[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Fri Apr 4 10:17:12 UTC 2008
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Subject: Next Big Future - 2 new articles
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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles
1. [3]Genetic makeup (gene UGT2B17) effects testosterone sports
doping drug test results
2. [4]Bakken oil from USGS 1995 and decline rates
3. [5]More Recent Articles
4. [6]Search Next Big Future
[7]Genetic makeup (gene UGT2B17) effects testosterone sports doping drug
test results
[8]From the Economist magazine, the genetic makeup of individuals
effects results of performance enhancing doping tests. It shows that
some dopers would not be caught with current tests and that some
innocent people would be accused. I think we just need to make better
safe forms of enhancement and then not worry about it.
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The production of TG (testosterone glucuronide)is controlled by an
enzyme that is, in turn, encoded by a gene called UGT2B17. This
gene comes in two varieties, one of which has a part missing and
therefore does not work properly. A person may thus have none, one
or two working copies of UGT2B17, since he inherits one copy from
each parent.
A researcher gave healthy male volunteers whose genes had been
examined a single 360mg shot of testosterone (the standard dose for
legitimate medical use) and checked their urine to see whether the
shot could be detected.
Nearly half of the men who carried no functional copies of UGT2B17
would have gone undetected in the standard doping test. By
contrast, 14% of those with two functional copies of the gene were
over the detection threshold before they had even received an
injection. The researchers estimate this would give a
false-positive testing rate of 9% in a random population of young
men.
Dr Schulze also says there is substantial ethnic variation in
UGT2B17 genotypes. Two-thirds of Asians have no functional copies
of the gene (which means they have a naturally low ratio of TG to
EG), compared with under a tenth of Caucasians--something the
anti-doping bodies may wish to take into account
Thus one third of asians could take testerone and not trigger an
anti-doping detection.
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[31]Bakken oil from USGS 1995 and decline rates
Here is a picture of the geological layers and formations in the
Williston basin (where a potential very large oil resource called the
Bakken formation is located).
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[38]I have previously discussed the great potential of the Bakken oil
resource.
[39]This information is from the 1995 US Geological Survey (USGS) of
the area.
A new USGS report is expected to be released this month (April, 2008).
UNCONVENTIONAL PLAYS, Continuous Type By James W. Schmoker (pages 9-17
of the 1995 USGS report)
3110. BAKKEN FAIRWAY PLAY
3111. BAKKEN INTERMEDIATE PLAY (HYPOTHETICAL)
3112. BAKKEN OUTLYING PLAY (HYPOTHETICAL)
Available evidence indicates that the Bakken Formation of Montana
and North Dakota has generated hundreds of billions of barrels of
oil. The overall Bakken unconventional continuous-type oil play is
bounded on the north by the Canadian border (a political rather
than geologic boundary), on the east, northwest, and west by
thermally controlled limits of oil generation, and on the southwest
by the Bakken subcrop. Within this area, the Bakken Formation is
considered to be oil saturated. However, drilling and production
data indicate that this entire area cannot be characterized by a
single play probability, success ratio, and estimated ultimate
recovery probability distribution. Consequently, the overall Bakken
play is partitioned into three smaller plays--the Bakken Fairway
(along the southwest subcrop), Bakken Intermediate, and Bakken
Outlying Plays (3110, 3111, and 3112, respectively).
The Bakken (Spanish Pool) wells in the Antelope field area have
produced about 12 million barrels of oil. As of July, 1993, 161
vertical Bakken wells (excluding the Spanish Pool) have produced
10,320,000 barrels of oil, and 202 horizontal wells have produced
12,233,000 barrels of oil. The Bakken Play is far from exhausted.
Potential additions to oil reserves are measured in the hundreds of
millions of barrels, in contrast to the tens of millions of barrels
produced to date. Full realization of these potential reserve
additions will probably depend upon improvements in technology,
economics, and geologic understanding.
FURTHER READING
[40]In 2007, North Dakota produced about 5 million barrels of oil from
the Bakken oil formation (about 13500 barrels of oil per day), Montana
about 50,000-60,000 barrels of oil per day and Saskatchewan about
30,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil per day.
There is a lot of drilling activity, but large scaling up of
production will require new pipelines to be built and new refineries,
which will take about five years.
[41]Bakkenshale blog has a couple of useful tables that analyze the
decline in production for wells that are being drilled in the Bakken
oil formation.
The initial production (IP) decline chart with cumulative
production thru January 2008 shows the average production over a
longer period is about 60% of what is produced in the first month.
[42]There is a discussion group on Bakken oil.
[43]You need 18 to 24 months of production to get a good feel for what
a well is going to ultimately produce.
It appears that if you average the first 2 to 3 months of "flush
production", the typical well might be producing 50% of this
average amount in 10 months to a year. After 15 to 18 months in
appears production has leveled off at a rate of about 25-30% of the
first 3 month average (with little regard to the IP rate).
Hopefully the decline from this point forward will hold at about
10%-15% per year.
The obvious exception to the scenario is the Petro-Hunt USA 2D in
the Charlson area. It's reported IP was 700 barrels per day. It's
16 month total production is 378,536 barrels and the most recent
month production was 1000 barrels per day.
Other cautions on every well: did they stay "in zone" while
drilling; did the zone get damaged while drilling; did the
direction of the lateral section optimize natural fracturing, did
the frac job get into the intended zones, and on and on. We'll all
be wiser in a few years as this data base grows and learning curve
goes higher.
This is a play brought on by technology: horizontal drilling and
fracing. Both of these will only get better and we've just
scratched the surface of the Middle-Bakken potential. Who knows
where the Three Forks will take us.
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