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10 Businesses Facing Extinction in 10 Years
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10 Businesses Facing Extinction in 10 Years
7.9.19

They're going, going and may be completely gone by 2017. Check out
their odds of survival.

By Geoff Williams

Determining which industries aren't long for this world may seem
easy enough. But some types of businesses, such as telemarketing,
are surprisingly hard to kill. And then again, other industries,
probably the ones you're sad to see go, can't find a way to
survive.

So start setting up your office pool, because here are our picks
for 10 businesses facing extinction in 10 years.

Record stores: Record stores are closing in, well, record numbers.
One of the most prominent music retailers, Tower Records, shut down
all 89 stores last year after concluding it couldn't withstand the
onslaught of online music stores and chains like Wal-Mart, which
can offer lower prices and sell other items to offset the smaller
number of CDs being sold.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Great, if you consider Wal-Mart a
record store.

Camera film manufacturing: This probably isn't the best business to
get into right now.  According to The Chicago Tribune, from May
2006 to May 2007, the volume of prints made from digital cameras
grew by 34 percent. Film camera sales, meanwhile, fell by 49
percent, while digital cameras sales continued to grow--by 5
percent. Of American internet users, 70 percent own a digital
camera; another survey shows that 70 percent of Canadians now use a
digital camera.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Some entrepreneurs who specialize in
making camera film for amateur photographers could possibly make a
living.

Crop dusters: They'll be around in 10 years, but likely not in
their present form. The average age of the typical crop duster is
60, the number of crop dusters is dwindling, and the profession can
be dangerous. Just several weeks ago, an Arkansas crop dusting
company was ordered to stop flying in Iowa after spraying farm
workers with a fungicide; 36 farm hands in a cornfield had to be
decontaminated by a hazardous materials crew.
Odds of survival in 10 years:  The type of crop dusting plane that
chased after Cary Grant in North by Northwest will have almost
certainly gone south. Farmers say that they'll always need crop
dusters, even though new technologies have made them less important
than in the past. But commercial airlines are increasingly taking
business away from the small, independent crop dusters.

Gay bars: As The Orlando Sentinel noted in a recent article, around
the country gay bars have been going out of business as gay men and
women have been gaining greater acceptance in society. What used to
be a hangout for people who felt unwelcome elsewhere is becoming
less necessary.
Odds of survival in 10 years: As with many industries, the very
best of them will endure; the rest won't.

Newspapers: Some people thought they were through when radio and TV
news came about. Even after the fax machine revolutionized offices,
some people predicted that everyone would have their news faxed in,
since that would be quicker than relying on a newspaper. But the
numbers have been falling precipitously since the 1990s when the
internet came on the scene. In the past year, the Audit Bureau of
Circulations twice has posted drops averaging 2.1 and 2.8 percent
over six-month periods. Newsrooms across the country have been
hemorrhaging staff.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They won't disappear; they'll be on
the internet. We don't recommend startups investing a lot of money
into a printing press plant.

Pay phones: In 1997, there were more than 2 million pay phones in
the U.S.; now there are approximately half as many. There are
probably always going to be certain places like airports and hotels
that offer pay phones, as long as there are people who don't own or
can't afford cell phones. Because phone kiosks on the streets are a
favorite for drug dealers, who don't want to have their own numbers
tapped and tracked, cities are shedding them.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be around, but won't be
anything to call home about.

Used bookstores: They've been closing fast, and those that are
still open are relying on what's making them obsolete: the
internet. A used bookstore used to be the place to find that
beloved, out-of-print children's book you used to read 17 times a
day until your little sister flushed it down the toilet. Now you
just type that title in a search engine and order it within
minutes.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Some of them will still be eking out
an existence, but the handwriting is on the wall.

Piggy banks: You may chuckle, but as we continue gravitating toward
a paperless society, it's not difficult to imagine a day when piggy
banks no longer exist.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Sure, they'll probably still be a few
around--in antique shops.

Telemarketing: The good news for people who hate telemarketing
calls is that the industry may finally be dying; the bad news is
that it may take a while. Telemarketing has been hit hard by the
national Do-Not Call list that was established five years ago, and
sales have been stagnant, but the industry still managed to bring
in $393 billion in revenue last year. Some of this is due to clever
marketing. This includes holding raffles at shopping malls; when
you sign your information, you agree to accept calls from the
company running the contest and its partners. Cell phones are
exempt from automated telemarketing calls, but not from individuals
calling. Then there are occasional windows of opportunity: The
national Do-Not Call list is set to expire in 2008, unless you
remember to register again.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be here. Humbled, more
impotent, but probably still here.

Coin-operated arcades: With Nintendo Wii, casual gaming online and
the Xbox 360, the video game arcade industry is thriving, but not
the standalone brick-and-mortar arcades. For those of you who
thought arcades were already dead, they still exist--at movie
theaters, miniature golf courses and other touristy spots--but it
seems only a matter of time before they vanish from the landscape.
Ten years ago, there were 10,000 arcades in the nation, and now the
number is close to 3,000, according to the American Amusement
Machine Association. Revenue from arcade game units brought in $866
million last year, which sounds good until you consider that in
1994, the industry was pocketing $2.3 billion and that the profits
are only still high because it costs so much to play a game.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Game over.