[tt] [wta-talk] Clarke: BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists

[Eugen Leitl]

----- Forwarded message from "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu> -----

From: "Hughes, James J." <James.Hughes at trincoll.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 May 2007 14:16:23 -0400
To: World Transhumanist Association Discussion List <wta-talk at transhumanism.org>
Subject: [wta-talk] Clarke: BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists
Reply-To: World Transhumanist Association Discussion List <wta-talk at transhumanism.org>

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0703.html

BREAKPOINT: terrorists vs. transhumanists

by Richard A. Clarke

Former counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke's BREAKPOINT novel, set in
the year 2012, is based on emerging technologies. "Globegrid," a
high-speed global network, links supercomputers worldwide. Combined with
advanced AI software, it promises to reverse-engineer the brain,
revolutionize genomics, enable medical breakthroughs, develop advanced
human-machine interfaces, and allow for genetic alterations and even
uploading consciousness. But it spurs a terrorist-fundamentalist Luddite
backlash against transhumanists, as hackers take down the power grid,
and destroy vital international data and telecom links, communications
satellites, and biotech firms.

Originally published in Breakpoint, G.P. Putnam's Sons, January 2007.

Author's Note

In The Scorpion's Gate, I projected a world in 2010, with the United
States and China competing politically and economically for a dwindling
supply of increasingly expensive oil and gas. That competition naturally
took them to the Persian Gulf, where the largest oil deposits remained.
The Persian Gulf of 2010 was unstable, with the United States
threatening Iran, and fundamentalist Islamic forces emerging in Saudi
Arabia. Corruption and giant corporations made Washington a political
battleground. While I noted at the time of publication that the work was
not meant to be predictive, many of the trends in the novel have
developed and are dominating the news.

Breakpoint, set in 2012, is meant to be predictive, at least about
technology. It may read to some like science fiction, but it is based on
emerging technologies that are the subject of research today. Scientists
and engineers differ in their views about when the research will result
in deployed technology, but their differences are most often a
discussion of "when," not "if."

This novel is intended to project you a few years ahead, to start
readers thinking now about the political, social, and economic changes
that technology is about to create. Those changes could be wrenching,
creating tensions in our society. A woman's right to choose, the
teaching of evolution, and stem-cell research have already created
social and political discord in the United States. The coming
technological events may make these current controversies seem like a
practice round, a warm-up. For the next debate may be about "what is a
human": Should humans change the species with human-machine interfaces
and genetic alterations?

The opening rounds have already occurred. The Transhumanist movement is
real and has regular meetings around the country. In 2002, the National
Science Foundation issued a stunning report, "Converging Technologies
for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology,
Information Technology and Cognitive Science." The report, which overall
has an upbeat and optimistic tone, concludes that connections between
the human brain and computers will transform the way humans work, other
technologies will eliminate disabilities and diseases that have plagued
the human condition for centuries, and human creativity will flourish
due to both improved understanding of the human mind and enhancements to
the brain. A year later, the President's Council on Bioethics issued its
report, "Beyond Therapy: Biotechnology and the Pursuit of Happiness"
which took a somewhat dimmer view of using technology to enhance human
beings. Chaired by Leon Kass, a fellow at the American Enterprise
Institute, the commission included conservative political figures such
as Francis Fukuyama and Charles Krauthammer. They believe that genetic
science should not be used to enhance human performance, only to fix
mistakes that make some humans less healthy than the norm. In 2004,
Californians voted on a referendum on stem cell research and approved
funding for research. Court fights have delayed the spending of state
monies.

As to some of the specifics in Breakpoint:

-- The concept of Globegrid arises from the fact that supercomputers in
Japan, the United States, and Russia have already been linked through
Internet 2, a new high speed networked being developed by a consortium
of 207 universities. U.S. and European labs are actually engaged in a
project to reverse engineer the human brain.

-- Living Software does not yet exist, but companies like Watchfire
Fortify, Coverity, and others are already developing software to test
software for human error.

-- Very Light Jets (VLJs) have been approved by the U.S. Federal
Aviation Administration and are in manufacture. They are four-to-six
seat aircraft meant to operate like taxis. Eclipse Aviation's Eclipse500
and Citation's CJ-1 are among the first deployed VLJs.

-- Intelligent video surveillance, in which the software and cameras
(not people) recognize aberrant behavior, are already being deployed by
companies such as DVTel and Vidient in subways, airports, and other
facilities.

-- Exoskeleton suits are already in the prototype phase. The U.S. Army
has teamed with the University of California at Berkeley to develop the
prototype, which will allow soldiers to carry 180 pounds while feeling
as if they were lugging five. Plans on the drawing board at the Army's
Natick Labs in Massachusetts show soldiers being able to run, jump, and
throw the way they are described in the baseball game in Breakpoint. The
other capabilities that make up the full suite of technologies in the
exoskeleton suits (night vision, network connections, GPS, remote
cameras, and vital-system monitoring) are all part of a program called
the Objective Force Warrior Ensemble, set to be deployed by 2010.

-- People in the United States will be driving Chinese-manufactured cars
like the Chery product line in 2007-08. Cars powered by ethanol derived
from switch grass exist today.

-- Driven by the large number of U.S. casualties in Iraq, Marine and
Army amputees are now receiving prosthetics far more advanced than what
is available in the civilian community. Known as sea legs, these new
prosthetics are driven by microprocessors at each joint. They use
innovative new materials and techniques to respond to signals from the
human brain to straighten a leg or flex a muscle. Servicemen and women
who once would have been unable to lead normal civilian lives are now
able to return to the battlefield.

-- Human nerves have already connected artificial ears directly to the
brain. Paralyzed patients are today using their thoughts to move
computer mouse devices. Some patients suffering from severe depression
and other disorders already do have miniature wires leading to parts of
their brain and do have battery packs implanted behind their
collarbones. Other Human-Machine Interfaces (HMIs) are in development.

-- Artificial retinas for people suffering from blindness caused by
diseases such as retinitis pigmentosa or macular degeneration are in the
development phase and have already seen some success in restoring
limited vision in clinical trials. The devices work by implanting a
small chip at the back of the eye that stimulates retinal neurons. They
are powered by solar receptors fed by the light that enters the eye.
Replacing the full eye with a silicon-based optical unit may be
feasible, but is also likely that the ability to regenerate or
transplant an eye may happen sooner and be more appealing.

-- The state of cyber security described in the novel is, unfortunately,
not fiction. Identities (name, date of birth, Social Security number,
credit-card number) are bought and sold in cyberspace hacker chat rooms.
Software coding errors are regularly used by hackers to enter networks
and computers. Scientists at U.S. government national laboratories have
demonstrated the possibility of taking down the power grid through
hacking.

--The company iRobot has sold large numbers of robots to clean floors.
Asimov, the robotic dog, could easily be a reality in the near term.
Sony's Aibo already can mimic the actions of a "real" dog. Moving from
Aibo to the fictional Asimov will require adding voice recognition
technology, a wireless web link, limited artificial-intelligence
capabilities, and advanced motor devices to power its arms and legs. In
some form or another, these technologies all exist today.

-- Performance-enhancing pharmaceuticals (PEPs) is my own name, but the
concept is not fiction. For memory enhancement, a compound known as
CX717 has proven effective in boosting the brain chemical glutamate, the
substance that is key in learning and memory. Studies have shown it
effective in treating narcolepsy and ADD. It has also proven effective
for otherwise healthy individuals who need to stay focused over longer
periods without sleep. For sports, regulatory authorities are fighting
an uphill battle, with gene doping and performance enhancing
pharmaceuticals becoming more sophisticated, more effective, and safer
than steroids. The Pentagon is developing drugs that will allow soldiers
to go for long periods without sleeping.

-- Cellular regeneration of organs and other body parts is in its
infancy but will likely yield real-world results by the end of this
decade. Embryonic stem cells are thought to hold the most promise for
treating a wide range of maladies, from cancer to spinal injuries. Human
adult stem cells are already used to treat a variety of ailments. Fixing
retinas, cloning hair for baldness, and regrowing teeth are all showing
promise. Progress on stem cell research has slowed due to the Bush
administration's unwillingness to fund research on embryonic stem cells.
This decision has slowed progress and shifted much work overseas, where
governments have embraced the promise of this research. It is quite
possible the United States will be left behind in what will be the most
pivotal medical advance since the decoding of the genome.

-- Aircraft without onboard pilots are already in use. I fought a
bureaucratic battle with CIA in 2000 to get them to use the unmanned
Predator to hunt for terrorists and in 2001 to arm the Predator with
missiles. When Predator finally was used to attack terrorists in
Afghanistan and Yemen, it was probably the first time a robot
intentionally killed a human. The U.S. Air Force is now developing
UCAVs, unmanned combat aerial vehicles, fighter planes whose pilots will
sit safely on the ground hundreds or thousands of miles away from the
aircraft. Lockheed has plans for an unmanned version of the F-35.

-- The laser gun depicted in Breakpoint is a technology set to emerge
sometime within the next decade, depending on the prioritization it
receives in Pentagon budget negotiations. The Airborne Laser is being
built by Boeing to mount a laser on a 747 for use against ballistic
missiles. When the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) was first put on the
drawing board in 2001, plans called for a solid-state laser as an
offensive weapon. Although it has been delayed, The Lightweight Tactical
Laser weapon may now be incorporated in the F-35 block 30.

-- The initial mapping of the human genome was complete in 2000.
Detailed mapping of the individual chromosomes is under way, with most
of the existing human chromosomes already mapped. The first genetic
therapy was approved to treat patients in 1990. Today, genetic therapy
is used to fix flaws in some human coding, including sickle-cell anemia,
Huntington's disease, cystic fibrosis and hemophilia.

-- Nanotechnology is already in use in cosmetics, tennis racquets,
paints, and fabrics. The National Nanotechnology Initiative is the
largest new federal science project in recent years. Researchers have
successfully used gold nanoparticles to deliver DNA molecules safely
into cancer cells as part of a program to defeat cancer.

-- The field of Synthetic Biology is also real and has resulted in the
creation of Bio Fab plants, named to sound like the plants (called Fabs)
that made silicon-based computer chips. Synthetic Biology has created
bacteria that seek and invade tumor cells, yeast that produce the
anti-malarial drug precursor artemisinic acid, and biological sources of
renewable energy.

Sometimes you can tell more truth through fiction.

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Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org
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