[tt] advanced nanotechnology - 7 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Tue Oct 9 11:34:53 UTC 2007
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Subject: advanced nanotechnology - 7 new articles
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"[2]advanced nanotechnology" - 7 new articles
1. [3]A billion millionaires in 2025? not likely
2. [4]Synthetic vascular system progess towards growth of engineered
tissue for transplants
3. [5]Petaflop plans progress
4. [6]NTT docomo's Super 3G and 4G plans
5. [7]Transcipt of my talk Economics in a new Era is up
6. [8]Sir Sir Arthur C. Clarke speaks about Sputnick and technology
7. [9]Bub1 Gene could be used to stop cancer growth
8. [10]More Recent Articles
9. [11]Search advanced nanotechnology
[12]A billion millionaires in 2025? not likely
James Canton, in his book "extreme Futures", has made a prediction
that there would be a billion millionaires in 2025.
IFRAME:
[13]http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=elegantconsul-20&o=1&p=8&l=st1&mode=b
ooks&search=0525949380&fc1=000000<1=&lc1=3366FF&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr
[14]On page 8 this 16 page pdf, we see that there are projected to be
8 billion people in 2025. A billion millionaires means that the person
at the 12.5th percentile would be a millinaire.
[15]The United States is the richest country, and in 2000, the mean
wealth was $144,000 per person. So the top 100 million adults in the
United States had $144,000 per person in 2000. (200 million adults in
the USA in 2000, so the top 50 percentile had 100 million.) Wealth
meaning net worth, where net worth is the value of physical and
financial assets less debts.
[USmedianfamilynetworthbynetworth.gif]
This graph shows the changes in net worth from 1989 to 2004 in the
United States. The poorest 75% have been mostly stagnant in their
growth of net worth. The top 25% have closed to doubled their net
worth. Following a similar pattern foward to 2025 then the top 15-25%
of the United States would be millionaires. This is constant dollars.
If one used future dollars which could have devalued then the top
50-75% could be millionaires in future devalued dollars. I think using
future probably devalued dollars is pointless.
[16]This is pdf that examines wealth in the world
To be in the top 10% in wealth in the world (in 2000) required $61,000
in assets, and more than $500,000 was needed to belong to the richest
1%, a group which -- with 37 million members worldwide.
Notice someone is in the middle in the USA is in the top 10% in the
world. The 70th percentile American was in the top 10% in the world.
The top 12.5 would be somewhat poorer.
[1518811672_fcfe3989c8.jpg?v=0]
Here is a distribution of where the wealthiest 10% were in the world
in 2000.
Using currency exchange rates, global household wealth amounted to
$125 trillion in the year 2000, equivalent to roughly three times the
value of total global production (GDP) or to $20,500 per person.
So for the top 12.5% in the world to become millionaires then the
non-US population of the world would have to have far better wealth
accumulation than the people in the US who are in the 75th to 25th
percentile. This is conceivable as there will be large numbers in
China who will become affluent. However, I do not think it is possible
to the degree needed to get to one billion millionares in 2025.
If the world was following the US wealth distribution changes and
those changes matched the 1989-2004 period, then the US would still
have 25% of all of the wealthy 10% and only 1/3 of those americans
would be millionaires. So the top 3.3% of the world or about 264
million people in 2025. World GDP has growing at 5% per year, while
the USA is growing at 2.7% per year. Assuming this trend continues
then the average person in the non-USA portion would gain 40-50% on
the person in the United States. We can be generous and say that
instead of the 10% person having less than half of the US mean of
$144,000 then they catch up. But the average person in the United
States is not projected to be a millionaire. It is the top 25% in the
USA. So only the top 5% of the world would qualify. This would be 400
million people in the world.
For the person at the 12.5th percentile to be a millionaire then the
next 600 million people would have to make 4 to 6 times more. People
would have to be accumulating wealth with 8-11% per year better than
they have been. Those people who had $50,000 in net worth would have
to increase their net worth by 17% per year.
The top 12.5% would probably have about 80% of the worlds net worth.
The top 10% in the world have 71% of the wealth. The top 2% had 50%.
So the top 12.5 to 2% would have about 30% of the worlds wealth. One
billion millionaires would mean that the worlds net worth would have
increased to over 3,000 trillion in order for the poorest of the top
12.5% to have over one million dollars in net worth. This would be a
24 times increase from wealth in the year 2000. This would be an
average of about 20% per year growth in world wealth from 2008
onwards.
So I would be projecting 400-500 million millionaires in 2025. Unless
you are using future devalued dollar pesos.
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[30]Synthetic vascular system progess towards growth of engineered tissue
for transplants
[31]One day soon, laboratories may grow synthetically engineered
tissues such as muscle or cartilage needed for transplants. In a major
step forward, Cornell engineers describe in the journal Nature
Materials a microvascular system they have developed that can nourish
growing tissues.
The researchers have engineered tiny channels within a water-based
gel that mimic a vascular system at the cellular scale and can
supply oxygen, essential nutrients and growth factors to feed
individual cells. The so-called gel scaffold can hold tens of
millions of living cells per milliliter in a 3-D arrangement, such
as in the shape of a knee meniscus, to create a template for tissue
to form.
In theory, the system could accommodate many kinds of tissue.
The research provides solutions to the physical engineering aspects
of growing tissues synthetically. Still, many biological challenges
remain, such as finding a source of cells that can be harvested
from a patient and grown without changing the cell's
characteristics. Co-author Lawrence Bonassar, a Cornell associate
professor of biomedical engineering who was instrumental in
developing the gel for tissue growth and in determining the proper
biological requirements for cell growth, is also among those trying
to direct stem cells to produce desired tissue types. Currently,
stem cell-derived cartilage has been made but is not functional.
As new tools develop, researchers hope to use these engineered
tissues in non-clinical applications, such as replacements for
animals in the testing of pharmaceuticals and chemicals. The
technology, researchers believe, also offers the hope of growing
implants from the patient's own cells to replace damaged or
diseased tissue.
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engineered tissue for transplants'
[45]Petaflop plans progress
[46]The Blue Gene/P machine at Argonne is supposed to reach one
petaflop -- 1 quadrillion sustained operations per second -- in 2008.
It should have a peak speed of three petaflops by the end of 2008.
Turek said IBM's goal was 10 petaflops by 2011 and 20 petaflops by
2017. The Japanese have announced their intent to reach 10 petaflops
by 2012.
FURTHER READING
[47]IBM and Google have dedicated a large cluster of several hundred
computers (a combination of Google machines and IBM BladeCenter and
System x servers) that is planned to grow to more than 1,600
processors.
Students will access the cluster via the Internet to test their
parallel programming course projects. The servers will run open
source software including the Linux operating system, XEN systems
virtualization and Apache's Hadoop project, an open source
implementation of Google's published computing infrastructure,
specifically MapReduce and the Google File System (GFS).
[48]Sony PS3's have helped the Folding at Home project to pass a petaflop
in processing power during Sept 2007
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[62]NTT docomo's Super 3G and 4G plans
[63]IEEE spectrum reports on a live NTT test of Super 3G.
DoCoMo has taken on something of a leading role in promoting Super
3G inside the 3G Partnership Project (3GPP) a consortium of
wireless operators and vendors, including Vodafone, Lucent,
Motorola, and Nokia, working to create global specifications for 3G
technologies. Essentially, Super 3G is targeting a useable download
transmission speed of around 100 Mbps, with an uplink speed of 50
Mbps, and reaching much higher peak speeds in both cases.
At CEATEC DoCoMo gave its first public demonstration of the
technology that is still under development and which is not
expected to be deployed until 2010.
[64]Prior press releases in July, 2007 indicated the commercial
rollout plans targeting 2010.
Super 3G represents a break with the current 3G infrastructure, so it
will require a new round of heavy investment before it can be
deployed. That's the bad news. The good news is that the same
infrastructure can be used for future 4G systems. As a DoCoMo staffer
said, "We see Super 3G as being a bridge to 4G." And one that Japanese
users no doubt will be the first to step across.
Super 3G holds the promise of allowing download speeds as fast as
300Mbps and upload speeds of 80Mbps. It uses the same radio
spectrum band as current 3G services. NTT DoCoMo plans to launch a
network based on the technology by 2010.
The technology could be seen as a steppingstone between current 3G
technologies like W-CDMA and 1xEV-DO and 4G technologies such as
UMB and WiMAX.
NTT DoCoMo is even looking past Super 3G towards those 4G
technologies. In fact, late last year the carrier was successful in
getting about 5Gbps data speeds to a receiver moving at about 10
kilometers per hour (6 mph).
[65]This [4G technology] is a technology that is probably not going
to [be widely implemented] until 2013."
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[79]Transcipt of my talk Economics in a new Era is up
[80]The transcript of my recent talk at the nanobio conference is up
[81]The powerpoint for my presentation is available for download from
the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
[82]I have provided some clarification of a couple of points in my
presentation which were reported at the Register (UK news site)
[83]Further improvements to the pre-molecular manufacturing
capabilities continue to be made with better nanoimprinting and
[84]progress towards synthetic life and [85]$100 human genome
sequencing possible in 5 years
[86]Here is a review of the status of some of my past predictions of
the future
[87]I will next be speaking at the Foresight 2007 vision weekend, a
Senior Associate gathering
[88]I will be speaking about Convergence technologies Anticipating
shortcuts, convergence (Molecular Manufacturing (MM), pre-MM and other
technology) and high impact opportunities.
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[101]Rate 'Transcipt of my talk Economics in a new Era is up'
[102]Sir Sir Arthur C. Clarke speaks about Sputnick and technology
[103]Sir Arthur C Clarke makes several interesting observations of the
past and the future.
On the past:
Launching Sputnik and landing humans on the Moon were all political
decisions, not scientific ones, although scientists and engineers
played a lead role in implementing those decisions. (I have only
recently learned, from his long-time secretary Carol Rosin, that
Wernher von Braun used my 1952 book, The Exploration of Space, to
convince President Kennedy that it was possible to go to the Moon.)
As William Sims Bainbridge pointed out in his 1976 book, The
Spaceflight Revolution: A Sociological Study, space travel is a
technological mutation that should not really have arrived until
the 21st century. But thanks to the ambition and genius of von
Braun and Sergei Korolev, and their influence upon individuals as
disparate as Kennedy and Khrushchev, the Moon--like the South
Pole--was reached half a century ahead of time.
I hope that nations can at last see better reasons for exploring
space, and that future decisions would be informed by intelligence
and reason, not the macho-nationalism that fuelled the early Space
Race.
For those who need some background on his next quote:
And in the heady days of Apollo, we seemed to be on the verge of
exploring the planets through manned missions. I could be forgiven
for failing to anticipate all the distractions of the 1970s that
wrecked our optimistic projections--though I did caution that the
Solar System could be lost in the paddy fields of Vietnam. (It
almost was.)
One of the reasons that the Space program lost all momentum after
Apollo was that the US budget was strained paying for the Vietnam war,
which can be clearly seen in hindsight as a waste of money. [104]Time
magazine discusses over $100 billion/year was spent in 1971
[105]Nasa spending was far less
1971 3.381 billion in 1971 dollars or 12.356 billion inflation
adjusted.
Arthur C clarkes three wishes for the future:
1. A method to generate limitless quantities of clean energy.
2. Affordable and reliable means of space transport.
3. Eliminating the design faults in the human body
[Note: I interpret item 3 as a a weakly transhumanist statement]
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technology'
[119]Bub1 Gene could be used to stop cancer growth
[120]A protein in our cells called `Bub 1' is essential for normal
cell division to take place; if the gene that generates Bub 1 is
`switched off' then the cells are unable to divide successfully.
Now that scientists understand the precise role of Bub 1 in normal
cell division, as well as what goes wrong when the gene is missing,
they plan to test their theory on cancer cells.
"Unlike some other genes that become mutated in cancer cells, the
Bub 1 gene appears normal indicating that it behaves in exactly the
same way in cancer cells as it does in healthy cells.
"If this is the case, then we can be confident that switching it
off will stop cancer cells proliferating too. And while our normal
cells don't divide that often, cancer cells divide more frequently,
so hopefully by targeting Bub1 we will selectively kill cancer
cells."
Equally exciting, says Dr Taylor, is the fact that drugs are
already being developed that are able to block the actions of Bub
1-type enzymes, known as `protein kinases'; such kinase blockers or
`inhibitors' are already providing a whole new approach to tackling
cancer and Bub1 inhibitors may be another weapon in the
oncologist's arsenal.
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More Recent Articles
* [134]synthetic chromosome created, First Synthetic Life within
weeks
* [135]Hillary Clinton on Science
* [136]Skewing the odds for possible superior genetic results
* [137]Pro-nuclear ruling in the USA
* [138]Human embryonic stem cells remain embryonic because of
epigenetic factors
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64. http://www.betanews.com/article/NTT_DoCoMo_Tests_SuperFast_Wireless_Data/1184348876
65. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun06/3672
66. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=Ui4oVyS0
67. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=0nbXt8JF
68. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=mD19rFQD
69. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=xQuzxPND
70. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=8XZ5IPfL
71. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=sQC7aiMm
72. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=S2TVZ7J5
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80. http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/people-blog/?p=305
81. http://www.crnano.org/Wang.pps
82. http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/09/some-clarification-of-my-crn.html
83. http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/10/catalysts-to-stamp-nanopatterns-with-1.html
84. http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/10/synthetic-chromosome-created-first.html
85. http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/10/100-human-genome-project.html
86. http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/09/reviewing-some-of-my-predictions-no.html
87. http://www.foresight.org/SrAssoc/2007/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
88. http://www.foresight.org/SrAssoc/2007/wiki/index.php/Convergence_Technologies
89. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=vUKlfuY0
90. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=BLdGnwDb
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92. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=QwINGgGp
93. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=8rF7nsJy
94. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=C0woLE6k
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103. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/oct07/5584
104. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,909470,00.html
105. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_Budget
106. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=OVjSn4uw
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120. http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-10/uom-gmh100807.php
121. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=nwZahXMZ
122. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=mhY3sFkl
123. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=B8jpLdnO
124. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=43hEmrAW
125. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=rbeFC3Ts
126. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=4IAABxtW
127. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=MAvLKOdN
128. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/blogspot/advancednano?a=THo42Osq
129. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Fwd2FriendEdit=64651;171888;http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/167020936/bub1-gene-could-be-used-to-stop-cancer.html;Bub1%20Gene%20could%20be%20used%20to%20stop%20cancer%20growth;92965
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135. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/165905400/hillary-clinton-on-science.html
136. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/165852832/skewing-odds-for-possible-superior.html
137. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/165742516/pro-nuclear-ruling-in-usa.html
138. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/165564365/human-embryonic-stem-cells-remain.html
139. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=d82036b7-7657-11dc-af89-0040ca82&group=64651
140. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8OTI5NjU=_
141. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Subscriptions=64651
142. http://www.feedblitz.com/f
143. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3x8ZXVnZW5AbGVpdGwub3JnfDkyOTY1_
144. http://www.feedblitz.com/
145. http://www.feedblitz.com/
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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