[tt] Next Big Future - 2 new articles

Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> on Thu Apr 3 11:06:18 UTC 2008

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"[2]Next Big Future" - 2 new articles

    1. [3]Energy plan
    2. [4]Constant threats and challenges to life, Bacteria needs to be
       emulated
    3. [5]More Recent Articles
    4. [6]Search Next Big Future

[7]Energy plan

   Updating and synthesizing my articles on energy into an energy plan. I
   will update this article with more updates and synthesize past and new
   information that I have gathered.
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   Short term
   Efficiency and drilling for regular and enhanced recovery, policy that
   discourages coal and fossil fuel and encourages nuclear and
   renewables. Try to reduce fuel usage 2-4% per year and try to increase
   oil from drilling and biofuels by 3-6% per year.
   Mid Term
   Big nuclear buildup and thermoelectric and transmission efficiency
   Triple nuclear power by 2020 by using new uprate technology and
   advanced thermoelectrics and some new plants. (25% from nuclear
   instead of 8.2% and 17% less fossil fuel. I would reduce coal first -
   30,000 deaths from coal air pollution, 60,000 deaths from combined
   coal and fossil fuel air pollution in the USA. Plus moving 1.2 billion
   tons of coal is 40% of freight rail traffic and 10% of diesel fuel
   usage.)
   Can get up to six times more nuclear by 2030. Displace all coal and a
   lot of oil.
   Mid-Long Term
   Very advanced nuclear fission and nuclear fusion and better renewables
   (geothermal, wind [kitegen, superconducting wind turbines], solar
   [concentrated solar], genetically modified organisms for biofuel)
   [14]BACKGROUND ON THE BIG ENERGY PICTURE
   Oil and fossil fuels are clearly critical in the near and mid-term and
   any shift away or reduction in usage is a very difficult task. Of the
   100 quadrillion BTUs that the US uses 85% comes from fossil fuels. (It
   coincidently means that 1 quad BTU is about equal to 1%. World usage
   is a little over 4 times more with a slightly different energy mix)
   (Dept of Energy figures for 2006)
   40% of that is from oil (20-22 million barrels per day about 12-13
   million barrels per day imported, recent high prices have dropped oil
   usage by 400,000 or so barrels per day, which is more than all
   geothermal, wind and solar combined)
   23% from coal (mainly supplying 50% of electricity)
   23% from natural gas
   8.2% nuclear
   3.3% wood based mainly, waste and biofuel
   2.9% hydro
   0.35% geothermal
   0.27% wind (3 year wait for a new turbine if you order today)
   0.07% solar (years to make factories, roof systems do not pay back
   costs to buy and install)
   Energy use is currently close to evenly split between residential home
   (electricity and heating), industrial and transportation.
   EFFICIENCY, CONSERVATION AND POLICY
   Home energy and industrial plant efficiency should be improved. Policy
   should be adjusted so that someone can more easily capture the return
   on efficiency investment. the problem is that I might not be motivated
   to put in more insulation and a better water heater and appliances if
   I am selling the place in a few years or if I am renting it out and
   not paying for utilities anyway).
   East coast homes using heating oil should be converted to electric
   heating.
   Only 14-16 million new cars and trucks each year out of about 300
   million cars and trucks in the USA (800million in the world) Need to
   get the old cars and trucks that are driven on the highway a lot
   retrofitted with aftermarket adjustments to make them more
   aerodynamic. highway mileage can be increased 25% fairly easily. Maybe
   10% of fuel for cars and trucks could be saved. This would mean 5% of
   total US oil or 1 million barrels per day. (5-10 years for a strongly
   supported program)
   Reduce highway speed limits back to 55 or 60 mph and other policy
   modifications.
   Hybrids and electric cars. Using ultracapacitors and batteries or all
   ultracapacitors.
   Mixing folding electric bikes/scooters with public transportation.
   [China is making 30 million electric bikes and scooters each year. In
   5-7 years most of the 500 million bike riders in China could shift to
   electric bikes and scooters]
   OIL
   There is quite a bit of oil in Alaska but it would take 5-10 years
   once we started to try and drill to get up to 1 million or so barrels
   per day. They talk about 10-40 billion barrels of oil there. I view it
   is a secondary and larger strategic oil reserve. If things get
   desperate enough for whatever reason it will be drilled.
   Nearer term and not controversial is the [15]Bakken oil field. Known
   for quite a while but until recently with high prices and new drilling
   tech not thought to be economic. [16]Now it is the hot and profitable
   new play in oil. USGS (geological survey) should release a new study
   in a month to confirm the size of it. Past estimates 200 - 800 billion
   barrels of oil in place. It is under North Dakota, South Dakota,
   Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. It is a thin layer of light oil
   (the good stuff sandwiched between shale).
   Many more agile oil firms are going after it (including what used to
   be called Enron.)
   Many of the wells are paying back in 3-12 months. Costs double to
   drill the horizontal wells with stacked fracturing versus a
   traditional well.
   About 100,000 barrels per day now. Maybe 250,000 barrels per day by
   the end of the year, Maybe double the year after. Saskatchewan in
   Canada is a bit ahead in drilling this play. North Dakota, Montana
   need to build refineries and pipelines to get the oil out in order to
   scale this up in say five years to million barrels per day plus.
   New Gulf of Mexico oil find by Chevron will also have significant oil
   in 5 years.
   [17]Enhanced oil recovery could tap more of the previously used wells.
   300 billion barrels could be extracted from old wells in the USA.
   Enhanced recovery can help recover more oil in Canada's oilsands and
   the US oil shale in colorado (but those are longer term projects)
   NUCLEAR
   In spite of almost no new reactors being built in the USA for 2-3
   decades, nuclear power has been increasing because of higher operating
   efficiency and power uprates (different kinds of traditional uprates
   +2%, +5% and +10-20%). Most gains from better operations.
   There is technology (from MIT and other places will take about ten
   years to fully deploy, could be faster but regulatory issues) that
   would enable increasing the power from current reactors by 30-50% by
   changing the coating and configuration (shape of the nuclear fuel).
   The fuel also makes the reactors safer.
   In 2015-2020 we should have built 10-20 of the 30-32 reactors that
   will have applied for licenses. New uprating technology could add the
   equivalent of 30-50 new reactors by making better fuel.
   [18]Idaho national labs plan for making current reactors better
   [19]McCain and Lieberman had a climate change bill that the EIA (DOE's
   energy information agency analysed). It could increase nuclear power
   by 20% by 2020 and triple it by 2030. Because any legislation that
   increases the cost of coal and natural gas means the next best option
   is nuclear for utilities. Coal plants are about as big and take
   several years to build similar to nuclear plants. China builds coal
   plants at 1 per week. 1984 there were 28 nuclear plants completed
   worldwide. 1974 there were 12 nuclear plants completed in the USA.
   THERMOELECTRIC
   Coal and nuclear reactors only use about 33% of the heat energy that
   they generate. Steam generator efficiency. Some plants are located
   where the low grade steam heat can be used for biofuel power input or
   new desalination.
   New thermoelectric technology (electronics to convert heat to
   electricity) could increase efficiency from 33% up to 45-60%. Again a
   huge boost. Some of this work is funded as part of the Freedomcar
   project (GE, Catipillar and others working on it). The other way to
   boost thermo efficiency would be to switch to new high temperature
   nuclear reactor designs. Higher temperatures allow for higher
   conversion.
   Current nuclear reactors as good as they are basically reactors
   designed for submarines during the 1950s. There were and are nuclear
   reactor designs that could use 98% of the nuclear fuel instead of 5%.
   Thus 93% of the "nuclear waste" which is unburned fuel could be used
   for energy generation. It would mean completing new reactor designs
   and building out new reactors (7-10 to new reactors another 10-15
   years to get significant build out.)
   OTHER TECHNOLOGY
   Possible breakthroughs with privately funded nuclear fusion projects.
   5-20 year timeframes if they work out.
   BACKGROUND READING
   [20]All external costs and internal costs compared for different
   energy sources
   [21]Current central power source analysis by the DOE
   [22]Specifics of the MIT 50% uprate with new fuel
   [23]Past standard uprates and operating efficiency gains, France is
   uprating about half of their reactors by 7%
   [24]Lifecycle CO2 analysis
   [25]EROEI comparison for different energy sources
   [26]Nuclear power build not materially constrained
   [27]Idaho national labs strategic plan for light water reactors would
   work out issues of preping the supply chain for 10+ reactors per year
   by the USA.
   [28]Staffing up nuclear power (other energy also has staffing and
   supply chain issues, 3 year wait for a wind turbine, grid buildout for
   serious shift to wind, new factories and supply chain for solar).
   [29]Idaho national labs strategic plan for light water reactors also
   addresses staffing.
   The EIA analysis of the effect of a climate change bill passing Two to
   three times more nuclear power from increased nuclear plant build. It
   does not consider the MIT work or the thermoelectrics.
   [30]Flex fuel substitution (which needs to be combined with
   genetically engineered biofuels)
   [31]Direct conversion of radiation into electricity and an alternative
   thermoelectric advance
   [32]Promising alternative private nuclear fusion projects (several
   have been privately funded

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[49]Constant threats and challenges to life, Bacteria needs to be emulated

   A couple of interesting posts about historical threats to civilization
   and life by Howard Bloom.
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   [56]Natural climate shifts and from space (not asteroids but
   interstellar gases).
   [57]Humans are not the most successful life, bacteria is the most
   successful. Bacteria has survived for 3.85 billion years. Humans for
   100,000 years. All other kinds of life lasted no more than 160 million
   years. If your numbers are not big enough and you are not diverse
   enough then something in nature eventually wipes you out.
   I think the point is that the Enlightment and life is not just about
   holding past gains. Fear and lack of confidence could allow a retreat
   in society or make human life more fragile. Emergencies can be used as
   excuses for theft or rollback of gains or enable choices that increase
   the fragility of humanity as a whole.
   We need to push forward with more confidence.
   More confident projects of high risk [but with the best planning to
   maximize the odds of success] and high reward.
   Using the nations of the world to allow the competent citizen to be as
   free and empowered as possible.
   example. there is no approved gene therapy procedure in the USA yet.
   China has had a gene therapy procedure approved since 2003.
   Medical tourism is something that perhaps a million people are doing.
   Insurance companies are shifting to making deals with overseas
   hospitals to send people (expenses paid) over to the foreign country
   for a treatment to save money for the insurance company and the
   patient (no deductibles etc...)
   Medical tourism is also being used to circumvent excessive
   restrictions.
   Use jurisdictions and find ways to make them more open to create
   competition for more freedom and access and power for individuals.
   Enable more open source, creative commons, collective research and
   projects.
   Better and more collaboration.

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----- End forwarded message -----
-- 
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A  7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

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