[tt] advanced nanotechnology - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
<eugen at leitl.org> on
Thu Nov 15 09:44:43 UTC 2007
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Subject: advanced nanotechnology - 4 new articles
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"[2]advanced nanotechnology" - 4 new articles
1. [3]China taking leadership in renewable power deployment
2. [4]32 megajoule rail gun delivered for naval testing
3. [5]Staffing an expanding nuclear industry
4. [6]Other progress in quantum computing
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search advanced nanotechnology
[9]China taking leadership in renewable power deployment
[10]Worldwatch indicates that China will likely achieve--and may even
exceed--its target to obtain 15 percent of its energy from renewables
by 2020. If China's commitment to diversifying its energy supply and
becoming a global leader in renewables manufacturing persists,
renewable energy could provide over 30 percent of the nation's energy
by 2050.
China's carbon dioxide emissions are on the rise and are expected
to exceed total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions shortly, although
Chinese per-capita emissions remain about one-sixth those of the
United States.
More than $50 billion was invested in renewable energy worldwide in
2006, and China is expected to invest over $10 billion in new
renewables capacity in 2007, second only to Germany. Wind and solar
energy are expanding particularly rapidly in China, with production
of wind turbines and solar cells both doubling in 2006. China is
poised to pass world solar and wind manufacturing leaders in
Europe, Japan, and North America in the next three years, and it
already dominates the markets for solar hot water and small
hydropower.
A combination of ambitious targets supported by strong government
policies and the manufacturing prowess of the Chinese may enable
China to "leapfrog" so-called industrialized nations in renewable
technology in the years immediately ahead
The article indicates that nuclear energy could provide about 5% of
china's power needs. I think that target will be reached in 2020 (with
50-70 GW of nuclear power). I think China will exceed that percentage
with around 100 more nuclear plants from 2020-2030 (up to 10-15% of
electricity) and then 200-400 more nuclear plants from 2030-2050 (up
to 30-40% of electricity.
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[24]32 megajoule rail gun delivered for naval testing
[25]BAE Systems has delivered a functional, 32-megajoule
Electro-Magnetic Laboratory Rail Gun (32-MJ LRG) to the U.S. Naval
Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren, Va. Installation of the laboratory
launcher is currently underway, and according to BAE, this is the
first step toward the Navy's goal of developing a tactical
64-megajoule ship-mounted weapon.
[rail-guns-navy.jpg]
Eight and 9-megajoule rail guns have been fired before, but
providing 3 million amps of power per shot has been a limitation.
At 32 megajoules, this new system appears to be the most powerful
rail gun ever built, and the Office of Naval Research is installing
additional capacitors at the Dahlgren facility to support it. The
planned 64-megajoule weapon, if it's ever built, could require even
more power--a staggering 6 million amps.
The Navy's electrically-propelled DDG 100 Destroyer, Chaboki says,
is a prime candidate for the final 64-megajoule system. Around 72
megawatts (MW) of the vessel's power can be used for propulsion.
But during combat, the destroyer's speed could be brought down,
freeing up energy for a rail gun. Chaboki calculates that firing
the 64-megajoule weapon six times per minute would require 16 MW of
power, which would be supplied by either onboard capacitors or
pulsed alternators.
Effective rail guns will require a major breakthrough in materials
between now and 2020, to keep the guns themselves from being
shredded by each high-velocity barrage.
[26]There was a 2003 analysis of using railguns for orbital launches.
For launch to orbit, even long launchers (>1000 m) would need to
operate at accelerations >1000 gees to reach the required
velocities, so that it would only be possible to launch rugged
payloads, such as fuel, water, and material. A railgun system
concept is described here and technology development issues are
identified. Estimated launch costs could be attractively low
(<$600/kg) compared with the Space Shuttle (>$20 000/kg), provided
that acceptable launch rates can be achieved.
[27]A european space agency study of rail guns for space launches
[2024376651_80451a7430.jpg?v=0]
A system to launch single stage rocket propelled projectiles to put
in orbit nano-satellites using a 3.4 GJ railgun with a length of
180 m.
RELATED READING
[28]Ram accelerators would be cheaper and quicker to develop for gun
launching payloads into space.
[29]Superthread carbon nanotubes would be the kind of material needed
to help reinforce the rail gun
[30]There is other progress being made on better materials including
nanograin metals.
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[44]Staffing an expanding nuclear industry
Skilled workforce shortages are common across industries. (Nursing
etc...)
Besides spinning up new training and increasing recruitment the issue
can also be addressed with increased automation, design and process
improvement to reduce staffing requirements. The issue of staffing the
nuclear industry is a known issue and is often cited as a reason that
the nuclear industry cannot expand.
The number nuclear engineers being trained is increasing, college
programs are being expanded or restarted and companies like General
electric have initiated agressive recruitment programs. There is also
the significant changes via design and management processes that are
reducing staffing requirements per operating plant. There are 60,000
skilled nuclear workers and 20,000 of them could retire over the next
five years, plus thousands more will be needed for new plants in the
USA and around the world.
[2023306065_d3b35c652d.jpg?v=0]
[45]Comparison of some staffing levels for different modern nuclear
plant designs. Avg nuclear plant staffing levels were 1000-1200 in the
mid-90s (already down from 1970s and 1980s when it was about 1500
people per plant). New designs with staffing levels of 440-700 would
reduce the staffing needs further. While there has been staff
reductions all of the safety and operational metrics have been
improving for the last three decades. Avg staffing levels are now at
about 790-800 people.
Since staff costs typically account for more than half of a plant's
O&M cost, reducing staff should reduce O&M costs. Design concepts
for new plants have focused on reducing the operations burden and
thereby reducing staff, which leads to staff reduction and should
ultimately lower operating costs.
This study used a task-based approach to determinine plant staff
requirements for specific plant operation tasks. Starting with the
staffing profile of a top-rated plant (North Anna), the study team
reviewed the details of the new designs to determine if the
advances in technology and information reporting would reduce
overall staffing levels. Each task associated with plant operation
was taken into account. A staff model was developed for each
reactor type. This model maintains an adequate staff level to meet
regulatory and best practice requirements.
The first new plants built in the United States will rely heavlily
on current operational practices to ensure that the lessons learned
over the more than 30 years of plant operation will be applied to
the newest generation of plants. Therefore, for the purposes of
this study, the organizational structure from the current operating
philosophy was maintained. Although current staff structures differ
between operating companies, they have a single overall goal--to
reduce human error and equipment failure in all phases of plant
operation and safety and to ensure an overall high operating
capacity factor.
The staffing estimates used in this study include the onsite plant
staff as well as additional staff that would be needed in the
corporate office to support the additional units. These estimates
also include corporate office support staff, which includes the
staff who provide fuel design and procurement, safety analysis
support, major modification development, and other more generic
activities.
[46]Overcoming the challenges of the workforce issues and knowledge
maintenance.
[goodnight45.gif]
US Nuclear industry staffing levels
Once base power rates were established through public utility
commissions, opportunities for cost reductions through labor
savings became available. By the mid-1980s, U.S. nuclear plant
operators began looking for opportunities to reduce cost through
staffing reductions. The next major adjustment in personnel levels
in the U.S. began in mid 1990s with programs to "right size" the
employee workforce. While effectively improving performance in
terms of capacity factor, safety performance, and reduced refuel
outage durations, U.S. NPPs began to consistently reduce employee
staffing levels. Since 1997 average U.S. NPP staffing levels have
dropped by more than 15%. These reductions appear to have recently
leveled off.
As part of the reduction of total staff, along with the technical
nature and training requirements for operating NPPs, employee
skills set have become very focused. To offset this situation, most
U.S. NPPs proactively encourage rotation and cross training of
staff. This approach provides "bench strength" to provide
additional personnel with experience and/or training while
maintaining lower overall staffing levels.
Consolidation of NPPs into operating fleets has had a beneficial
impact on developing and maintaining key knowledge.
[goodnight6.gif]
Dealing with staffing reductions.
Getting nuclear engineering enrollment to 2000-4000 would turn out
700-1400 graduates per year who would help to stablize and eventually
increase the nuclear workforce. GE and other companies could step up
and offer more scholarships and incentives to further increase
enrollment and provide university endowments to created new programs.
Get enrollment up to 8000 and 2800/year graduates should be produced.
Increase to 16,000 enrolled for 5600/year in graduates. Increase to
32,000 enrolled for 10,200/year in graduates. There are 104 plants in
the USA now and with 800 people per plant the staffing level must be
83,000. Of those 60,000 have special industry skills. In 2017, if the
increased training and recruitment programs restore the workforce to
60,000 people and the staffing requirements for old plants are brought
to 20% less and new plants only need 400 skilled staff then 30 new
plants could be adequately staffed. Further recruitment and training
would allow for more industry growth. 300 plants by 2030 in the USA
with 400 skilled staff per plant would require 120,000 people. In the
2010-2020 timeframe the number of graduates would need to increase to
the 5600/year-10,200/year levels.
FURTHER READING
[47]I had a prior article that constructing a lot of nuclear power
plants is not materially constrained.
The nine components of nuclear plants which have limited suppliers are
being built up by Areva and South Korea and others. So there will be
more suppliers of currently limited parts. New factories to make
things you need can be started.
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[61]Other progress in quantum computing
[62]Other Quantum computer progress discussed [63]at SC07
The quest to build fully functioning quantum hardware is active on
many fronts. Atomic physicists have seen for some years that the
quantum states of a single atom held at rest in a trap, manipulated
by laser pulses, functions as a highly coherent quantum information
carrier. The ability to perform elementary logic operations on such
a qubit has been well demonstrated.
Unfortunately, atomic physicists are not skilled HPC designers. So,
much work also goes on in the area of novel integrated-circuit
devices, in which the necessary quantum control is harder to
demonstrate, but from which a large-scale device could be more
readily created than it could be with trapped-atom technology. Two
of these efforts are represented by leading practitioners on our
panel: Will Oliver is a specialist in superconducting electronics,
in which quantum behavior results not because the circuits are
atomic-scale, but because of the special physical properties of the
superconducting state. He has interesting results on a potentially
scalable Josephson-junction circuit. Another panelist, Eli
Yablonovich, is an expert on the creation of qubits using
individual atomic impurities in semiconductors (yes, he is also the
inventor of the photonic bandgap effect). The control of individual
atomic impurities and individual electrons in electronic devices
has been a beautiful technological feat of recent years, which has
opened up many novel possibilities, quantum and otherwise, for new,
ultradense integrated devices.
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More Recent Articles
* [77]Big nuclear power plans from China, India and Russia
* [78]One teraflop AMD R680 GPGPU due in Q1 2008
* [79]More speculation on a US-Iran war
* [80]DC-based futurists and analysts pick top 12 areas for
innovation by 2025
* [81]Part 2: Widespread use of biomarker tests
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