[tt] [x-risk] Regional nuclear war could trigger mass starvation

Wed Oct 3 16:54:08 UTC 2007

----- Forwarded message from "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu>
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From: "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu> Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2007
12:00:26 -0400 To: For discussion of existential risks
<existential at transhumanism.org> Subject: [x-risk] Regional nuclear war could
trigger mass starvation Reply-To: For discussion of existential risks
<existential at transhumanism.org>

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn12728

Regional nuclear war could trigger mass starvation

    * 13:17 03 October 2007

    * NewScientist.com news service

    * Rob Edwards

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan could cause one billion people to
starve to death around the world, and hundreds of millions more to die from
disease and conflicts over food.

That is the horrifying scenario being presented in London today by a US
medical expert, Ira Helfand. A conference at the Royal Society of Medicine
will also hear new evidence of the severe damage that such a war could
inflict on the ozone layer.

"A limited nuclear war taking place far away poses a threat that should
concern everyone on the planet," Helfand told New Scientist. This was not
scare mongering, he adds: "It is appropriate, given the data, to be
frightened."

Helfand is an emergency-room doctor in Northampton, Massachusetts, US, and a
co-founder of the US anti-nuclear group, Physicians for Social
Responsibility. In his study he attempted to map out the global consequences
of India and Pakistan exploding 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear warheads.  Global
hoarding

Earlier studies have suggested that such a conflict would throw five million
tonnes of black soot into the atmosphere, triggering a reduction of 1.25°C in
the average temperature at the earth's surface for several years. As a
result, the annual growing season in the world's most important
grain-producing areas would shrink by between 10 and 20 days.

Helfand points out that the world is ill-prepared to cope with such a
disaster. "Global grain stocks stand at 49 days, lower than at any point in
the past five decades," he says. "These stocks would not provide any
significant reserve in the event of a sharp decline in production. We would
see hoarding on a global scale."

Countries which import more than half of their grain, such as Malaysia, South
Korea and Taiwan, would be particularly vulnerable, Helfand argues. So, too,
would 150 million people in north Africa, which imports 45% of its food. Many
of the 800 million around the world who are already officially malnourished
would also suffer.

Large-scale impacts on food supplies from global cooling are credible because
they have happened before, Helfand says. The eruption of the Indonesian
volcano Tambora in 1815 produced the "year without a summer" in 1816, causing
one of the worst famines of the 19th century.  Mass starvation

The global death toll from a nuclear war in Asia "could exceed one billion
from starvation alone", Helfand concludes. Food shortages could also trigger
epidemics of cholera, typhus and other diseases, as well as armed conflicts,
which together could kill "hundreds of millions".

Another study being unveiled at today's conference suggests that the smoke
unleashed by 100, small, 15 kiloton nuclear warheads could destroy 30-40% of
the world's ozone layer. This would kill off some food crops, according to
the study's author, Brian Toon, an atmospheric scientist from the University
of Colorado in Boulder, US.

The smoke would warm the stratosphere by up to 50°C, accelerating the natural
reactions that attack ozone, he says. "No-one has ever thought about this
before," he adds, "I think there is a potential for mass starvation."

Such dire predictions are not dismissed by nuclear experts, though they
stress the large uncertainties involved. The fallout from a nuclear war
between India and Pakistan "would be far more devastating for other countries
than generally appreciated," says John Pike, director of the US think tank,
globalsecurity.org. "Local events can have global consequences."

Dan Plesch from the University of London's School of Oriental and African
Studies, agrees that everyone is at risk from a limited nuclear war. "We live
in a state of denial that our fate can be determined by decisions in
Islamabad and New Delhi as much as in Washington and Moscow," he says.

Related Articles

    * 'Nuclear winter' may kill more than a nuclear war

    * http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn11287

    * 01 March 2007

    * 'Nuclear winter' could bring years of failed crops

    * http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg19426073.300

    * 11 June 2007

Weblinks

    * Royal Society of Medicine * http://www.rsm.ac.uk * Physicians for
Social Responsibility * http://www.psr.org * Brian Toon, University of
Colorado at Boulder * http://atoc.colorado.edu/people/toon.php

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