Rather than fully distill the fluid, Coskata will distill to about 50
percent and then employ a membrane from Membrane Technology Research
in Menlo Park to purify it the rest of the way. This cuts processing
costs and energy. Coskata actually doesn't need the membrane to get to
$1 a gallon. "This is gravy," Roe said.
Coskata primarily wants to earn revenue and profits from licensing the
technology to big companies. like large forestry concerns, petroleum
producers, and chemical manufacturers.
The Cosksta process cuts greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent
(complete fuel lifecycle) compared with gas. It also uses less water
than most ethanol processes, which rely on food crops.
The Coskata $1 a gallon figure is how much the fuel will cost to
produce. It includes the cost of the feedstock, the cost of the energy
required to convert raw materials into fuel, and labor. It does not
include paying off the capital of the facilities, taxes, retail
mark-ups, or other expenses that can be added as the fuel wends its
way through distribution. An adjusted price is around $1.50 a gallon.
FURTHER READING
[80]Zeachem combines thermochemical and biological processes in a
different manner.
[81]Popular Mechanics description of the process
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[98]USGS Bakken oil study to be released Thursday, April 10, 2008
[99]USGS Bakken recoverable oil study will be released thursday, April
10, 2008
Sen. Byron Dorgan says the U.S. Geological Survey is slated to release
a study this week on the oil potential of the area known as the Bakken
formation.
The shale formation encompasses some 25,000 square miles in North
Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Dorgan says the study is to be released Thursday. He says it will
estimate the amount of oil that is recoverable in the Bakken using
current technology.
FURTHER READING
[100]USGS 1995 study and current decline rates
[101]Estimates of bakken oil size and timing
[102]Multistage fracturing horizontal drilling technique
[103]Bakken oil not fully valued
[104]Bakken oil is highly profitable
[105]A Saudi Arabia of oil in Bakken and Toquay formations in the USA
and Canada
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2008'
[122]Nuclear plant security
Some who are against nuclear power are trying to make a big deal about
[123]guards sleeping at nuclear plants where no one died and nothing
actually happened. Plus in one of the main incidents the guards were
sleeping "in the ready room".
They were not at the time [124]supposed to be guarding anything.
Similarly if a surgeon fell asleep in the operating room that would be
one thing but if they were in the break room then the impact is ??
In this case there were other guards at the necessary points.
Report on security guards for critical infrastructure shows
[125]5000-8000 guards among the 67 nuclear sites in the United States.
(some with multiple reactors).
NOTE: There is lot of other critical infrastructure and not just
nuclear plants. So all critical infrastructure needs an appropriate
level of security. Over protecting one type of thing does not help
overall security.
So about 100 guards per nuclear site.
Say 20-30 per shift.
If I have 15 on active duty and 5 taking a break, does it matter if
the 5 are on the toilet, eating or sleeping ?
Guards are not the only layer of security.
[126]Nuclear plant security review
Detection. At all four sites, the owners installed additional
cameras throughout different areas of the sites and instituted
random patrols in the owner-controlled areas.
Delay. The sites we visited installed a variety of devices designed
to delay attackers and allow security officers more time to respond
to their posts and fire upon attackers. The sites generally
installed these delay devices throughout the protected areas so
that attackers would have to defeat multiple security systems
before reaching vital areas or equipment. For example, the sites
installed fences outside the buildings housing the reactors and
other vital equipment and blocked off entrances to make it more
difficult for attackers to enter the buildings. Similarly, the
sites installed a variety of delay devices within the reactor and
other buildings, some of which are permanent and others that
security officers would deploy in the event of an attack.
Response. Each of the four sites we visited constructed
bullet-resistant structures at various locations in the protected
area or within buildings, increased the minimum number of security
officers defending the sites at all times, and expanded the amount
of training provided to them.
The new vehicle barrier systems consisted of rows of large
steel-reinforced concrete blocks, or (at one plant) large boulders
weighing up to 7 tons in combination with piles of smaller rocks.
(See fig. 3 for an illustration of a vehicle barrier system.) The
vehicle barrier systems either completely encircled the plants
(except for entrances manned by armed security officers) or formed
a continuous barrier in combination with natural or manmade terrain
features, such as bodies of water or trenches, that would prevent a
vehicle from approaching the sites.
While in many cases it may be true that increasing guard numbers
can make a
facility more secure, in other cases the relationship between guard
deployment and facility security may be less clear. In guarding,
quantity does not necessarily ensure quality. Analysts have
suggested several reasons why increasing the number of guards at a
given facility might not make it more secure, or might even make it
less secure.
- Guards can only meet "guardable" threats, such as physical
intrusion or surveillance by potential terrorists. Any number of
guards could not be expected to prevent attack by a commandeered
airliner, or a remote cyber-attack on facility safety systems.
- If the nature of a terrorist attack is potentially "guardable,"
but guards are not trained to recognize it, additional guards may
be no more likely to respond to it effectively than fewer guards.
- If an increase in the number of guards at a facility is
accomplished by making the existing force work more hours, the
guards may become fatigued, disgruntled, and, consequently, less
effective.
- Increasing the size of a guard force may lead to confusion about
individual responsibility and reporting relationships, which may
reduce guard effectiveness.
- Expanding a guard force may increase opportunities for hostile
"insiders" to infiltrate that force. Having a larger guard force,
however, might make it more difficult for such an insider to
successfully conduct hostile activities.
FURTHER READING
[127]A reporter visits a nuclear power plant.
Even inside the fenced and card-controlled area, there's razor-wire
around the exterior pipes. And that's the comparatively
low-security zone.
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----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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