[tt] advanced nanotechnology - 4 new articles
Eugen Leitl
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Thu Nov 1 09:00:26 UTC 2007
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Subject: advanced nanotechnology - 4 new articles
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"[2]advanced nanotechnology" - 4 new articles
1. [3]Superlative forecasters exist and being a scout of good
forecasters
2. [4]90% future prediction accuracy for Game theory model
3. [5]Infrared light used as better optical tweezers on silicon
4. [6]Programmable-metallization-cell (PMC) memory, or nano-ionic
memory could start replacing flash memory in 18 months
5. [7]More Recent Articles
6. [8]Search advanced nanotechnology
[9]Superlative forecasters exist and being a scout of good forecasters
[10]Richard Jones of softmachines.org commented about how forecasting
is unreliable because of bad forecasts He lists a prediction by Glenn
Seaborg, then chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, predicting in
1971 that there would be 2100 billion Kwh of generating power for
nuclear power in the USA in 2000. There was 780 billion kwh. It was a
relatively linear prediction based upon the buildout rate in 1971 and
the projection of known license applications out to 1976. This was
part of a discussion where Richard is trying to show that futurism
cannot be reliable and that superlative technology predictions should
be abandoned. I completely disagree with him.
[figure2.gif]
Of course in 1971 there was only about 50 billion kwh of nuclear
power. So the right prediction was 1600% growth over 30 years instead
of 4800%. So 10% per year growth rate instead of 13.75%.
Most forecasters are not very good. However, it is a relative thing
like baseball. Hitting at a 0.400 rate or higher and you are a hall of
famer. Hitting at 0.150 or less and you do not make the major leagues.
Plus there is the quality of the swings.
The sport of being able to spot seemingly high profile bad predictions
is a mostly useless endeavor. It is like a scout picking someone for
the Yankees because they played well in the government civil service
leagues and then people marveling at the inadequate performance. I
don't understand man Glenn Seaborg led the Atomic Energy Commission
league. He was following in the grand tradition of expert forecasters
like, hmm, no one from the Atomic Energy Commission has a good track
record of forecasting. The census bureau does alright but those
predictions are that most people alive stay alive and get older while
they are alive and we will have a certain rate of births and
immigration somewhat correlate to what happened in preceding years.
Man I thought Glenn had the stuff to be a good predictor of energy
markets. He had that long history of being a politician and a
bureaucrat. What a disappointment. I am shocked. Shocked. that his
prediction was not better.
The vast majority of the impact is from those who are very good.
Plus better predictions are from those who would stand to make or lose
money based upon the accuracy of their prediction. What were the best
commodities traders predicting ?
Billionaire Jim Rogers, legendary commodities trader, who picked the
bottom of the commodities bull market in 1999. With George Soros, Jim
Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970. I had bought his 2004 book
and knew that he had a good record on commodities. He identified the
impact of the rise of China on commodities well in advance.
[11]A google search with a lot discussion about Jim rogers picking the
1999 bottom
[12]Jim Rogers book on the long commodity boom he predicted starting
in 1999
So the flaw is in looking to regulatory bodies where there are people
with a government job putting together a forecast for accuracy.
Sources that are consistently wrong should not be turned to again and
again for another prediction.
Do you also look for Securities and exchange commission civil servant
to give you stock picks ? Would you then cite a book on how most
people, even "experts", underperform the indexes in stock portfolio
performance.
The better course of action is to look and find the consistent winners
in picks and predictions and strategy.
Celebrating forecasting losers who have some kind of claim to
authority but inaccurate predictions is bad strategy. All I respect is
proven accuracy on predictions and the ability to select the correct
high impact factors.
The list of losers is long. It is useful to know why they were losers
and what the flaw was in thinking that they should have been right.
Learn the lessons for identifying winners. Accept the unbiased
feedback of the facts and results.
Forecasting is another area to seek out those who are Superlative.
Superlative forecasters: they exist too.
A good forecaster also needs to be a scout of other forecasters. As a
scout of forecasters one has to have the skills to identify what
quality predictions look like. It is seeing the ability of the
forecaster to spot the right big trends from the root cause. Being
able to know an earthquake of a certain size will generate tsunamis
and where they will hit. Saying that someone who tries to throw a dart
from 29 paces (the nuclear prediction) is a bad forecaster when they
hit the wall 4 feet above the board is not correct. It is knowing that
throwing in the right direction and hitting the barn from 29 paces was
actually a decent throw. It is also knowing that the forecaster was
not very good based on his use of a linear projection prediction
without having a more sophisticated model.
It was actually not a horrible prediction. But it was inferior because
it was only a linear projection without identification of key factors
with which the projection could be updated. It was also inferior for
not identifying key factors such as the potential development of
nuclear fusion, vastly superior wind and solar, lower natural gas
prices etc...
Jim Rogers was good not just for picking the bottom but for getting
the reasons right for why there was a bottom and why there would be a
commodity boom. Plus he figured out how he and those who believed him
could make a lot of money by his being right.
Superlative scouts and identifiers of superlative forecasters and
forecasting methods: they exist too.
It is useful to know that there can be track record for technological
forecasting. There is a track record for sports futurists. I would not
turn to a university professor in some field related to sports or a
government official in charge of an department related to overseeing
sports. I would turn to sports handicappers. People who have a track
record of picking winners and whose track record has remained good
over recent years (not resting on past glory). Also, I would try to
look at the specific record for the specific sport. Don't ask the
college football whiz about horse racing. There are plenty of publicly
available forecasts on different aspects of technology. The more
useful and profitable exercise is looking at who has a good record
with technology forecasting. Also, industry types who predict
Microsoft will maintain operating system market share are less useful
than say Steve Jurvetson, Peter Thiel types who pick startup winners
that become multi-billion dollar companies.
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[26]90% future prediction accuracy for Game theory model
[27]Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has led a shift in political science
toward quantitative models. Analyses of his model of political
decision-making show that it has a 90 percent accuracy rate.
[28]Like a 0.1 version of the fictional character Hari Seldon of the
Asimov Foundation series.
The elements of the model are players standing in for the real-life
people who influence a negotiation or decision. At each round of
the game, players make proposals to one or more of the other
players and reject or accept proposals made to them. Through this
process, the players learn about one another and adapt their future
proposals accordingly. Each player incurs a small cost for making a
proposal. Once the accepted proposals are good enough that no
player is willing to go to the trouble to make another proposal,
the game ends. The accepted proposals are the predicted outcome.
To accommodate the vagaries of human nature, the players are cursed
with divided souls. Although all the players want to get their own
preferred policies adopted, they also want personal glory. Some
players are policy-wonks who care only a little about glory, while
others resemble egomaniacs for whom policies are secondary. Only
the players themselves know how much they care about each of those
goals. An important aspect of the negotiation process is that by
seeing which proposals are accepted or rejected, players are able
to figure out more about how much other players care about getting
their preferred policy or getting the glory.
The main reason that the model generates more reliable predictions
than experts do is that "the computer doesn't get bored, it doesn't
get tired, and it doesn't forget," he says. In the analysis of
nuclear technology development in Iran, for example, experts
identified 80 relevant players. Because no individual can keep
track of all the possible interactions between so many players,
human analysts focus on five or six key players. The lesser players
may not have a lot of power, Buena de Mesquita says, but they tend
to be knowledgeable enough to influence how key decision-makers
understand the issues. His model can keep track of those influences
when a human can't.
"Given expert input of data for the variables for such a model, it
would not surprise me in the least to see that it would perform
well," says Branislav L. Slantchev, a political scientist and game
theorist at the University of California at San Diego.
He points out that the model relies on having a considerable amount
of expert input. "Honestly, if you had all this information,"
Slantchev says, "you should be able to predict fairly well how the
issue would be resolved." The main reason that the model does this
better than experts is that it "strips ideological blindfolds,
cultural prejudice, and normative commitments that very often color
the view of experts."
So this shows that by training oneself and learnnig what the proper
inputs are in determining a future outcome and then rigorously
reducing biases and focusing solely on an accurate assessment and
prediction then an expert person could also achieve near 90% accuracy
in predictions.
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[42]Infrared light used as better optical tweezers on silicon
[43]What's new in the optical tweezer from MIT's Matt Lang and David
Appleyard is that they used infrared light to move particles on
silicon, the basis of microchips. (Unlike visible light, the infrared
does not bounce off the silicon.) That means that MIT's optical
tweezer can be used not just for study but to build structures on the
surface of chips.
[b711507e-ga.gif]
16 live E. coli cells to spell out "MIT" on a chip
Lang and Appleyard proved their technique by getting 16 live E.
coli cells to spell out "MIT" on a chip. The long-term potential is
more practical: Lang envisions using the system to cram
high-resolution sensors in very small spaces -- for disease
detectors, for example -- and to connect silicon-based electronics
to living tissues and other "biological interfaces."
Arthur Ashkin, a retired Bell Laboratories scientist who is
considered the father of optical tweezers, cautioned that the MIT
work could not be considered a breakthrough, since no devices using
the technology have yet been built.
[44]Functional integration of optical trapping techniques with silicon
surfaces and environments can be realized with minimal modification of
conventional optical trapping instruments offering a method to
manipulate, track and position cells or non-biological particles over
silicon substrates.
This technique supports control and measurement advances including
the optical control of silicon-based microfluidic devices and
precision single molecule measurement of biological interactions at
the semiconductor interface. Using a trapping laser in the near
infra-red and a reflective imaging arrangement enables object
control and measurement capabilities comparable to trapping through
a classical glass substrate. The transmission efficiency of the
silicon substrate affords the only reduction in trap stiffness. We
implement conventional trap calibration, positioning, and object
tracking over silicon surfaces. We demonstrate control of multiple
objects including cells and complex non-spherical objects on
silicon wafers and fabricated surfaces.
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[58]Programmable-metallization-cell (PMC) memory, or nano-ionic memory could
start replacing flash memory in 18 months
[59]A new type of memory technology could lead to thumb drives or
digital-camera memory cards that store a terabyte of information--more
than most hard drives hold today. The first examples of the new
technology, which could also slash energy consumption by more than 99
percent, could be on the market within 18 months
The new type of memory, called programmable-metallization-cell
(PMC) memory, or nano-ionic memory, has been under development at
the University of Arizona and at companies such as Sony and IBM.
Nano-ionic memory is significantly faster than flash memory, and
the speed of some experimental cells has rivaled that of DRAM,
which is orders of magnitude faster than flash.
The memory could also prove easy to make. Recently, the Arizona
group published work demonstrating that nano-ionic memory can be
made from materials conventionally used in computer memory chips
and microprocessors. That could make it easier to integrate with
existing technologies, and it would mean less retooling at
factories, which would appeal to manufacturers.
Another reason that ionic memory is attractive is that it uses
extremely low voltages, so it could consume as little as a
thousandth as much energy as flash memory. In theory, it could also
achieve much higher storage densities--bits of information per unit
of surface area--than current technologies can.
Each memory cell consists of a solid electrolyte sandwiched between
two metal electrodes. The electrolyte is a glasslike material that
contains metal ions. Ordinarily, the electrolyte resists the flow
of electrons. But when a voltage is applied to the electrodes,
electrons bind to the metal ions, forming metal atoms that cluster
together. These atoms form a virus-sized filament that bridges the
electrodes, providing a path along which electrical current can
flow. Reversing the voltage causes the wire to "dissolve," Kozicki
says. The highly resistive state of the electrolyte and the other,
low-resistance, state can be used to represent zeroes and ones.
Because the metal filament stays in place until it's erased,
nano-ionic memory is nonvolatile, meaning that it doesn't require
energy to hold on to information, just to read it or write it.
William Gallagher, a senior manager for exploratory
nonvolatile-memory research at IBM Research, says that nano-ionic
memory is one of several promising next-generation memory
technologies. These include MRAM, which stores information using
magnetic fields, and phase-change memory, which stores information
in a way similar to that used to store bits on DVDs. Gallagher says
that ionic memory's competitors have a head start on it. MRAM chips
are already sold for some special applications, such as devices
that will be exposed to harsh environments. But MRAM may also prove
better for high-speed memory applications than as a replacement for
flash, so it may not compete directly with nano-ionic memory.
Samsung, however, could be selling a phase-change-based
flash-replacement memory within a year.
Still, nano-ionic memory may not be far behind. A few companies
have licensed nano-ionic-memory technology developed at the
University of Arizona. These include Qimonda, based in Germany;
Micron Technologies, based in Boise, ID; and a Bay Area
stealth-mode startup. The startup is well on the way to producing
its first memory devices, which Kozicki says could be available
within 18 months. These first chips, however, won't rival hard
drives in memory density, he says.
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69. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Search=64651;10240;nano-ionic%20memory,future,computer%20memory;Programmable-metallization-cell%20(PMC)%20memory,%20or%20nano-ionic%20memory%20could%20start%20replacing%20flash%20memory%20in%2018%20months;98694
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71. http://www.talkr.com/app/text_to_audio.app?feed_url=http%3a%2f%2ffeeds.feedburner.com%2fblogspot%2fadvancednano&permalink=http%3a%2f%2ffeeds.feedburner.com%2f~r%2fblogspot%2fadvancednano%2f~3%2f177547341%2fprogrammable-metallization-cell-pmc.html&src=5
72. LYNXIMGMAP:file://localhost/tmp/mutt.html#outbrainMap_64651_3
73. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/177431703/engineers-develop-worlds-most-complex.html
74. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/176804906/wealthy-people-still-movtivated-to-be.html
75. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/176752992/gene-therapy-radiation-protection.html
76. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/176269196/lunar-lander-challenge-is-yesterday-and.html
77. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/blogspot/advancednano/~3/176269197/more-on-darpa-urban-grand-challenge.html
78. http://tagline.feedblitz.com/nfc?affid=10059&sender=cf515ead64587146fb6815a2a013d226,feedblitz.com&rcpt=8da0e5c5ebdabb2bd85a8a5d3a603a7c,leitl.org&ranstr=f2afe53b-884e-11dc-bd4b-003005ce&group=64651
79. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3w2NDY1MXxldWdlbkBsZWl0bC5vcmd8OTg2OTQ=_
80. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?Subscriptions=64651
81. http://www.feedblitz.com/f
82. http://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?EmailRemove=_Mjk4NzI1M3x8ZXVnZW5AbGVpdGwub3JnfDk4Njk0_
83. http://www.feedblitz.com/
84. http://www.feedblitz.com/
----- End forwarded message -----
--
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
______________________________________________________________
ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org
8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE
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